CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The wish casting has been out of control this winter. Nobody should have expected a major storm, this always has been and probably will be an advisory deal for some. Shame on you if you expect more. 5 days ago, this was just a fropa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Well I don't think we have to worry about this being too far east. As Will said even the Euro is good for a few inches. Snow starts in CT near midnite it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I really do. And, we use it (not out of neccessity for most of the house) as a primary fuel source. It's also good to fell trees before the sap starts running. My hope for mby is we have the situation we had way back when where the final 24 hours of models had us go quickly from snow to mix to rain where it becamse a bust even for PF, I think. Otherwise, a bit of mood snow here, but something major (this winter, that means the ground has snow on it) for you in the southern and eastern areas and then up to Maine. You'll get snow. There should be some snow on the wrn side and along and behind the cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Well I don't think we have to worry about this being too far east. As Will said even the Euro is good for a few inches. Snow starts in CT near midnite it looks like The euro is about 0.15" to 0.2" QPF for you. FYI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 It is kind of funny how the NAM is south of the PIke thing with a more inv looking trough. Would be a win for Joe to Ginx..probably Kevin too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The euro is about 0.15" to 0.2" QPF for you. FYI. It looked like it brought the 0.25 line to a BOS to PVD line south and east. Still an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 It looked like it brought the 0.25 line to a BOS to PVD line south and east. Still an event. Yeah it did, but if we are getting 2SM -SN the whole time, won't be much of an event. The Canadian is pretty bullish with 0.5" from BOS to parts of NE CT and points se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Two saturday Bruins games I've been to it snowed. 1/21 rangers and tomorrow. Next year I will get all saturday bruins games. Last game I came home sh1tfaced and got out my snowblower for 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 You'll get snow. There should be some snow on the wrn side and along and behind the cold front. Of that I have no doubt. But like Dave and I have bandied about, turn on the wipers and we're good to go. One up side is that I had almost gone to the car wash (don't faint, Kevin). But, if we can get an inch, perhaps that'll clear off the mud/salt that's accumulated since the October storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The weekend storm in 7-8 days is still up in the air. Could be rain or snow. Next week's storm may be OTS too. I'm not going to lie... the pattern looks ripe for storms but I'm worried about a series of cutters or very close calls even up here, just judging by how the long range models have looked in the 7-14 day period over the last several days worth of runs. But that's a whole other discussion... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The wish casting has been out of control this winter. Nobody should have expected a major storm, this always has been and probably will be an advisory deal for some. Shame on you if you expect more. 5 days ago, this was just a fropa. Only if you were using the GFS..Euro always had it as more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Random model but here's the BTV WRF through 6z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Anyone have 00z euro qpf for major stations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Only if you were using the GFS..Euro always had it as more Euro was a whiff 5 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Anyone have 00z euro qpf for major stations? STOP FOCUSING ON QPF #'s. I've never seen anything like it. Everyone has gotten so humg up on qpf and not looking at the big picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 If the OP GFS is suffering from convective issues - I think it is, the GEFS would be even more prone to that error. Convective feedback ftl on the 0z gfs. Looked very suspicious as the tight circular low didn't fit in the surrounding pressure pattern. Ncep models are so inconsistent. If this storm goes much further SE in subsequent runs there's a chance it'll be an inland runner via global circumnavigation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Euro was a whiff 5 days ago. I think it's a good thing you're getting away for a few days this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I think it's a good thing you're getting away for a few days this weekend I'm fine, but there is no reason to hype up something that should not be. You'll still probably get 1-3 at least anyways. Hopefully the 12z runs are a little more bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I think it's a good thing you're getting away for a few days this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I'm fine, but there is no reason to hype up something that should not be. You'll still probably get 1-3 at least anyways. Hopefully the 12z runs are a little more bullish. Who is hyping? I have 2-5 inches for most and 3-6 for RI and interior SE mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I think it's a good thing you're getting away for a few days this weekend Your best analysis this winter. -- As we approach the feedback contamination should be dampened out. The surface lows having poor definition and being seaward on the euro and later ncep and ukmet runs is concerning there's no doubt about that. The possibility that the euro is close to entirely right because the juicier models are having feedback or s/w interference issues is very real. We will know shortly but I'll say if we end up with a diffuse weak low that's hundreds of miles elongated passing well SE of the bm we are going to struggle with thinner clouds and warmer temps, slower accumulation rates and frustration. We will see in an hour or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Who is hyping? I have 2-5 inches for most and 3-6 for RI and interior SE mass Verbatim Harvey had most of us in 2-5". You will ray Kerry Scott bob and me. You guys should take the battle to the banter thread or get together for a fight club or something. 2 pages of sun angles and hype talk as the most important run of our lives is processing is very very bad juju. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Sun Angle talk in feb??? Wow this winter has sucked. I don't like the euro being so meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I still think eastern areas will have the best shot at some moderate snows out towards the cape and DE maine, The rest of us are going to need some help on the western side for something other then 1-3" possibly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Verbatim Harvey had most of us in 2-5". You will ray Kerry Scott bob and me. You guys should take the battle to the banter thread or get together for a fight club or something. 2 pages of sun angles and hype talk as the most important run of our lives is processing is very very bad juju. There has been plenty of that over the last few months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Sun Angle talk in feb??? Wow this winter has sucked. I don't like the euro being so meh. Apparently, we moved to Atlanta overnight. The sun angle means crap right now. If we have very light precip rates on Dec 22 with days preceded by temps near 50, it would be the same issue. The sun angle sure hurt you in the October storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Who is hyping? I have 2-5 inches for most and 3-6 for RI and interior SE mass Isn't that what the GFS has been showing? You keep saying ride the ECM and the GFS sucks, and then throw out numbers more akin to the GFS solution, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Apparently, we moved to Atlanta overnight. The sun angle means crap right now. If we have very light precip rates on Dec 22 with days preceded by temps near 50, it would be the same issue. The sun angle sure hurt you in the October storm. Yeah it's always a rather lame argument but in early feb it's just stupid. If it comes down to 3SM -SN not sticking then the storm is a horrible bust and if really has nothing to do with the sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The bottom line is that as with everything else this winter, I don't have a warm and fuzzy feeling about this, but I'll wait until the 12z runs come in. There are some positives with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Yeah it's always a rather lame argument but in early feb it's just stupid. If it comes down to 3SM -SN not sticking then the storm is a horrible bust and if really has nothing to do with the sun. Bingo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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