ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Euro coming in more amped...has 0.25" qpf from about HFD to ORH eastward. A pretty solid trend on all global guidance tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Euro coming in more amped...has 0.25" qpf from about HFD to ORH eastward. A pretty solid trend on all global guidance tonight. How's it looking for the MA? Everyone in our sector must have gone to bed... Really like the trends tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 How's it looking for the MA? Everyone in our sector must have gone to bed... Really like the trends tonight Not that great for the MA...maybe 0.05-0.10 qpf for DCA-BWI...and BL is pretty warm...but probably interior folks with a bit of elevation would see some accum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Euro coming in more amped...has 0.25" qpf from about HFD to ORH eastward. A pretty solid trend on all global guidance tonight. Will (not trying to get the weenies amped up) but just askin if this has much more potential from a 5h standpoint to be more than advisory level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Will (not trying to get the weenies amped up) but just askin if this has much more potential from a 5h standpoint to be more than advisory level Not a lot IMHO...I mean I guess it could amp up enough to give a 6" amount to someone, but it really seems a 2-5" event is probably the ceiling for this...we'd need to see the southern stream really trend a lot stronger for it to be bigger...or see an unusual deepening trend in the northern stream for only 48-60h out...I think 1-3" is a reasonable expectation...but there is some reason to be optimistic and hope for something a bit more than that as a solid advisory snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 significant improvement on euro (as will and others have said) verbatim: earlier timing of onset, looks like as early as noon, ~10-11hr event BL issues get much closer to boston however kbos futility record falls on this run with > .25" qpf, euro predicted snowfall totals 2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 This one def has potential...the longitude of SNE might help here...and with a moisture source to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 What are the ensembles showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 What are the ensembles showing? Euro ens mean doesn't look too bad...GEFS have about half (or slightly less) the members being kind of bullish and half being not much like the OP. The non-GFS globals though tonight have really hit the closer synoptic track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 06z NAM is a lot more impressive too...we might need to start watching this a little closer for an event that gives some areas 3"+...the trend has definitely been toward that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 06z NAM is a lot more impressive too...we might need to start watching this a little closer for an event that gives some areas 3"+...the trend has definitely been toward that. Upcoming interpretation by Rev: INCOMING BLIZZARD!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Of course it trended into a solid 1-3" because I didn't want it....I can assure you that the trend is done because this is precisely the outcome what I didn't want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 So state that you entirely do not want a warning-criteria event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 So state that you entirely do not want a warning-criteria event? I'd be fine with that, or nothing....what I would like to avoid is a scenario in which I am deprived of the futility record by a string of nuisance events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 To never achieve a snow depth of greater than 4", yet still come shy of that record would be the ultimate f**k, but oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 AMOUT..it's going to snow and snow hard and heavy this weekend. Euro looks good for a nice 3-6 er Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 6z gfs hardly has anything inland FWIW. 3-5" for the cape if they can avoid BL problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Euro coming in more amped...has 0.25" qpf from about HFD to ORH eastward. A pretty solid trend on all global guidance tonight. This one def has potential...the longitude of SNE might help here...and with a moisture source to our south. 06z NAM is a lot more impressive too...we might need to start watching this a little closer for an event that gives some areas 3"+...the trend has definitely been toward that. Hopefully everyone gets excited about this today. This one has trended exactly the direction mny of us thought it would. Let;s get some positivity in here today.Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Your consistency is to be admired Widespread 1-3" maybe someone pops a pants tent 4" Phil deserves it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Looks like a nice event for eastern areas ... GFS is Ameritrash on this one. Could use a sizeable jump NW for my 'hood, but I'll be happy for the long-suffering Cape and EMA folk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 6z gfs hardly has anything inland FWIW. 3-5" for the cape if they can avoid BL problems. good luck folks, but beware the BL issues all the models are showing all of us having yesterday was proof that if the models show problems with the BL, you will certainly have them 6Z NAM is real warm at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 good luck folks, but beware the BL issues all the models are showing all of us having yesterday was proof that if the models show problems with the BL, you will certainly have them 6Z NAM is real warm at the surface Welcome to life in Richmond Va boys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 sref probs for >1" increasing for some areas nicely. we'll see how it evolves over the next 24 hours. hopefully it gets its act together early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 06z GFS would be a solid advisory event out this way. 06z nam has a ton of precip, but intially some would be liquid out here before flipping to a heavy snow - not sure i buy that much qpf though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 good luck folks, but beware the BL issues all the models are showing all of us having yesterday was proof that if the models show problems with the BL, you will certainly have them 6Z NAM is real warm at the surface The NAM didn't look too bad to me. The hills would probably be near 32F and the CP cooling to a wet snow in that 33-35F area before the flash freeze. WBZs are fairly low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Euro definitely looks better as well. Hopefully the trends continue. Some better trends in he 8-15 day too for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Looks like a nice event for eastern areas ... GFS is Ameritrash on this one. Could use a sizeable jump NW for my 'hood, but I'll be happy for the long-suffering Cape and EMA folk. Euro threw .25" our way.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 The NAM didn't look too bad to me. The hills would probably be near 32F and the CP cooling to a wet snow in that 33-35F area before the flash freeze. WBZs are fairly low. I was looking at hrs 57, 60 & 63 the freezing line and +10C locations with respect to say Boston were very similar to what it had for us yesterday http://mag.ncep.noaa...R&prevImage=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Hopefully for Kevin's sake, this happens and he can get his much needed 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Euro threw .25" our way.. wow really? didn't expect that. If you get that then I probably get close to that and Eric should be giddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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