CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 For the time being most globals(that show it) and meso models place the ivt in the nyc metro south region, pretty consistent right now, these have a tendency to move around, but for now they seem to target that area. Boundary layer will be tough to overcome for a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Looks good down this way, all I can ask for. Now just time to let it develop. Out to enjoy a spring like, windy day here on the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 For the time being most globals(that show it) and meso models place the ivt in the nyc metro south region, pretty consistent right now, these have a tendency to move around, but for now they seem to target that area. Those inv trough can be pesky to where they actually set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 looks like for extreme eastern mass and SE SNE this will be now cast .......to a greater degree than most i mean we have a few meso models showing .75 or more precip not to far at all from the coast....and 50 mile swing ...is all it takes or less for some areas Bring it...Wollaston Beach Whopper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 ggem has a nice storm late in its run...there is a decent signal for that time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 ggem has a nice storm late in its run...decent signal for that time period. Yeah all models have something, ptype TBD. Mid week storm may not be much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 doing some cleaning today...the sun is so nice ...gotta be about 50 in cambridge (by harvard sq) right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 one thing both the GFS and NAM have over SE areas / Cape is some good solid omega right into the heart of the DGZ. regardless, looks like it could be a 32/33F paste job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 one thing both the GFS and NAM have over SE areas / Cape is some good solid omega right into the heart of the DGZ. regardless, looks like it could be a 32/33F paste job. They really nail you guys good. Almost a mini Dec '04 look for a brief time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 What I like about this system is the timing. I like to sleep late Saturdays and I'm thinking if really good happens it's after 10AM imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I'm assuming from this setup that I'll be all rain. Maybe a brief change late. No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Yeah all models have something, ptype TBD. Mid week storm may not be much. Mid week looks like a lesser version of tomorrow..maybe 1-3 Tuesday night.and then a bomb next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Mid week looks like a lesser version of tomorrow..maybe 1-3 Tuesday night.and then a bomb next weekend Next weekend will probably feature some blocking....it really could be a good storm, if that goes underneath us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 It's going to be pretty interesting watching this develop even though I'm lucky to get an inch here. It seems that the offshore low wins, but if the models ever blow that then all of a sudden SNE gets quite a bit more than forecast. Interesting time will be Saturday morning as qpf blossoms in southern NY and SNE in response to the sharp northern stream trough/vort and then lets watch it all fall apart and consolidate in southeast Mass and offshore with the "out to sea" low. Models say its so ....but will be fun to watch radar trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I love how no one's talking about Jerry's elephant in the room.. it's 47 here, but that feels like the norm now. Can't imagine what its like on the cape. Enjoy the snow down there. Almost all snowpacks are gone here.. can't wait til they are. GFS is putrid for next week.. what's new? Toasty 38.9/21 here, too. I also wonder too-with the warm temps and lack of initial cold air-unless it's heavy precip, some are in trouble here. 45-47 here today--reminds me of a certain "heavy snow warning" bust a few January's ago.... This can't be a bust like that, since you'd need heavy snow in your forecast. That ain't happening, though thank God the CT DOT is on top of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I'm assuming from this setup that I'll be all rain. Maybe a brief change late. No? it's a close call out there, Blair. some products actually have the majority of the precip frozen even on the islands but honestly i haven't looked too close at ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 wow...euro is game on out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Euro bumped up QPF by a decent amount. Really gives the Cape some fun tomorrow aftn. 0.25" line is from Gay to Steve roughly. 0.5 line from just north of PYM to near Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Euro and GFS are almost identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Man 25 miles west and it's a good storm within 128. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Euro is definitely better vs 0Z. 0.25 line moves maybe 25 miles west and 0.5 line is maybe 30 miles SE of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 LOL, a mini Dec 04 for Phil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Euro and GFS are almost identical. yeah they really are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Great news out there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 yeah they really are. So it seems like we are pretty much locked. 1-3 for most with maybe 2-4 for BOS and a stripe of 4-6 perhaps near Bob and upper Cape? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 it's a close call out there, Blair. some products actually have the majority of the precip frozen even on the islands but honestly i haven't looked too close at ACK. Cool. Thanks. I'll keep everyone posted as it unfolds. I don't have scalloping so I'll be free to update. Cheers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 It's going to be pretty interesting watching this develop even though I'm lucky to get an inch here. It seems that the offshore low wins, but if the models ever blow that then all of a sudden SNE gets quite a bit more than forecast. Interesting time will be Saturday morning as qpf blossoms in southern NY and SNE in response to the sharp northern stream trough/vort and then lets watch it all fall apart and consolidate in southeast Mass and offshore with the "out to sea" low. Models say its so ....but will be fun to watch radar trends. I wonder how much of that "out to sea " low is convective feedback. I know the southern stream disturbance is trying to steal the energy, but I would not be surprised if the SL is further west than progged. It really is a nice setup and it is oh so close to something good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 While it doesn't have the preceding band as robust as the GFS, it's still around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 So it seems like we are pretty much locked. 1-3 for most with maybe 2-4 for BOS and a stripe of 4-6 perhaps near Bob and upper Cape? Futility fail. Now let's run for a record high snow 2/11-4/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 That's a ton of lift on the Cape, hopefully no sucker zones west of the main batch of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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