CT Rain Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Isn't that what the GFS has been showing? You keep saying ride the ECM and the GFS sucks, and then throw out numbers more akin to the GFS solution, lol. Come on Scott you should know this by now. Kevin always goes euro until something else shows more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Ok, chief. AIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The bottom line is that as with everything else this winter, I don't have a warm and fuzzy feeling about this, but I'll wait until the 12z runs come in. There are some positives with this. Potentially, this could be the biggest storm of winter for YBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The bottom line is that as with everything else this winter, I don't have a warm and fuzzy feeling about this, but I'll wait until the 12z runs come in. There are some positives with this. Be objective and do not let past history this winter sway your decision making process with a forecast You guys in BOS are looking pretty good for 3"+ IMO... its further west towards like 84/395/495 that's a big question mark. Is it a dusting to 2" or plowable (ie 3"+). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Sun Angle talk in feb??? Wow this winter has sucked. I don't like the euro being so meh. Nam has to be discounted because it's outside its 12 hour effective range. Gfs I think had some obvious feedback/heat issues at 0z. Ggem as Jerry said last night is not very good with coastals. Leaves the euro and uk which is what nceps diagnostic favored. .1 or .2 per 12 hour events are tough for snow lovers down this way with such warm air in advance. Hoping like so often happens we see some of the interference and contamination issues wain this run inside of 36....cutoff always seems to be the 42ish hour window where the NCEP models lose that erroneously signal.....but also crossing fingers that it works in our favor and we don't end up with a low out at 36/70 and 40/67 type of deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Potentially, this could be the biggest storm of winter for YBY Be objective and do not let past history this winter sway your decision making process with a forecast You guys in BOS are looking pretty good for 3"+ IMO... its further west towards like 84/395/495 that's a big question mark. Is it a dusting to 2" or plowable (ie 3"+). Logan's biggest is 2.9" but that is off. I had 3.9" and there is no way they were an inch off in that storm. Either way, 2-4 seems reasonable at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Come on Scott you should know this by now. Kevin always goes euro until something else shows more snow. lol, I just thought the ECM looked more like 1-2" away from the SE coastal areas, so wasn't sure where the 2-5" came from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Expectations should be pretty low, IMO. Low end advisory for some areas seems like a fair bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Logan's biggest is 2.9" but that is off. I had 3.9" and there is no way they were an inch off in that storm. Either way, 2-4 seems reasonable at this juncture. Yeah that seems fair... one thing that Messenger just brought up is how slow the models have the QPF accumulating. If you are looking at 0.25" but over a 12 hour period, with 0.3-0.4" over like 18 hours, it may be harder to really get it to build up on the ground as well as if it were just like 4 hours of ASOS ticking 0.1"/hr. May end up with lower than 10:1 ratios just due to warm(er) ground causing compaction from below. Probably one of those storms where there's like 2" on the grass and dirt, 1.5" on pavement, but 3-4" on cars and elevated deck railings, tables, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Logan's biggest is 2.9" but that is off. I had 3.9" and there is no way they were an inch off in that storm. Either way, 2-4 seems reasonable at this juncture. For the extreme areas of GC, I'm going with Heavy, heavy dusting to an inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Yeah that seems fair... one thing that Messenger just brought up is how slow the models have the QPF accumulating. If you are looking at 0.25" but over a 12 hour period, with 0.3-0.4" over like 18 hours, it may be harder to really get it to build up on the ground as well as if it were just like 4 hours of ASOS ticking 0.1"/hr. May end up with lower than 10:1 ratios just due to warm(er) ground causing compaction from below. Probably one of those storms where there's like 2" on the grass and dirt, 1.5" on pavement, but 3-4" on cars and elevated deck railings, tables, etc. Yeah could be. That's the range I have now for BOS, barring any major changes at 12z. May be only 2-3, but we'll see what the 12z runs do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Yeah it's always a rather lame argument but in early feb it's just stupid. If it comes down to 3SM -SN not sticking then the storm is a horrible bust and if really has nothing to do with the sun. Even in later March its not a good argument. Anyone remember the "hot skillet" storm of March 23-24, 2005? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Major Meh this morning in here. I still think 3-6 seems about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Looks like 2K will get a dusting...should be real good for skiing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Major Meh this morning in here. I still think 3-6 seems about right. Yeah a lot of people seemed to have jumped ship. I really don't think it looks all that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 For the extreme areas of GC, I'm going with Heavy, heavy dusting to an inch or so. I hear that there's 7 inches of cement still on the ground up your way. Have to go to Pittsfield today and will take a look on my way back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Yeah a lot of people seemed to have jumped ship. I really don't think it looks all that bad. I don't think there was ever a ship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I don't think there was ever a ship. 3-6" in this winter is the Titanic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Thoughts I just typed up on my blog... http://ryanhanrahan.wordpress.com/2012/02/10/light-saturday-snow/ In general I like 1-3 inches as a conservative estimate in CT (Ginx I think maybe 3 or 4 for you) but there are a couple things that could make this trend more impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Thoughts I just typed up on my blog... http://ryanhanrahan....-saturday-snow/ In general I like 1-3 inches as a conservative estimate in CT (Ginx I think maybe 3 or 4 for you) but there are a couple things that could make this trend more impressive. Sums it up nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I don't think there was ever a ship. LOl, true but there was a canoe. SREF, NAM, GFS,MM5, RGEM all print out about .5 for me, hopefully some inverted feature shows up or convergence where east meets North like Will said. Seems like the typical 3-6 before an Arctic quick blast. We have not talked about winds but man that is a helluva pressure rise gradient arctic style. You have pointed out several times next week needs to be watched. I agree we at least should start to leave the mundane behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 LOl, true but there was a canoe. SREF, NAM, GFS,MM5, RGEM all print out about .5 for me, hopefully some inverted feature shows up or convergence where east meets North like Will said. Seems like the typical 3-6 before an Arctic quick blast. We have not talked about winds but man that is a helluva pressure rise gradient arctic style. You have pointed out several times next week needs to be watched. I agree we at least should start to leave the mundane behind. Yeah I mentioned yesterday the NAM was showing an east meets north deal, but that was actually east of the Cape. It actually created tremendous frontogenesis, but then again...it was the NAM. I think Ryan and I are thinking the same things. Just nothing really that points to anything great right now, but I could see a few curve balls thrown at us. Hopefully the SREFs and NAM start to look better here, in about 30 min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Thoughts I just typed up on my blog... http://ryanhanrahan....-saturday-snow/ In general I like 1-3 inches as a conservative estimate in CT (Ginx I think maybe 3 or 4 for you) but there are a couple things that could make this trend more impressive. nice writeup! yea the SREFS look pretty good for me , Bob, Scooter. Ryan did you see the Bulletin 34 scans? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Verbatim Harvey had most of us in 2-5". You will ray Kerry Scott bob and me. You guys should take the battle to the banter thread or get together for a fight club or something. 2 pages of sun angles and hype talk as the most important run of our lives is processing is very very bad juju. Amen. A tighter low capture closer to coast is not impossible. Seems unlikely with the 0Z-6Z runs, but not impossible synoptically. Northern vm > Southern vm will make the difference, and add to that potent baroclinicity and we still have reason to hope for the upside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Totals for mass ri and ct 4-8 Ivt's, Norluns, robust baroclinic ribbon, higher than normal sst's, excellent RH fields and a very nice UAT swinging through New England will provide on and off snows for nearly 24 hrs. Should be some decent squalls later sat night into sunday morning with the arctic front as well. Should be a fantastic weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Srefs............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 12z model fun has started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Yeah they dont look good moved everything east by a bit Srefs............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Yeah they dont look good moved everything east by a bit Thats why i had no comment, I did not want to be the bearer of bad news.........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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