Logan11 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I thought that also. It hangs on a longer time now as the primary surface low.... Long enough to hit the Cape good. Maybe in the end this whole dual low idea never happens.... seems like the 18z NAM is putting more emphasis on the more northern of the 2 dual lows than in the 12z run. could give credence to the idea of a slight NW nudge? could have implications if this is seen on other guidance .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Any resemblences to the Dec. 26th storm last year? Certainly a possibility the northern stream could strengthen more and pull this up the coast and turn this into a decent event for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Any resemblences to the Dec. 26th storm last year? Certainly a possibility the northern stream could strengthen more and pull this up the coast and turn this into a decent event for some. i don't think that storm had a southern stream s.w mucking things up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Any resemblences to the Dec. 26th storm last year? Certainly a possibility the northern stream could strengthen more and pull this up the coast and turn this into a decent event for some. Dec 26th? Absolutely not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Scooter, what are your thoughts for Newport? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I thought the Dec 26th storm was a coastal grazer only to shift significantly west in the last 24 hours with the NAM scoring a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I thought the Dec 26th storm was a coastal grazer only to shift significantly west in the last 24 hours with the NAM scoring a win. That had a block and a very strong disturbance igniting cyclogenesis. This guy almost could have done that, if this did not have two separate pieces of energy and instead, was the big nrn piece coming out of the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 Good luck out there Bob, looks good! I'll say thanks but I'm not a luck/congratulatory kind of guy. I've enjoyed tracking this sum b**ch and now it's gon snow, so it's all good. I'll enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 18z nam shifted the precip field west here, I was barely in the .25" range and now its Nw of me by 30 miles Wonder if GYX will revise their dayshift forecast back upward. Their 3PM AFD dropped the WS watch for the midcoast and generally backed off on qpf, which wasn't all that hefty to begin with. I think this is a Halifax hammerer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 scott/phil/john anyone is "latent heat" and it's influence on this storm .....any sort of wild card with the cyclogenesis later tonite/tomm bouys fwiw are running several degrees above normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Scooter, what are your thoughts for Newport? I think you may be a mix overnight, but will go over to snow. My guess would be 2-4 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I think you may be a mix overnight, but will go over to snow. My guess would be 2-4 right now. Thanks Scott. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Someone brought up the RUC, no idea how it'll perform this time we have almost no storms on which to base this year.... But at 18z the WV, RUC and 6h forecasts from the NAM/GFS didn't seem bad. RUC/WV are a little slower with the two main features up north than the GFS, pretty much dead on with the NAM as it turns out. Across the Carolinas, that first pulse doesn't seem to have been handled all that well, be interested to see how that influences things on this next suite where they hopefully get a better adjusted handle. This is going to be a pretty nasty vortmax that is already starting to wrap up..you can see the drying beginnng to occur. In 12 or 18 hours as it's coming off the Carolina coast it's going to be a nasty spin as it starts to get drawn north. I have a hard time believing that we won't see some pretty explosive deepending earlier than modeled. I guess it will come down to how much interference the outside s/ws play...the ones shooting out under the main SW that will run the Gulf Coast tonight..those get out and around and are starting to initiate convection already. Hoping they don't draw to much of the moisture out...could be a very explosive development later tonight and Saturday with this system. Just seems improbable that we don't see some very strong pressure falls with this not long after Hatteras. I will bet anything that the RUC out in its long range brings this low further NW than consensus, just to have it tick slightly SE each hour you get closer to H+0. It does it every single time with coastals. It wouldn't surprise me if a RUC run ends up bombing this off the tip of Cape Cod, lol. It is also usually over-done with QPF (or at least spatially it has too much, too widespread) in the 12-18 hour time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 scott/phil/john anyone is "latent heat" and it's influence on this storm .....any sort of wild card with the cyclogenesis later tonite/tomm bouys fwiw are running several degrees above normal That thought's been kicking in the back of my head. Warmer than average SST's and this cold shot coming in. I thought it might help the northern stream cyclogenesis and shift this puppy significantly west. It just seems to appear the really cold air doesn't make it here in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 That southern s/w is starting to wind up. This is going to be an impressive 12-18 hours to watch as this thing sharpens like a bastage in the next several hours. We should see a pretty intense line of rain rip it up across the south/FL with maybe a brief pause as it all jumps offshore. The band of precip along the coastal Carolinas/FL is actually what the GFS/Euro develop and expand up the coast as everything else moves around. special marine warnings up south of LA, impressive stuff evolving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I really think SE MA and the Cape is the new Gods Country... you guys down there are in for a good time tomorrow. I'd feel comfortable with 4-7" down in that area. This should have a pretty good sharp cut-off from near warning criteria snows to under Advisory level (3"< is advisory in MA right?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 the nam is a snow bomb even out at CHH...it has like a 5000 foot 0C layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 scott/phil/john anyone is "latent heat" and it's influence on this storm .....any sort of wild card with the cyclogenesis later tonite/tomm bouys fwiw are running several degrees above normal The type of "heat" that you are referring to I believe, is the heat through conduction. That's when the near surface of the atmosphere will warm and you'll have more instability....etc. Latent heat is the process of energy or heat being released into the atmosphere. When moisture is condensing it is actually adding heat to the air, because you are going from a gas, to a liquid. Hence why hurricanes are heat engines. Lots of water vapor being converted to cloud droplets. But to answer your question, I don't see the water temps of 4 or 5 degrees above normal, being a big red flag to bringing the lower closer to the coast or more intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 334 PM EST FRI FEB 10 2012 ...ACCUMULATING SNOWS EXPECTED SATURDAY ACROSS EASTERN CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS... .AN OCEAN STORM WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STORM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE REGION BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND THEN SLOWLY OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGINNING AS RAIN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND...THEN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LATER IN THE DAY. CTZ004-MAZ005>007-012>024-RIZ001>008-110445- /O.NEW.KBOX.WW.Y.0008.120211T0900Z-120212T0300Z/ WINDHAM CT-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA- SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA- SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA- WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA- SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA- NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI- EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI- BLOCK ISLAND RI- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...FRAMINGHAM... LOWELL...LAWRENCE...GLOUCESTER...MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO... NORWOOD...CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON...BROCKTON... PLYMOUTH...FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...MATTAPOISETT...CHATHAM... FALMOUTH...PROVINCETOWN...VINEYARD HAVEN...NANTUCKET...FOSTER... SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE...WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL... NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...NEWPORT...BLOCK ISLAND 334 PM EST FRI FEB 10 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY. * LOCATIONS...EASTERN CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW. * FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SNOWFALL REACHING 6 TO 8 INCHES FROM FALL RIVER TO NEW BEDFORD TO PLYMOUTH INCLUDING THE UPPER CAPE AND THE BUZZARD BAY COMMUNITIES. * TIMING...THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL FROM 10 AM TO 3 PM. * IMPACTS...ROADWAYS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY...ESPECIALLY SECONDARY ROADS INCLUDING EXIT AND ENTRANCE RAMPS. * WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SNOW AND/OR ICE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE AFFECTED AREAS...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. ANY SNOW OR ICE WOULD MAKE DRIVING AND WALKING DIFFICULT...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE...ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING...MOTORISTS NEED TO BE ESPECIALLY CAREFUL ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WHERE SLIPPERY SPOTS CAN EASILY DEVELOP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 12z BTV WRF actually has a decent inverted trough from the Albany area southward into NJ... another solution to consider. It really cut back on QPF across SNE but luckily its been about as accurate as the NAM in synoptic events. Meso-scale stuff like upslope is where this model really gets the job done, but it does seem like there will be an inverted trough giving surprise snows to someone a lot further west than the coastal low snows. Someone between those two may get screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 This looks about right given what's modeled right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 With clouds streaming in now..it'll have trouble dropping tonight..I'd guess many of the urban and coastal areas stay in the mid-30s tonight until the precip starts anyway Might be more than just the coast. Pretty much cloudy here for the last couple hours. Congrats SE New England. 38.1/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 This looks about right given what's modeled right now... Good thing I don't live 10 miles west. Can anyone get the 15z srefs to update on the NCEP page? Wouldn't update yesterday either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 the nam is a snow bomb even out at CHH...it has like a 5000 foot 0C layer. Just peaking at the TAN soundings. Fzg hgt is less than 2000ft at the start from what I see. http://68.226.77.253/text/meso/NAM_Ktan.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Tolland FTL?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 New snowfall map is out as well. Shifted everything S & E from this AM. I am on the periphery of the 4-6" now. Basically S Bristol and Plymouth counties and out onto CC are in the 4-6" area now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 18z nam shifted the precip field west here, I was barely in the .25" range and now its Nw of me by 30 miles I think you mean 0.10"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 New snowfall map is out as well. Shifted everything S & E from this AM. I am on the periphery of the 4-6" now. Basically S Bristol and Plymouth counties and out onto CC are in the 4-6" area now. I think you'll be in an interesting area. You may be near the heavy snow, or perhaps in it. From your standpoint, it will be interesting to see how it goes. Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Tolland FTL?? You know Kevin is dying because he hasnt posted like everyother minute cause he's only gonna get like .5" tomorrow lol.. it makes missing the storm bearable for me that Kevin is missing it too. Almost everyone of his posts were trolling this week and he deserves no snow. I'm happy! I feel bad for Scott and ray.. what a crappy winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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