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Feb 11/12 Storm Disco II


Baroclinic Zone

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still offers up around .5" or so out here but it's got a ridiculously tight gradient.

Either way this will probably have a tight gradient regardless of track... somewhere is going to go from like 6" to 1-2" in a matter of like 20 miles. All coastal storms seem to be like that. Maybe widespread dusting-2" but then sharp gradient to Advisory or low end Warning criteria snowfall.

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GFS a good tick east of 12z.

Yep, really have to watch the southern stream. It's really ramping up on the vapor, and every single RUC run since this morning is stronger with it. GFS is developing the surface low out under the convection that forms in response to the s/w moving across that's under LA. It's barely notable on the GFS run, and overall the timing on the GFS should have been better but it develops the low way offshore with that associated convection.

Might be a blip like last night's 0z. However it should be noted that the RGEM just went way east too.

That s/w is impressive, I'd have thought it would have been able to round the corner more, but as it turns out these two models are sadly cutting it extremely close now.

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The high is over eastern Nebraska; the low "should" be on the Del Marva.

Such is life in the great year of the nothing fits physics or correlation madness -

With a high over Nebraska, if you put the low on the Del Marva it would probably cut to Montreal, haha. In the grand scheme of things this minor event is a lot better than a rainer.

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Here's the RGEM. Like the 18z GFS it fires off the low under the frontrunning pulse/convection.

Hopefully an error.

Yikes. Good thing the RGEM has seemed pretty useless this year, right up there with the NAM. As much as Kevin sh*ts on the GFS, that 18z run is a bit more concerning. Could definitely be a convection hiccup though.

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18z rgem did the moonwalk for sne basically a non event outside extreme se mass and the cape.

For the record, the 18z GFS appears to have been attrocious with the 5-6 hour QPF around LA. Places like Baton Rouge got over .3...GFS was under a tenth etc.

RGEM wasn't that bad though..was actually decent it would appear maybe someone underdone. Be interested if someone else could verify.

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For the record, the 18z GFS appears to have been attrocious with the 5-6 hour QPF around LA. Places like Baton Rouge got over .3...GFS was under a tenth etc.

RGEM wasn't that bad though..was actually decent it would appear maybe someone underdone. Be interested if someone else could verify.

WxChallenge was interesting too for New Orleans today. I was 2nd highest out of WCSU in precip at 0.25 and I was still too low, the consensus was closer to 0.15 I think

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