MaineJayhawk Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Euro threw .25" our way.. If we can squeeze a couple inches out of this I'd consider it a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I was looking at hrs 57, 60 & 63 the freezing line and +10C locations with respect to say Boston were very similar to what it had for us yesterday http://mag.ncep.noaa...R&prevImage=yes There could be some BL issues initially for e/se areas...I think further NW it's not much of a concern - though there's less qpf so it's sort of a trade off. NAM is definitely the warmest/wettest. We'll see what the 12z suite brings but I think advisory type snows are not out of the question for some spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 wow really? didn't expect that. If you get that then I probably get close to that and Eric should be giddy. If we can squeeze a couple inches out of this I'd consider it a win. Biggest 12z nam run of our lives coming up......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Biggest 12z nam run of our lives coming up......... I'm preparing for a surging sense of excitement to turn into a sick feeling followed by a hallowness that only a pyschoanalyst could explain. bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I'm preparing for a surging sense of excitement to turn into a sick feeling followed by a hallowness that only a pyschoanalyst could explain. bring it! lol.....The euro made a sizeable jump NW from 12z yesterday, Hopefully we can continue the trend toady on the models, It would suck but would not surprise me that most all storms came NW this winter when you did not want them and when you do want them to they won't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Hopefully for Kevin's sake, this happens and he can get his much needed 1-3". He might lose it otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 He might lose it otherwise Thankfully his soil isn't dry due to last year's record annual rainfall at BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Nice trends overnight. Interesting in that my work schedule this winter has been very intense. I think if we had stuff to track consistently I'd have croaked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jt5019 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 AFTER ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...ALONG WITH OPERATIONAL/ GLOBAL MODEL SUITE...IT APPEARS THAT A LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT IS ON THE HORIZON WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND ENDING SATURDAY MORNING. I CAN FORESEE POPS INCREASING AS WE NEAR THE EVENT...ESPECIALLY COASTAL AND EASTERN LOCALES. HIGHEST POPS CLOSER TO POSSIBLE BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST NW OF SFC LOW AS MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGS TOWARD THE AREA. AGAIN...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO SFC LOW PRESSURE PASSING SE OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...ALTHOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH HOW FAST LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND TO WHAT EXTENT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ADVISORY LEVELS SNOW ACCUMS...ESPECIALLY FOR LONG ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF SRN CT...BUT OVERALL FEEL ANY AMOUNTS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Last year everyone would shrug off a 1-3" pedestrian event, This year were begging for one.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 Don't ever doubt my juju in thread making. It snowed last night at home as well. Honestly I'm not shocked at the better solutions overnight. I think the s/w over the NW was sampled finally and it's having an impact in the overall solutions we're seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 NAM Soundings Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF S%| I%| L% 120211/1000Z 52 24005KT 35.1F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 38| 0| 62 120211/1100Z 53 23003KT 34.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 55| 0| 45 120211/1200Z 54 VRB01KT 33.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 70| 0| 30 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 120211/1300Z 55 VRB01KT 33.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 75| 0| 25 120211/1400Z 56 VRB01KT 33.1F SNOW 12:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08 81| 0| 19 120211/1500Z 57 VRB02KT 32.9F SNOW 10:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051 6:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13 85| 0| 15 120211/1600Z 58 34003KT 32.9F SNOW 11:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051 8:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18 85| 0| 15 120211/1700Z 59 34004KT 32.5F SNOW 7:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.087 7:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.27 88| 0| 12 120211/1800Z 60 35005KT 32.5F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.071 7:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34 86| 0| 14 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 120211/1900Z 61 36006KT 32.4F SNOW 11:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043 8:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.38 90| 0| 10 120211/2000Z 62 36007KT 32.9F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 8:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.39 83| 0| 17 kbos soundings... solid 0.39 total qpf BL warmed a bit, remains borderline throughout AWF, not the prettiest futility buster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Nice trends! Hopefully we can see the trough tighten up a bit more and tick this thing west some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Don't ever doubt my juju in thread making. It snowed last night at home as well. Honestly I'm not shocked at the better solutions overnight. I think the s/w over the NW was sampled finally and it's having an impact in the overall solutions we're seeing. You got lucky...Not shocked either, It was discussed in the other thread what could happen if the trough did a little more digging SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I think the only we ern areas see a bigger bump up is if the low develops a little quicker and combo with pulling the low a hair more west. For central and western areas, you definitely need help on both ends, but it is possible. Lets hope for some good trends here. I won't be around, but want to come home to some white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
860Wx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Nice trends! Hopefully we can see the trough tighten up a bit more and tick this thing west some. A lot of people probably don't want to see this go west. Looks marginal for some areas in the BL to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Don't ever doubt my juju in thread making. It snowed last night at home as well. Honestly I'm not shocked at the better solutions overnight. I think the s/w over the NW was sampled finally and it's having an impact in the overall solutions we're seeing. That's my juju, and don't you go stealing it. I just couldn't stay up to make it to see the snow but it came down in a nice light fashion from what the neighbor was just telling me. All things considered....we're creeping up the scale here. Flurries a few days ago, a bonafide dusting to 1/2" around the area last night, and hopefully a widespread advisory event this weekend. It's not wall to wall HECS, but at least it's snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 The euro / nam combo would give 2-4 from Hfd east. The worry for coastal areas of course is how much is wasted as rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 A lot of people probably don't want to see this go west. Looks marginal for some areas in the BL to begin with. A 50 mile west trend won't hurt that. In fact I think better vertical motion is probably more important for cooling things down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 A 50 mile west trend won't hurt that. In fact I think better vertical motion is probably more important for cooling things down. Yeah, I just don't want to see a sheared mess of a system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 The euro / nam combo would give 2-4 from Hfd east. The worry for coastal areas of course is how much is wasted as rain Lol you love to say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Don't ever doubt my juju in thread making. It snowed last night at home as well. Honestly I'm not shocked at the better solutions overnight. I think the s/w over the NW was sampled finally and it's having an impact in the overall solutions we're seeing. you stole my thread! LOL. Feb 1st start date and I was dogged for it. Lets get this thing amped up and trend NW for a read deal. Scooter in NH smoking cirrus exhaust while home rips? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Yeah, I just don't want to see a sheared mess of a system. Stronger, more consolidated, and west is better for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 you stole my thread! LOL. Feb 1st start date and I was dogged for it. Lets get this thing amped up and trend NW for a read deal. Scooter in NH smoking cirrus exhaust while home rips? Bazinga! To all of you for taking the bait. Not much to add at this point that hasn't already been said. A little early development, stronger, and a tad west 25-50mi and we're all happy campers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 3z sref shows some light 4" probs for ACK/outer cape....maybe a sign of things to come? I'd be fine with 2" esp. if the cape got a nice little 3-6" sf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 3z sref shows some light 4" probs for ACK/outer cape....maybe a sign of things to come? I'd be fine with 2" esp. if the cape got a nice little 3-6" sf. yeah some of the individual members were a pretty healthy event out this way. new ones should be rolling out soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 just about all the 03z srefs have a pretty decent LP moving ENE from the outer banks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 just about all the 03z srefs have a pretty decent LP moving ENE from the outer banks. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/eplumes/index.php?PRM=Total-SNO&NNC=&SID=PVD&INC=ALL&RT=03&max=&min= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 BOX snippet on weekend system. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. MORE IMPORTANTLY...THE 00Z OP RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR THIS WEEKEND/S FORECAST. THE PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OUT OF QUEBEC ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A RATHER VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE VORTEX...WORKING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP WELL S OF NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT...THE MODELS KEEP THE LOW CENTER OFFSHORE BUT WORK IN A GOOD SLUG OF QPF ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION DURING SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE WILL SEE AT LEAST MINOR ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS...BUT THIS IS NOT SET IN STONE YET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODELS FOR UPDATES...BUT HAVE NOTED A TREND TO KEEP BRINGING MORE PRECIP INTO THE REGION WITH EACH RUN. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 some EURO qpf: BOS: .29 HYA: .51 BDL: .17 ORH: .22 PVD: .35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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