Baroclinic Zone Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 Is there anything on the NAM's table preventing this thing from coming more West in future runs? Well west is a relative term in this system. You have a huge PV sitting up just N of the GL that will prevent a cutter. Depending upon how sharp the trough is, this thing can come W some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 NAM has tremendous VVs down by the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Odd elongation to the low to the SE, makes you wonder if it's having some issues in deciding where to develop it. Not buying it unless most of the rest of the suite (Euro) comes in with a key so far NW. Could be classic NAM suck, but maybe not. I agree...1-3" unless other guidance confirms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 You can see how the NAM cools the boundary layer through evapo cooling. verbatim nw CT is warmer than ern mass during that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Yeah I think this would be good in between BOS and Gay, but nrly winds should help out as the low develops quickly. Of course, if it were to play out like that. that would be a great way to break out of this slump up your way, pts n and w. definitely makes the rest of the 12z runs entertaining. it's way out of step with the srefs but that doesn't necessarily mean it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Not looking good Ray .... I know how much you wanted the futility record. I agree...1-3" unless other guidance confirms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I agree...1-3" unless other guidance confirms. I will take the over. Each run has been amping up , would not be surprised if Euro has .50 pretty widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 that would be a great way to break out of this slump up your way, pts n and w. definitely makes the rest of the 12z runs entertaining. it's way out of step with the srefs but that doesn't necessarily mean it's wrong. It looks like a March storm with such a garbage boundary layer. It's actually pretty chilly above 800mb so that helps I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 NAM has tremendous VVs down by the Cape. That southern piece of energy looked really juiced on the NAM. That was the one I mentioned the other day to watch out for as it came out of the NW. It was originally getting sheared out as it rounded the base of the trough. Now the NAM has it as a potent piece of energy along with most other guidance. This storm really can become amped up if this piece of energy is for real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Not looking good Ray .... I know how much you wanted the futility record. Just make it worth it....don't 1" here, 1" there me to death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Of course, I won't be here..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Well west is a relative term in this system. You have a huge PV sitting up just N of the GL that will prevent a cutter. Depending upon how sharp the trough is, this thing can come W some. Yeah, this system would not be a cutter but a sharper trough and stronger vort like we see here will bring this system NW, Not buying it until the rest of the 12z suite comes out but have to be encouraged after the runs last night shifted NW and now the nam has as well at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Of course, I won't be here..lol. where are you going? i wouldn't worry about missing a blockbuster quite yet. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Of course, I won't be here..lol. Where you going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Of course, I won't be here..lol. A couple more ticks NW and maybe we do damn well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 That southern piece of energy looked really juiced on the NAM. That was the one I mentioned the other day to watch out for as it came out of the NW. It was originally getting sheared out as it rounded the base of the trough. Now the NAM has it as a potent piece of energy along with most other guidance. This storm really can become amped up if this piece of energy is for real. Can see where the NAM is running with the elongation...there's the two pieces of energy and it may be squashing the southern piece a bit too fast as it sometimes did back when we had actual storms to track. Wouldn't be the first time it's amping too much on the main energy, but we'll see what the rest of the models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I will take the over. Each run has been amping up , would not be surprised if Euro has .50 pretty widespread. Agree, Its starting to look more like the models were 1st advertising when you started the original thread steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 congrats guys! Im very jealous...welcome to last year for the Mid Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Hey guys i read a lot of yalls stuff up here. I quess would be called trolling maybe but, i have learned a lot from yall and very interesting talk and very intertaining! Hope yall get hammered this weekend. Looks like my neck of the woods will be some snow as well. Good luck guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 congrats guys! Im very jealous...welcome to last year for the Mid Atlantic Soundings look like they introduce some instability too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Holy fook! This is what I'm talking about! I'm shaking right now... please NAM be on to something! That S/W was sharper and juiced and west for sure. This would be one of the larger positive busts since helloween! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 That southern piece of energy looked really juiced on the NAM. That was the one I mentioned the other day to watch out for as it came out of the NW. It was originally getting sheared out as it rounded the base of the trough. Now the NAM has it as a potent piece of energy along with most other guidance. This storm really can become amped up if this piece of energy is for real. The euro had the southern piece of energy oo back on 00z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 the qpf on that nam run is on roids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Scott, where are you going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Hey guys i read a lot of yalls stuff up here. I quess would be called trolling maybe but, i have learned a lot from yall and very interesting talk and very intertaining! Hope yall get hammered this weekend. Looks like my neck of the woods will be some snow as well. Good luck guys. Not trolling at all, yea looks like you get some cover too. Hopefully this pans out dynamically then sets us all up for a presidents blast, good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 where are you going? i wouldn't worry about missing a blockbuster quite yet. LOL. Where you going A couple more ticks NW and maybe we do damn well. Center Harbor....Lakes Region NH. Working on some things with the house my folks got. Dendrite I'm torn...do I want a huge nw trend so I get snow up there, because I'll screw myself at home..lol. Besides, if I miss 2-4"..I won't care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 the qpf on that nam run is on roids. Yeah, all of SE MA over 1.25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Yeah, all of SE MA over 1.25" That's a maple mauler for you..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Soundings look like they introduce some instability too. most of the instability down here on the NAM is with the posters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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