Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 yeah it just is what it is. as progged, there's just not a whole lot of forcing over central and western areas and the air mass is marginal. it's not like 1/21 when we had that frigid air mass that responded nicely to very modest WAA (away from the south coast) and squeezed out some "ok" snows. it's certainly possible that most are able to pick up a couple/several inches if things fall into place...that said, if i had to wager whether things are going to bust one way or the other, i'd be expecting a bust low vs high for a good chunk of real estate. My biggest fear at this point is a major screw zone on the west side of the "ccb" that is progged to kind of just miss both of us to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I see so many ranges of 2-5'' out there...that's such a high range. Almost hard to NOT be wrong with something like that. I'm going with .2 to .4 with lollies to 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Definitely off topic, but after an extremely trying 6 months, I've got some good news..I got my old job at the Bermuda Weather Service back...I'll be heading down there in March. you actually might get more snow there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I'm going with .2 to .4 with lollies to 1" Best forecast yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jt5019 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Just ran over to 7-11, town trucks plows on and ready to go, putting the brine down on the roadways, love the closing hours leading into a snow event, just getting the first cirrus showing up on the sw horizon. Just saw state dot trucks in Cromwell street sweeping the roads cleaning up any salt that was left on them,It didnt appear they were the least bit worried about snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 yeah it just is what it is. as progged, there's just not a whole lot of forcing over central and western areas and the air mass is marginal. it's not like 1/21 when we had that frigid air mass that responded nicely to very modest WAA (away from the south coast) and squeezed out some "ok" snows. it's certainly possible that most are able to pick up a couple/several inches if things fall into place...that said, if i had to wager whether things are going to bust one way or the other, i'd be expecting a bust low vs high for a good chunk of real estate. I went 2-3" for BOS with the mention of 4" as a possibility. Worried that the best rates will be just se, but if that backs up or develops a bit more...or if that preceding band sets up nearby, could see 4". I think Bobs area might do well all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I went 2-3" for BOS with the mention of 4" as a possibility. Worried that the best rates will be just se, but if that backs up or develops a bit more...or if that preceding band sets up nearby, could see 4". I think Bobs area might do well all things considered. same here. both the nam and gfs are bonafide snowstorms for SE areas but i have my scooter caution flags to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Looks like a 2-3" deal for SE ct at best. Better than nothing this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Honestly,Scooter..not at all. I guess I just see more positives than negatives with this. I don't see it being a miss..or just flurries and light snows..We're only off by a couple inches between our calls. This is going to have some surprises with it,,and I think the models(esp the meso models) are showing that fairly clearly. As usual there are going to be some lucky areas that get under some decent bands(wherever the norlun sets up) and some folks that might get screwed with an inch.. Again just MO and I know that's not worth much on here. Several days ago, this was progged as a miss, so we probably should be happy for something. Some snow is better than no snow, for sure. We'll have to watch that band out ahead of the main action, because that might a surprise inch or two before anything starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 same here. both the nam and gfs are bonafide snowstorms for SE areas but i have my scooter caution flags to consider. Rest of the northeast wasn't that big of a deal. Went 1-3" for NY, but they have some questions too. Doubt the 3" happens, especially JFK. LOL, this was actually the first storm threat since the October storm that I had to deal with, part of the reason I'm picky with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Just saw state dot trucks in Cromwell street sweeping the roads cleaning up any salt that was left on them,It didnt appear they were the least bit worried about snow what a waste--it's only Mid Feb and a rainstorm could wash it away at some point....nice use of taxpayer $$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I love how no one's talking about Jerry's elephant in the room.. it's 47 here, but that feels like the norm now. Can't imagine what its like on the cape. Enjoy the snow down there. Almost all snowpacks are gone here.. can't wait til they are. GFS is putrid for next week.. what's new? Myrtle beach and spring starting in 20 days! Viva la torch!!!!! Summer of sizzle!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I love how no one's talking about Jerry's elephant in the room.. it's 47 here, but that feels like the norm now. Can't imagine what its like on the cape. Enjoy the snow down there. Almost all snowpacks are gone here.. can't wait til they are. GFS is putrid for next week.. what's new? Myrtle beach and spring starting in 20 days! Viva la torch!!!!! Summer of sizzle!!!!! it's 47F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I love how no one's talking about Jerry's elephant in the room.. it's 47 here, but that feels like the norm now. Can't imagine what its like on the cape. Enjoy the snow down there. Almost all snowpacks are gone here.. can't wait til they are. GFS is putrid for next week.. what's new? Myrtle beach and spring starting in 20 days! Viva la torch!!!!! Summer of sizzle!!!!! BL temp issues tomm am? wouldn't shock me...esp for SE mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 BL temp issues tomm am? wouldn't shock me...esp for SE mass The mornings are have been trending colder each day in SE mass, at least IMBY. 20's and low 30's once you hit 9-10 is when the temp really jumps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 12z nmm is going to be a very nice hit for se ne and the cape, very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 the suny MM5 should be a good model to follow next 12-18 hours. I wonder if there is any hope for some LATENT HEAT suprises....mets blizz whatcha think Latent Heat causing N low pressure vortext to be come more dominant or increase moisture over area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 12z nmm is going to be a very nice hit for se ne and the cape, very nice. MM5, NMM and Nam are similiar. The ARW is awful for both of us. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F10%2F2012+12UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p36&pdesc=&model=HRW-ARW-EUS&area=EUS&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=036&areaDesc=Eastern+United+States&prevArea=EUS&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 MM5, NMM and Nam are similiar. The ARW is awful for both of us. http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M have to blend, nmm can be too bullish while the arw is too paltry, at least thats what I have found, but guidance certainly is looking very good for se ne, and where any ivt shows up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I am guessing with no mention of the Ukie that it probably did not look so good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabize Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I love how no one's talking about Jerry's elephant in the room.. it's 47 here, but that feels like the norm now. Can't imagine what its like on the cape. Enjoy the snow down there. Almost all snowpacks are gone here.. can't wait til they are. GFS is putrid for next week.. what's new? Myrtle beach and spring starting in 20 days! Viva la torch!!!!! Summer of sizzle!!!!! Time for you to take a beach vacation in Novaya Zemlya, mate.... I've heard that they have surf - first time in living memory............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 have to blend, nmm can be too bullish while the arw is too paltry, at least thats what I have found, but guidance certainly is looking very good for se ne, and where any ivt shows up. Solid snowstorm for the cape! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I am guessing with no mention of the Ukie that it probably did not look so good Seemed euro like based on what I saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I am guessing with no mention of the Ukie that it probably did not look so good it's fairly similar to the GFS qpf-wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I also wonder too-with the warm temps and lack of initial cold air-unless it's heavy precip, some are in trouble here. 45-47 here today--reminds me of a certain "heavy snow warning" bust a few January's ago.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 looks like for extreme eastern mass and SE SNE this will be now cast .......to a greater degree than most i mean we have a few meso models showing .75 or more precip not to far at all from the coast....and 50 mile swing ...is all it takes or less for some areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I also wonder too-with the warm temps and lack of initial cold air-unless it's heavy precip, some are in trouble here. 45-47 here today--reminds me of a certain "heavy snow warning" bust a few January's ago.... it's a legit concern if precip rates blow, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 For the time being most globals(that show it) and meso models place the ivt in the nyc metro south region, pretty consistent right now, these have a tendency to move around, but for now they seem to target that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 it's fairly similar to the GFS qpf-wise Thanks, I think you guys And SE areas will do ok in this setup, Other then DE Maine here, We are just a bit to far west for anything other then maybe an 1-2" but i'm fine with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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