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Feb 11/12 Storm Disco II


Baroclinic Zone

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honestly, i'd be somewhat surprised if there are widespread reports of >3". hopefully SE MA or the Cape can top those numbers (for my own personal satisfaction) but i'm not even too confident in that right now given some of the things that could go wrong.

I could see a narrow area in between Bob and the canal maybe doing it...maybe cstl pym county a little later as temp drops and some weak OE stuff tries to come in. Winds aloft briefly turn ne too.

I'm glad you agree. Kevin is hellbent on believing I'm trying to dumb it down, but as mets...we see some things that kind of make us pause. I'm not sure why it's so hurtful to talk about that. There are a few positives too, that we talked about.

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yeah i think 3-4" for your area is good...certainly the potential for a bit more if things break right. the way last night's euro continued to handled this whole thing kind of concerns me but given everything else available those numbers are fair.

Even though the last BOX map said 4-6 for RI/SE Mass the AFD around 10am makes it a more 2-4 event, and they left the door open for a sudden shift or some good banding in SE Mass.

But if you want to be a weenie Margusity is still calling for his 6-12 in S RI/ SE mass lol, throwing Sh_T at a wall to see if it sticks.

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Definitely off topic, but after an extremely trying 6 months, I've got some good news..I got my old job at the Bermuda Weather Service back...I'll be heading down there in March.

congrats....too bad you couldn't get there before the end of the month

you'd likely see more snow during what's left of the winter!

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I think 2-5" for SE MA is a safe range at this point..with jackpots to 6" possible. Nowcasting is going to be fun with this storm, given the fact that models haven't quite pinpointed the exact location/path of the low pressure. Will it be closer to the convection from the southern vortmax or will it tuck a bit northwestward?

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I could see a narrow area in between Bob and the canal maybe doing it...maybe cstl pym county a little later as temp drops and some weak OE stuff tries to come in. Winds aloft briefly turn ne too.

I'm glad you agree. Kevin is hellbent on believing I'm trying to dumb it down, but as mets...we see some things that kind of make us pause. I'm not sure why it's so hurtful to talk about that. There are a few positives too, that we talked about.

Honestly,Scooter..not at all. I guess I just see more positives than negatives with this. I don't see it being a miss..or just flurries and light snows..We're only off by a couple inches between our calls. This is going to have some surprises with it,,and I think the models(esp the meso models) are showing that fairly clearly. As usual there are going to be some lucky areas that get under some decent bands(wherever the norlun sets up) and some folks that might get screwed with an inch..

Again just MO and I know that's not worth much on here.

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congrats....too bad you couldn't get there before the end of the month

you'd likely see more snow during what's left of the winter!

yeah no point of sticking around here hoping for a good winter lol. We've gotten 25" or so BUF...woefully below normal.

Thanks, guys. It's not perfect...I'd rather get a NWS career job...but it's a hell of a lot better than living with my parents being a pharmacy tech.

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Just ran over to 7-11, town trucks plows on and ready to go, putting the brine down on the roadways, love the closing hours leading into a snow event, just getting the first cirrus showing up on the sw horizon.

they came by my street and dumped rock salt everywhere within the last hour, so glad they don't sand anymore-was always a mess to clean up each spring

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Just ran over to 7-11, town trucks plows on and ready to go, putting the brine down on the roadways, love the closing hours leading into a snow event, just getting the first cirrus showing up on the sw horizon.

they came by my street and dumped rock salt everywhere within the last hour, so glad they don't sand anymore-was always a mess to clean up each spring

LOL. Connecticut is incredible. All that prep for 2"?

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LOL. Connecticut is incredible. All that prep for 2"?

The dusting we got down here in CNJ the other day was a real mess in the morning. Amazing what some below freezing temps and a little bit of snow can do to the less travelled and untreated roads.

More likely their budget is almost unused for the winter.

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My boss called me this morning regarding tomorrow to let me know that the school I work at is the ONLY one that is on for the morning. I asked him how much snow does it take for them to cancel basketball and he said it all depends...he knows I'm into the weather and asked me what I thought so hopefully they aren't listening to the 5-10'' snowfall forecasts and the more conservative forecasts b/c I don't want to lose 9.5 hours of work.

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I could see a narrow area in between Bob and the canal maybe doing it...maybe cstl pym county a little later as temp drops and some weak OE stuff tries to come in. Winds aloft briefly turn ne too.

I'm glad you agree. Kevin is hellbent on believing I'm trying to dumb it down, but as mets...we see some things that kind of make us pause. I'm not sure why it's so hurtful to talk about that. There are a few positives too, that we talked about.

yeah it just is what it is.

as progged, there's just not a whole lot of forcing over central and western areas and the air mass is marginal. it's not like 1/21 when we had that frigid air mass that responded nicely to very modest WAA (away from the south coast) and squeezed out some "ok" snows.

it's certainly possible that most are able to pick up a couple/several inches if things fall into place...that said, if i had to wager whether things are going to bust one way or the other, i'd be expecting a bust low vs high for a good chunk of real estate.

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