ChrisM Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 SSS rule in effect with the Gaps that far west and juiced huh it doesn't look that great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 huh it doesn't look that great Usually it's suppressed and OTS is the point I was trying to make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Usually it's suppressed and OTS is the point I was trying to make. Oh, where ya watchin the game tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Oh, where ya watchin the game tomorrow? I'm not going to watch them lose by 25 points to Syracuse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF WHERE THE 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS AXIS WILL BE...AND A LACK OF STRONG OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE...BANDING/ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ANY BANDING POTENTIAL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE JUST OFFSHORE. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM AROUND 0.15 TO 0.50 INCHES...HIGHEST TO THE EAST. WITH EVERYTHING ELSE CONSIDERED...LOOKING AT MOSTLY 1 OR 2 INCHES FOR THE CWA. WILL GO WITH AN ADVISORY FOR PART OF SE CT AND FOR EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST. Hmmm, not a bullish forecast from Box. I'm guessing we could end up with just a heavy coating this far NW of the coast. Would have really liked some snow for the ski areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I'm not going to watch them lose by 25 points to Syracuse You're being generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Since looking at 12z EURO yesterday, I have been in their camp, the HPC joined following the 0z Runs of today and has been there all day. We may still see some settling in the 0z run because the convection will have fired by 0z/already has. So the models should be able to get a handle on these actual small lows being there. There's another riding over Disney heading east that kind of becomes one of the "lows" well east tonight. That's the one the RGEM develops chiefly, hosing us. Winds have gone north in myrtle beach, we have a closed low approaching the obx. It's very vague. We aren't going to see much for many hours I don't think...just some hints of where the low is/will form. One of the things that's concerning is almost all the moisture is offshore. In time the flow comes around enough that it comes north but I remember Don Kent back in the late 70s with a similar situation where most of us were progged for 3-6/4-8 talking about it turning up the coast....next coast it hit was Labrador. Everything seems to be mostly on course with the Euro but we've not got a lot of room to spare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Man, back in the day that nogaps image would raise laptops, its actually on the western side of guidance lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Hmmm, not a bullish forecast from Box. I'm guessing we could end up with just a heavy coating this far NW of the coast. Would have really liked some snow for the ski areas. That's not BOX..It's OKX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Hmmm, not a bullish forecast from Box. I'm guessing we could end up with just a heavy coating this far NW of the coast. Would have really liked some snow for the ski areas. That's OKX--but just the same, I htink you're on target with your expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Cooling off quickly here..down to 35.5/24 Snow or mix echos closing in on NYC area now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 We may still see some settling in the 0z run because the convection will have fired by 0z/already has. So the models should be able to get a handle on these actual small lows being there. There's another riding over Disney heading east that kind of becomes one of the "lows" well east tonight. That's the one the RGEM develops chiefly, hosing us. It's very vague. We aren't going to see much for many hours I don't think...just some hints of where the low is/will form. One of the things that's concerning is almost all the moisture is offshore. In time the flow comes around enough that it comes north but I remember Don Kent back in the late 70s with a similar situation where most of us were progged for 3-6/4-8 talking about it turning up the coast....next coast it hit was Labrador. Everything seems to be mostly on course with the Euro but we've not got a lot of room to spare. Oh, agree was just noting that winds had veered north, seems like guidance washes this out for a time, focuses se, then consolidates once again ne, but well south and east to be relevant. Too many cooks in the kitchen, but even small changes can make big differences, the baroclinic ribbon is robust and of course well above sst's. Will be a fun night, not much sleep but this is what we love to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Only buoy I could find with an easterly component near the area is off SC. Station 41013 NDBC Location: 33.436N 77.743W Date: Fri, 10 Feb 2012 22:50:00 UTC Winds: SSE (160°) at 17.5 kt gusting to 21.4 kt Significant Wave Height: 4.9 ft Dominant Wave Period: 5 sec Mean Wave Direction: S (176°) Atmospheric Pressure: 29.98 in and falling Air Temperature: 63.7 F Dew Point: 57.2 F Water Temperature: 66.9 F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Only buoy I could find with an easterly component near the area is off SC. Station 41013 NDBC Location: 33.436N 77.743W Date: Fri, 10 Feb 2012 22:50:00 UTC Winds: SSE (160°) at 17.5 kt gusting to 21.4 kt Significant Wave Height: 4.9 ft Dominant Wave Period: 5 sec Mean Wave Direction: S (176°) Atmospheric Pressure: 29.98 in and falling Air Temperature: 63.7 F Dew Point: 57.2 F Water Temperature: 66.9 F fits in perfectly with the meso low that formed ne of mt pleasant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 fits in perfectly with the meso low that formed ne of mt pleasant Yup. Worth watching that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Cooling off quickly here..down to 35.5/24 Snow or mix echos closing in on NYC area now 28/22, SSS rule is being ignored. Should be interesting to see this thing go boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 If you all want to migrate on over, there is a nowcaating/obs/disco thread pinned. This thread is pretty long now anyways. Discuss all you want in the other thread. http://www.americanw...2-observations/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Oh, agree was just noting that winds had veered north, seems like guidance washes this out for a time, focuses se, then consolidates once again ne, but well south and east to be relevant. Too many cooks in the kitchen, but even small changes can make big differences, the baroclinic ribbon is robust and of course well above sst's. Will be a fun night, not much sleep but this is what we love to do. lol you are pulling an all nighter for a coating on the grass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 If you all want to migrate on over, there is a nowcaating/obs/disco thread pinned. This thread is pretty long now anyways. Discuss all you want in the other thread. http://www.americanw...2-observations/ Why do so many make anyway anyways? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Usually it's suppressed and OTS is the point I was trying to make. LOL... dude its not going to be way OTS when the event is 12 hours away lol. Maybe like 3-4 days out yea.. but not 12 hours out. Final Call: MHT: Trace (Hopefully Nothing) ORH: 1.2 KTOL: 1.4 BOS: 1.5 TAUT: 3.5 Jackpot: Fall River: 6.5 Inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 lol you are pulling an all nighter for a coating on the grass? I have no idea if it even snows, I love how it all comes together, the meteorology, obs up and down the coast, how much waa precip occurs...........its a passion, I expect nothing, and even if I get nothing its how this evolves thats so amazing, model tracking is le miz............this is exceptional, nowcasting is incredible. Missing the evolution of this event would be a shame no matter what happens in my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 28/22, SSS rule is being ignored. Should be interesting to see this thing go boom. Welcome back, Pete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2012 Author Share Posted February 11, 2012 Why do so many make anyway anyways? To annoys people like you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Why do so many make anyway anyways? What are yous guys doing tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Oh, agree was just noting that winds had veered north, seems like guidance washes this out for a time, focuses se, then consolidates once again ne, but well south and east to be relevant. Too many cooks in the kitchen, but even small changes can make big differences, the baroclinic ribbon is robust and of course well above sst's. Will be a fun night, not much sleep but this is what we love to do. It's kind of a long boring night, at least until midnightish. There's no "tell" here for hours...just kind of in limbo. If we were already seeing a major convective flareup off Florida we may have had an indication bad things were happening, not the case, about exactly what the 12h 12z euro forecast to the T there. The southern s/w appears to be running a bit north of even the 18z guidance. RUC seems to be adjusting that way too, stronger, maybe a smidge slower. I'd think that'd be a good thing. RUC surface progs are likely to be mostly useless outside of a few hours. At 500 it's been pretty good and matched the Euro pretty well for most of the day. It's just in the last few hours as things have really started to spin up that it seems to want to lag the earlier models...and water vapor seems to confirm. There's just absolutely nothing out there yet to refute the 12z Euro in principle...so...we wait and watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 I have no idea if it even snows, I love how it all comes together, the meteorology, obs up and down the coast, how much waa precip occurs...........its a passion, I expect nothing, and even if I get nothing its how this evolves thats so amazing, model tracking is le miz............this is exceptional, nowcasting is incredible. Missing the evolution of this event would be a shame no matter what happens in my backyard. ditto from afar. this is a perfect storm to nowcast because what seems like a stochastic process of which low takes over has been a challenge for models. buoys, wind directions, upstream obs... bad time to have spotty internet. sometimes I think the chase is almost as good as the destination... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Welcome back, Pete. Hey Mike! Great to be back in NE holding a vigil over 1-3".lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 dont shoot the messenger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 first run of the hrr that really shows nice echoes consolidating south of the area. i know i know its the herrrrrrrrrrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIcoastalWX Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Interesting dewpoint swings along the coast. At first I thought it was just me but I noticed the coastal airport reports - especially east of New Have were also showing some big hourly swings. Until the last few hours anyway... since then the dewpoints have been steadily climbing along with the temp. I am currently sitting at 44.1 with a dewpoint of 38 and a brisk SSW wind. Time to start re-considering those predicted snowfall amounts down this way...??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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