Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 watch the 18z roll in with about 15" for Jerry - hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Thats a no-no Kev. Warn him! Warn him!!! lolSeriously, think you break 6" IYBY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 18Z has the southern stream area of heavy precip closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 Warn him! Warn him!!! lol Seriously, think you break 6" IYBY? Nah. 3-4" tops. Maybe things beak late in the game but my confidence is not high on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 nam might be coming west...but not far enough to help borderline areas. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Thats a no-no Kev. Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 looks drier and east almost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 nam might be coming west...but not far enough to help borderline areas. We'll see. yeap, slightly west.. but could bring higher amount to boston metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Nam doesn't look too different or maybe slightly east with the .25 line...looks great for the cape though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Looking west to me. Whether the precip shield moves west we'll soon see, but I'd wager this is a better run. Someone will end up with 1.0" qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 FWIW the euro ensembles actually would imply a nice comma head appearance over the Cape and maybe se mass..just basing how the isobars look. Better than 00z anwyays. It's pretty much time to abandon ensembles when you are this close, but just saying what they showed. Probably overall a better appearance in general for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Nah. 3-4" tops. Maybe things beak late in the game but my confidence is not high on that. I had me at 4" and you at 5" messenger at 6" if he has no B/L issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 fwiw the nam sim radar doesnt match up at all to what is actually happening I dont really think it means much though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I'm wondering if eastern areas...esp the Cape and SE MA but perhaps even BOS....will get into some pretty good banding on the western flank of the commahead. A lot of the guidance is showing that there could be some good banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 NAM is a little better than 12z, especially for se areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I'm wondering if eastern areas...esp the Cape and SE MA but perhaps even BOS....will get into some pretty good banding on the western flank of the commahead. A lot of the guidance is showing that there could be some good banding. That's my concern. BOS could be extremely close to it...probably another tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 euro qpf: bos: .32 bdl: .12 pvd: .40 hya: .8 orh: .19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 That's my concern. BOS could be extremely close to it...probably another tease. There could be a pretty sharp cutoff to the heavier snow...and I wonder if it ends up inching further west than models have it....esp in response to that potent northern stream...just sort of thinking out load here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 euro qpf: bos: .32 bdl: .12 pvd: .40 hya: .8 orh: .19 Could be a scrub pine strangler for parts of the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I just read this page from top to bottom, the NAM is: 1. A little west. 2. A little east 3. Better for some 4. Worse for some NAM most importantly is igniting a pretty wicked band of precip off the Carolinas after midnight. Forget about it after that...the changes seem to fade off into oblivion on this model after 18 hours. There's a huge, clear struggle to see which batch of convection is going to end up being nearest to the home of the surface low. I really like that in the last 6 hours the NAM ramped up what's going on at 6z tonight near the Carolinas. We're close to seeing the battle won further north, but at 15-18 the moisture transport is muted a bit by teh southern convection still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 NAM is a little better than 12z, especially for se areas. That 850 closes off just S of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Looks like .9 on the outer cape on the nam. Not that it matters much. edit: It's .8 not .9. Pretty impressive that the euro has .8 for hya as well. Congrats Cape! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 seems like the 18z NAM is putting more emphasis on the more northern of the 2 dual lows than in the 12z run. could give credence to the idea of a slight NW nudge? could have implications if this is seen on other guidance .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 There could be a pretty sharp cutoff to the heavier snow...and I wonder if it ends up inching further west than models have it....esp in response to that potent northern stream...just sort of thinking out load here. I left my 2-4" with 2-3 in the "likely" category because of that band. Meaning, the risk to 4" could happen if better banding occurs.I could see a situation where it makes it to..say Weymouth or something , but it stays just east of the city....so close. However, if this gets its act together even 2-3 hrs earlier...it may push everything like 20 miles or so further west. On the other hand, I hope it's not crappy echoes just west of that band, because that could be a problem as well..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 That 850 closes off just S of us. As excited for this area and a lot of us as I've been in a long long time. It's quite possible we're going to see the developments to the north continue to improve, I don't think I buy the fade that takes place 12-18h in the 18z. Even with that you can see the improvement to the north. This has the potential to slide well into the major storm category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 So the NAM is a 2 pulser. We get the initial WAA precip followed by a lull before the low intensifies S of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 There could be a pretty sharp cutoff to the heavier snow...and I wonder if it ends up inching further west than models have it....esp in response to that potent northern stream...just sort of thinking out load here. Kind of looks to me like a moderate band will be just off-shore of PWM and it will break coming inland on the north shore ...re-coagulating as a broken arc leaving southern RI.. Another band will also have a mysterious break that is exactly the width of Cape Cod, pounding S++ with thunder in CC Bay, that breaks again on the lower arm as it resurges in strength arcing Seaward. Can you imagine this winter doing anything else ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 That 850 closes off just S of us. Good luck out there Bob, looks good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 18z nam shifted the precip field west here, I was barely in the .25" range and now its Nw of me by 30 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Keep picking the right weekends to come home!! My boss for plowing is like a little kid waiting at the top of the stairs to come down Christmas Morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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