ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 WxChallenge was interesting too for New Orleans today. I was 2nd highest out of WCSU in precip at 0.25 and I was still too low, the consensus was closer to 0.15 I think Yeah went 0.18 and ended up 3rd in CAT 4 for the country, 34 in the nation overall....not bad for a sophomore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 This is a storm that should be right up Messenger's alley. he does his best analysis on storms like this..and judging by his posts he thinks it's coming west Kev thanks, I did, little wobbly after the 18z GFS/RGEM. It's too soon to tell if they're legitimately onto something. GFS had some glaring QPF issues in the south on the 18z, I have a hard time going along with it. RGEM wasn't much better. The RUC and WV both continue to confirm we've got a more formidable s/w than models expected. There's also the issue of the max that's apparently going to initiate the low which does have the capability of playing the role of the TT patented cosmic dildo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 This is a storm that should be right up Messenger's alley. he does his best analysis on storms like this..and judging by his posts he thinks it's coming west I really dont see the 84 cooridor getting shut out from this despite crappy output recently. I can see you squeaking out 2" if things break right. SE CT should see atleast 3". If I was in the Litchfield hills I'd be worried for a dusting or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I might be pulling a Kev, but come on. People are jumping ship after an off hour GFS run and RGEM run? First of all, the RGEM seems to always bail last second, second of all, the 12z EURO looked good for those east of ORH. I'm going to enjoy my 3" of snow. Coastalwx and weathafella will enjoy their 4". Bob to messenger will enjoy their 6". Hopefully Phil can get 5" of paste. MPM/mrg - 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 18z rgem did the moonwalk for sne basically a non event outside extreme se mass and the cape. What a waste of road salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I might be pulling a Kev, but come on. People are jumping ship after an off hour GFS run and RGEM run? First of all, the RGEM seems to always bail last second, second of all, the 12z EURO looked good for those east of ORH. I'm going to enjoy my 3" of snow. Coastalwx and weathafella will enjoy their 4". Bob to messenger will enjoy their 6". Hopefully Phil can get 5" of paste. MPM/mrg - 1" I think the Berks will see some as well, because theres the front coming from the NW and there'll be some LL moisture. Most of CNE/NNE will see some surprise 1-2" amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 What a waste of road salt. The rgem s*cks a**! Why are ppl bailing over this model? Ride the EURO...expect wobbles, but overall an advisory snowfall where BOX has them posted now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Final Call. That's how I'd have drawn it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 hopefully that precip over MD/DE comes up and saturates these low dew-points, then sets us up for later on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 What a waste of road salt. Who cares the town still takes my 9k in taxes whether they use it or not lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 hopefully that precip over MD/DE comes up and saturates these low dew-points, then sets us up for later on.... Saw your comment, was looking at the Euro. It seemed to do pretty well down there today in LA. When looking at the strength at 5h, was very good there too. At closer look, the surface is a bit funky. We have the Euro also trying to spawn the low WAY to the SE under the convection.... a struggle takes place and then a low pops off the Carolinas. Without that we're toast for a more serious event. If we did not have that 3rd s/w complex none of this is an issue, we'd have the low take it's rightful place much closer to Hatteras. As it is, I would still think we're seeing some type of loop in the models and that we're pretty much on course. EDIT: Frankly there's nothing to make me believe the shift in the GFS/RGEM are anything more than off hour feedback. JMHO for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Alright well enjoy whatever comes. Good luck to those down in se areas. Hopefully you get a plastering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tylertheweather Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I really dont see the 84 cooridor getting shut out from this despite crappy output recently. I can see you squeaking out 2" if things break right. SE CT should see atleast 3". If I was in the Litchfield hills I'd be worried for a dusting or less. That is my thinking, and has been since Wednesday. Leading the charge was the 12z EURO from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Alright well enjoy whatever comes. Good luck to those down in se areas. Hopefully you get a plastering. You did a good job at alnost getting to 25k posts before you left..you missed your goal..but close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=ltx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no Low, a weak, maybe not quite closed low offshore of Georgetown. I think that is what becomes our "northern" low in a few hours. Would like to see the winds tighten up a bit around it, give it some definition, but I think that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Harvey seems to be the most bullish for this area follwed by Noyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 hey all, greetings from loon, actually good skiing conditions... and so wish I had better internet so I could track/discuss along with everyone will be driving with the fam back to Boston Saturday evening, hoping to be pleasantly surprised appreciate all the analysis, can't access any model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Just out of curiosity...where is the Nogaps on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Saw your comment, was looking at the Euro. It seemed to do pretty well down there today in LA. When looking at the strength at 5h, was very good there too. At closer look, the surface is a bit funky. We have the Euro also trying to spawn the low WAY to the SE under the convection.... a struggle takes place and then a low pops off the Carolinas. Without that we're toast for a more serious event. If we did not have that 3rd s/w complex none of this is an issue, we'd have the low take it's rightful place much closer to Hatteras. As it is, I would still think we're seeing some type of loop in the models and that we're pretty much on course. EDIT: Frankly there's nothing to make me believe the shift in the GFS/RGEM are anything more than off hour feedback. JMHO for now. Just looking at the QPF fields, the difference is really only like 20-40 miles. Its hard to analyze something like this to within 20 mile (one county width basically) changes between runs. I think that's to be expected with the models. Tonight will be filled with posts about how the low is 10 miles east or west of where it was progged. I think if the models get it to within a like 30 mile cone that's pretty decent given the resolution. Of course, in this situation, 20 miles makes a huge difference in SE Mass...like 3-4" vs 6-8"... but I think these 20-40 mile waffling is almost at the noise level given how complex the set-up is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Just out of curiosity...where is the Nogaps on this? I can never find their site...always get certificate errors. Don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Alright well enjoy whatever comes. Good luck to those down in se areas. Hopefully you get a plastering. Where are you going, Scott? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Here's Dick Tolleris call from 11:00 this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I can never find their site...always get certificate errors. Don't know. you guys always forget about Allans site right here under models, has them all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Just out of curiosity...where is the Nogaps on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 to me looks like jackpot maybe WV and higher areas in maryland./ S PA ......already snowing just east of altoona and adj. parts of MD. and all that steady snow in indiana and ohio yet to move thru those areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 SSS rule in effect with the Gaps that far west and juiced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 That little feature is almost certainly the "low"....most of the models just kind of have it meandering up along the NC coast overnight, off HAT as a weak low that's poorly defined before starting to get its act together. What is also interesting is toggling the 12z/18z GFS...the 12z may have been a bit too far NW with the moisture in the carolinas. It's really tough to tell, if you look along the VA/NC border you can see there are two distinct areas of moisture. The 12z had a mega bullseye right about where the I and N are in Dave's map on Kev's post. The 18z backed away from that a bit and shfited it SE. Certainly the 12z seems to have placed another erroneous bullseye. The 18z GFS now has the moisture and the subsequent northern low in almost the identical spot to the 12z Euro at 9z tonight. The 12z GFS is out on its ear, it's too far NW at 23z with the moisture and it's that moisture that it expanded NW over a lot of you later. I think that's going to be an error, the 18z backed away and it maches the euro much better and the current radar. sorry guys. we need to watch the low on the NC coast as there's a chance it pops off earlier and saves the day. When you use some of the zoom sites to flip through the various models it's nuts how much of a battle is going on to pinpoint the low placement. The 12z GFS seems to have had placement issues again - near the convection. In short there's zero reason right now to go against the Euro. It matches up very well with what has happened, what is happening, etc. Dumping the 12z GFS is also supported by the 18z GFS ENS which with the NC blob removed is unable to ride as much moisture to the west right from the getgo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jt5019 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF WHERE THE 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS AXIS WILL BE...AND A LACK OF STRONG OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE...BANDING/ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ANY BANDING POTENTIAL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE JUST OFFSHORE. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM AROUND 0.15 TO 0.50 INCHES...HIGHEST TO THE EAST. WITH EVERYTHING ELSE CONSIDERED...LOOKING AT MOSTLY 1 OR 2 INCHES FOR THE CWA. WILL GO WITH AN ADVISORY FOR PART OF SE CT AND FOR EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tylertheweather Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 That little feature is almost certainly the "low"....most of the models just kind of have it meandering up along the NC coast overnight, off HAT as a weak low that's poorly defined before starting to get its act together. What is also interesting is toggling the 12z/18z GFS...the 12z may have been a bit too far NW with the moisture in the carolinas. It's really tough to tell, if you look along the VA/NC border you can see there are two distinct areas of moisture. The 12z had a mega bullseye right about where the I and N are in Dave's map on Kev's post. The 18z backed away from that a bit and shfited it SE. Certainly the 12z seems to have placed another erroneous bullseye. The 18z GFS now has the moisture and the subsequent northern low in almost the identical spot to the 12z Euro at 9z tonight. The 12z GFS is out on its ear, it's too far NW at 23z with the moisture and it's that moisture that it expanded NW over a lot of you later. I think that's going to be an error, the 18z backed away and it maches the euro much better and the current radar. sorry guys. we need to watch the low on the NC coast as there's a chance it pops off earlier and saves the day. When you use some of the zoom sites to flip through the various models it's nuts how much of a battle is going on to pinpoint the low placement. The 12z GFS seems to have had placement issues again - near the convection. In short there's zero reason right now to go against the Euro. It matches up very well with what has happened, what is happening, etc. Dumping the 12z GFS is also supported by the 18z GFS ENS which with the NC blob removed is unable to ride as much moisture to the west right from the getgo. Since looking at 12z EURO yesterday, I have been in their camp, the HPC joined following the 0z Runs of today and has been there all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 http://radar.weather...1101111&loop=no Low, a weak, maybe not quite closed low offshore of Georgetown. I think that is what becomes our "northern" low in a few hours. Would like to see the winds tighten up a bit around it, give it some definition, but I think that's it. Winds have gone north in myrtle beach, we have a closed low approaching the obx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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