Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 No it sort of squashed it se. That one doesn't look hot. The weekend storm almost looks SWFE on the euro op, but without the arctic air. Behind that is another low that rots east of NC, but there is a signal in the Friday-Sunday tiemframe of something. I have a feeling we see that come back north and a bit stronger in future runs..There should be enough of a push of sw flow to bump that north and i's also overrunning a pretty cold dome..Won't surprise me in the least for us to grab a light event out of the early week one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 No it sort of squashed it se. That one doesn't look hot. The weekend storm almost looks SWFE on the euro op, but without the arctic air. Behind that is another low that rots east of NC, but there is a signal in the Friday-Sunday tiemframe of something. We can't even get a postive bust out of all this model discontinuity - to the point where it's creepy. jesus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Who made that map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 This winter has clearly gotten to you. Where's the positive Tip we're used to? At least save the negative posts until after SE MA and E MA enjoy their snows tomorrow. Please don't taint that. I;m sure I'm not the only one that's noticed this..but Tip seems to go against concensus...If everyone else has abandoned ship and given up on snow and the pattern..he tries to find ways to make it snow and make things look good..and the trends will be positive..but when everyone else is on board for a positive pattern and snow chances(like we have the next 7-10 days or so) he tends to look for negative things that can happen and frowns on snow/storm chances. Just an observation..and again other people have certainly noticed this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 3-6'' for me? I'd need like 25:1 ratios considering the QPF output here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 This winter has clearly gotten to you. Where's the positive Tip we're used to? At least save the negative posts until after SE MA and E MA enjoy their snows tomorrow. Please don't taint that. Haha , nah, I'm good. Just calling it the way it is. Assure you - nothing has "gotten" to anyone. well, I don't speak for everyone. Anyway, what I said is very reasonably true, the outcome of no event has persisted. It just is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Someone brought up the RUC, no idea how it'll perform this time we have almost no storms on which to base this year.... But at 18z the WV, RUC and 6h forecasts from the NAM/GFS didn't seem bad. RUC/WV are a little slower with the two main features up north than the GFS, pretty much dead on with the NAM as it turns out. Across the Carolinas, that first pulse doesn't seem to have been handled all that well, be interested to see how that influences things on this next suite where they hopefully get a better adjusted handle. This is going to be a pretty nasty vortmax that is already starting to wrap up..you can see the drying beginnng to occur. In 12 or 18 hours as it's coming off the Carolina coast it's going to be a nasty spin as it starts to get drawn north. I have a hard time believing that we won't see some pretty explosive deepending earlier than modeled. I guess it will come down to how much interference the outside s/ws play...the ones shooting out under the main SW that will run the Gulf Coast tonight..those get out and around and are starting to initiate convection already. Hoping they don't draw to much of the moisture out...could be a very explosive development later tonight and Saturday with this system. Just seems improbable that we don't see some very strong pressure falls with this not long after Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 probably for a different thread but i do feel like the pattern going for the next 10 days or so is about as favorable as we've seen (which isn't saying too much) this winter. might not amount to a whole lot but there are some signs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The good news is with each second of the day that ticks away we are getting closer and closer to May 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 One good sign. My right foot tendinitis is acting up. Typically a good signal 18-24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 probably for a different thread but i do feel like the pattern going for the next 10 days or so is about as favorable as we've seen (which isn't saying too much) this winter. might not amount to a whole lot but there are some signs. And I would violently agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Fitty now at BOS but td of 17 means it should have no trouble cooling when the sun don't shine.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I have a feeling we see that come back north and a bit stronger in future runs..There should be enough of a push of sw flow to bump that north and i's also overrunning a pretty cold dome..Won't surprise me in the least for us to grab a light event out of the early week one It could, just looks a little disorganized right now. In some shape or form, someone might get some -SN...probably moreso for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I;m sure I'm not the only one that's noticed this..but Tip seems to go against concensus...If everyone else has abandoned ship and given up on snow and the pattern..he tries to find ways to make it snow and make things look good..and the trends will be positive..but when everyone else is on board for a positive pattern and snow chances(like we have the next 7-10 days or so) he tends to look for negative things that can happen and frowns on snow/storm chances. Just an observation..and again other people have certainly noticed this Muah hahahhahahahaha Honestly, the consensus on here leaves something to be desired for me at times. The collective synoptic interpretation/understanding ... at times drives me to distraction. It almost more than seems that a collective understanding around here is more of a spontaneous emergent property - like "crowd physics" phenomenon where fads rise and fall and sweep like waves through a room. More so than veractious dictation over what is happening in the (verifications + modeling)/2 It's almost comical to me. I merely choose not to surf those waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Fitty now at BOS but td of 17 means it should have no trouble cooling when the sun don't shine.... Like we were saying yesterday, it has a Spring time appeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The good news is with each second of the day that ticks away we are getting closer and closer to May 1st. .Triple bunner for thou Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 fwiw...GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Pieces of the puzzle coming together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Fitty now at BOS but td of 17 means it should have no trouble cooling when the sun don't shine.... With clouds streaming in now..it'll have trouble dropping tonight..I'd guess many of the urban and coastal areas stay in the mid-30s tonight until the precip starts anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Surprised there's no advisories out for at least SE mass...they will get 3" minimum...but I guess no harm in waiting for some 18z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Muah hahahhahahahaha Honestly, the consensus on here leaves something to be desired for me at times. The collective synoptic interpretation/understanding ... at times drives me to distraction. It almost more than seems that a collective understanding around here is more of a spontaneous emergent property - like "crowd physics" phenomenon where fads rise and fall and sweep like waves through a room. More so than veractious dictation over what is happening in the (verifications + modeling)/2 It's almost comical to me. I merely choose not to surf those waves. i don't know...i feel like we've handled the pattern pretty well this winter. but that's just my opinion on the matter. we certainly aren't elbows deep in snowfall despite any global factors that may have suggested we should've been (though i'm not sure there are any) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Pieces of the puzzle coming together Yeah ...you look at that... and you look at the bands of light to moderate snow in PA ...southern lower Michigan and so forth, and see it all looped and how it is pivoting around a cyclonie axis that centered roughly on Ohio, and you wonder just how in the hell is the atmosphere going to pull off a near miss with all that now-cast observances out of that. Fascinating! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 With clouds streaming in now..it'll have trouble dropping tonight..I'd guess many of the urban and coastal areas stay in the mid-30s tonight until the precip starts anyway I think all areas will not drop easily. Many could probably start as a mix as they wetbulb there will to coolness. This is going to be one of those evenings, where it has the strange and spring like smell to it, I think. If you know what I mean. A smell that I do not like in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Yeah ...you look at that... and you look at the bands of light to moderate snow in PA ...southern lower Michigan and so forth, and see it all looped and how it is pivoting around a cyclonie axis that centered roughly on Ohio, and you wonder just how in the hell is the atmosphere going to pull off a near miss with all that now-cast observances out of that. Fascinating! Just another kick into our collective groinI have wondered for a little while how enegry is transferred from one parcel of the atmosphere to the other like that. Just a natural relay race and the snow is our baton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 So what's the deal yo? It gon sno!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I think all areas will not drop easily. Many could probably start as a mix as they wetbulb there will to coolness. This is going to be one of those evenings, where it has the strange and spring like smell to it, I think. If you know what I mean. A smell that I do not like in Feb. yep that weird kind of earthy warm smell. i know exactly what you mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 yep that weird kind of earthy warm smell. i know exactly what you mean. Yeah, I smelt that the other day. Hated it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Yeah ..sort of like a stale ,moist azz that hasn't been wiped well enough..noone wants that smell and certainly not in Feb That's like in the Fall when you have all those leaves rotting. Probably smells like that at LL's house all year round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I think all areas will not drop easily. Many could probably start as a mix as they wetbulb there will to coolness. This is going to be one of those evenings, where it has the strange and spring like smell to it, I think. If you know what I mean. A smell that I do not like in Feb. That's a common odor when theta-e air is returning after a dry spell, too. Spring is common for that aroma. Currently the DPs are well down across the area and the advection terms arealmost nill, so it will be interesting to see if that smell does materialize. I have sniffed that out on the 3rd evening of a May cool snap, where the moisture is increasing off over evapo-tran processing/soil moisture, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 Thats a no-no Kev. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.