NorEastermass128 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Let's hope the NAM isn't still running 12 hours behind consensus. Is it me or does the RGEM suck unless you're under the inverted trough? Kind of tough to get a decent snow with a low passing so far outside the BM Ehh...That would mean the GFS is way behind too. It's a 2-4" snowfall SE of HFD-ORH-LWN. Maybe a weenie 5-6" amount by Bob. If the EURO is right...just subtract an inch. 1-3" from HFD-ORH-LWN. Weenie 3-4" amount by Bob/you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 In my opinion there are going to be surprises and nuances with this tomorrow. there are going to be some areas(not forecasted) that are going to better than predicted. That norlun deal is for real...and is going to set up somewhere..there's also going to be some higher totals right on the westeren edge of the where the greatest forcing is...some things to keep in mind..This may not be the type of deal where you can just issue a widespread 2-4 inch forecast and be correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 In my opinion there are going to be surprises and nuances with this tomorrow. there are going to be some areas(not forecasted) that are going to better than predicted. That norlun deal is for real...and is going to set up somewhere..there's also going to be some higher totals right on the westeren edge of the where the greatest forcing is...some things to keep in mind..This may not be the type of deal where you can just issue a widespread 2-4 inch forecast and be correct I agree. I think I could get an inch as easily as 4-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Going to have to get heavier precip rates tomorrow, or it's a grass topper I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Going to have to get heavier precip rates tomorrow, or it's a grass topper I think. Man...that would be a real kick to the b*lls for plow operators. It snows and they still can't plow and make money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Going to have to get heavier precip rates tomorrow, or it's a grass topper I think. This is as big as a debbie downer job you've done on this tomorrow as Ryan has ever done. Hope you're wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 face value the 12z NAM is pretty good for SE areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 face value the 12z NAM is pretty good for SE areas actually that's an understatement...at face value it's a plastering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Any analysis on the 06z GEFS? They seemed pretty far NW of the OP with heaviest QPF. Red flag? Could the EURO be otl? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 This is as big as a debbie downer job you've done on this tomorrow as Ryan has ever done. Hope you're wrong. I don't mean for everyone, but we all mentioned that 2-3SM light snows probably won't amount to much. That's not a Debbie..that's the truth. I wasn't suggesting that you should expect that, but a rather mundane scenario outside of a narrow area getting advisory snows, is on my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 rgem is a very nice event for us, ivt plasters longisland back into nyc wit 10-15 mm of snow, 5-10 for sne south of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 rgem is a very nice event for us, ivt plasters longisland back into nyc wit 10-15 mm of snow, 5-10 for sne south of the pike. ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I don't mean for everyone, but we all mentioned that 2-3SM light snows probably won't amount to much. That's not a Debbie..that's the truth. I wasn't suggesting that you should expect that, but a rather mundane scenario outside of a narrow area getting advisory snows, is on my mind. Well again..I hope your're wrong..but to me it sure looks like at least everyone in SNE sees at the minimum 2 inches and some areas quite a bit more than that. i don't see this as light snow where noone accumulates except under heavier bursts. I'd be pretty shocked if the entire area isn't under a WWA with the 4pm package Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 ?? 2-4" south of the Pike isn't exhilarating to me. 12z GFS coming out. 06z GEFS were pretty juicy, so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 rgem is a very nice event for us, ivt plasters longisland back into nyc wit 10-15 mm of snow, 5-10 for sne south of the pike. I hate the metric system. It is robbing us of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 ?? millimeters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I hate the metric system. It is robbing us of snow So's the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Ahead of the low, there will be a light band of precip aided by some 850MB frontogenesis and WAA, ahead of the main show. You can see this on the GFS clearly. If that can get into areas like Kevn in the higher elevations, it might give an extra inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 So's the GFS. ya east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 ?? mm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 amazing...NAM in 24 hours went from being the warmest/least snowy solution out here to the coldest/snowiest. not the best of winters for the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Ahead of the low, there will be a light band of precip aided by some 850MB frontogenesis and WAA, ahead of the main show. You can see this on the GFS clearly. If that can get into areas like Kevn in the higher elevations, it might give an extra inch or so. That's the stuff that gets into CT 1-2:00am. I can see there being an inch OTG for my long 4:45 am run tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 So's the GFS. GC is out of the game this go around. Us easterners get an advisory level snow. Plymouth gets high-end advisory snows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 actually that's an understatement...at face value it's a plastering. We're seeing now the dampening of effects of the convection. 12z GFS totally dumped that spurious low. I guess the good news is this, I still think we may see some movement NW with the low. Models may still be developing it a bit too far out under the convection associated with the southern dual s/ws. GFS/NAM are good hits, RGEM is okay/good for us, pretty encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Well again..I hope your're wrong..but to me it sure looks like at least everyone in SNE sees at the minimum 2 inches and some areas quite a bit more than that. i don't see this as light snow where noone accumulates except under heavier bursts. I'd be pretty shocked if the entire area isn't under a WWA with the 4pm package Neither do I, but it's on my mind for some areas that may get screwed with any voids or mesoscale dryslots. I wouldn't be shocked if that happened, that's all I meant. On the other hand, there will be a few weenie bands that will probably help some areas out, like I alludded to in the previous post. If you're happy with 1-3, than you should be fine. Otherwise the 12z GFS looked ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Neither do I, but it's on my mind for some areas that may get screwed with any voids or mesoscale dryslots. I wouldn't be shocked if that happened, that's all I meant. On the other hand, there will be a few weenie bands that will probably help some areas out, like I alludded to in the previous post. If you're happy with 1-3, than you should be fine. Otherwise the 12z GFS looked ok. For my area I am fully expecting 2-5 inches to verify..and will be both disappointed and surprised if that is not met Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 For my area I am fully expecting 2-5 inches to verify..and will be both disappointed and surprised if that is not met That's fine, it's a range. I just don't see anything greater than 4-5 for you, but no sweat. Maybe that early morning band will surprise you...sometimes they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 NCEP croaked. Any word post 30h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Good God at the NAM...12z bufkit at BDL yesterday goes from 0.38'' of QPF to 0.08'' on today's run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 For my area I am fully expecting 2-5 inches to verify..and will be both disappointed and surprised if that is not met honestly, i'd be somewhat surprised if there are widespread reports of >3". hopefully SE MA or the Cape can top those numbers (for my own personal satisfaction) but i'm not even too confident in that right now given some of the things that could go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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