ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The trouble is: every once in a while a 1938 happens (that hurricane will do what they always do) or a January 2000 (this winter is horrible so it will miss) etc. when anecdotes and persistence fail. There are some meteorologists / forecasters who make rules up about certain setups but the real truth to it is that every event is different. Usually, these rules get derived from a past bad forecast or something that sticks with the forecaster and then that goes on to affect future forecasts. We are all guilty of doing it -- me included --- and it is not smart forecasting. Simply saying that something will or will not happen based solely on an anecdote will fail at some point. It goes back to the idea that "persistence" forecasting wins like 70% of the time...but when it loses, it gets completely blown into the stratosphere...so its a horrible way to forecast and why no meteorologist ever uses persistence to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The trouble is: every once in a while a 1938 happens (that hurricane will do what they always do) or a January 2000 (this winter is horrible so it will miss) etc. when anecdotes and persistence fail. There are some meteorologists / forecasters who make rules up about certain setups but the real truth to it is that every event is different. Usually, these rules get derived from a past bad forecast or something that sticks with the forecaster and then that goes on to affect future forecasts. We are all guilty of doing it -- me included --- and it is not smart forecasting. Simply saying that something will or will not happen based solely on an anecdote will fail at some point. You are right for the most part, but I think that you need to hedge a bit based upon your own anecdotal observations.......obviously the science is given more weight....not arguing otherwise. Anyway, I wasn't trying to attack you or Will and you both have forgotten more meteorology than I'll ever know, but I just felt compelled to defend that point. No offense intended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 It's okay. It's been rough for snow lovers. I am a good punching bag. I tend to stay away from the forum when things look bleak and come here when they don't because that's when I like participating on the forum. That makes me good bait. Nothing personal....just a good debate. Thanks for hearing a weenie out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Anyway, looks like 1-3" remains a good call in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Here is a recent example of one of my fails (autumn winter outlook): knowing the sun would tank mid-winter, I anticipated the changes to the NH and remembered what happened last winter. The fail was exactly that because I overlooked the most obvious flaw that the state of the annular modes in early winter was toast. The combination of that poor state and the tropical forcing was an ideal setup for the Alaskan Vortex. I was so blinded that I even mentioned the weird December with the warm northern Plains but thought it would be temporary. So while I sit back happy that the MJO development occurred mid-winter, the AO tanked and the other side of the NH turned into a winter nightmare...I am kicking myself for missing something so obvious that greatly affected America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 lots of nice juicy solutions on 0z gfs ens i'll take panel 2...3...4....5 ...6 ...etc etc HOPE euro ens are juicier w/ qpf even thou apparently everone inside 128 is toasted by BL warmth per snow accums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Here is a recent example of one of my fails (autumn winter outlook): knowing the sun would tank mid-winter, I anticipated the changes to the NH and remembered what happened last winter. The fail was exactly that because I overlooked the most obvious flaw that the state of the annular modes in early winter was toast. The combination of that poor state and the tropical forcing was an ideal setup for the Alaskan Vortex. I was so blinded that I even mentioned the weird December with the warm northern Plains but thought it would be temporary. So while I sit back happy that the MJO development occurred mid-winter, the AO tanked and the other side of the NH turned into a winter nightmare...I am kicking myself for missing something so obvious that greatly affected America. As long as you learned from it, it's not a total fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Don't ensembles kinda lose their value this close in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 As long as you learned from it, it's not a total fail. Certainly did. Can't wait for the next puzzle to screw up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Certainly did. Can't wait for the next puzzle to screw up. It's a frontier science.....no harm in screwing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The GEFS are likely too amped and far west..and also too wet as a result. I've seen them do this way too many times to believe it anymore. It may still be a possibility that the precipitation shield ends up better organized...but at this point I would not even come close to including the GEFS mean in my forecast. Speaking of which...I heard somewhere that they were planning to make upgrades to the GEFS sometime soon. They need it. ohh great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Yeah the Euro is still screwing us with that southern vort....not much precip here...maybe 0.15-.20 here and maybe 0.30-0.35 for SE areas. The GFS I think has a feedback issue, would bet that it loses definition on that low on the 6z. Looks like a QPF bomb/convective induced spurious low. It just doesn't fit even in the surrounding isobars, I've got to about 99.99% think it's erroneous. Everything else is kind of a mess. NCEP is going full throttle with the idea it's a mess until later in their dianostic and at this point I'd ride the Euro like there's no tommorrow with an eye to maybe something a bit wetter in later runs. NAM is so freaking useless they should just shut it off at this point. ...COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY DAY 2... PREFERENCE: ECMWF THE NAM AND GFS CONSOLIDATE THIS ENERGY INTO A MORE COMPACT CYCLONE BY THE MIDDLE OF DAY 2 THAN THE ECMWF...WITH THE GFS CLOSER TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THAN THE NAM. WITH ENERGY STREAMING TOGETHER FROM SO MANY DIFFERENT SOURCES...ANY ORGANIZED STORM IS MORE LIKELY TO TAKE LONGER TO COALESCE...AND DO SO FARTHER EAST. WILL RELY ON THE MORE STRUNG OUT ECMWF...AS SUPPORTED BY THE UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Don't ensembles kinda lose their value this close in? If the OP GFS is suffering from convective issues - I think it is, the GEFS would be even more prone to that error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I didn't think the Euro got as sharp with the 500 trough as the two US models. I looked at the 5H maps first and was underwhelmed. Euro did continue with the ongoing theme of digging the northern stream deeper...so obviously it needs to be watched still. It was actually weaker with the southern vortmax this run. But it just has trouble wrapping everything up in time for a large event. Still with that baroclinic zone in place and those height falls, I would remain ont he more optimistic side for one of the few times this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Expectations should be for nothing more than an advisory event at this point...if it trends deeper and more robust, great...but if you are expecting 5-10" from NW to SE, then you are setting yourself up for disappointment. I think the BOX forecast map looks decent, though I'd probably not be quite as widespread with the 4-6" amounts. Though I could see it verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I didn't think the Euro got as sharp with the 500 trough as the two US models. I looked at the 5H maps first and was underwhelmed. I was comparing the Euro to its 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 [/i] ohh great He was texting me that I was going to get "crushed" like 5 hours ago. When i questioned his rationale I got nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I didn't think the Euro got as sharp with the 500 trough as the two US models. I looked at the 5H maps first and was underwhelmed. The northern stream digging is being reduced and maybe even negated by the distructive interference going on with the southern stream energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I think Harv's map will be pretty good as far as the Will/Kev/Steve/Phil/Jerry/Ray corridor goes. He'd probably have trimmed the 5 to a 4 I'd bet if he had the euro though... Let's hope it comes together better from here on out, Euro holding serve is kind of comforting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 He was texting me that I was going to get "crushed" like 5 hours ago. When i questioned his rationale I got nothing. weenies come in an assortment of tag colors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I def think there might be an enhancement area where the more easterly winds meet the northerly winds...prob somewhere in interior SE MA. That is likely where the jackpot would be in this event unless we see something like a really sharp inverted trough somewhere else...but there's a good chance it could end up in SE MA anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Worst failure to read the box ever...took two DayQuil instead of nightquil. Generic brand box ftl. Wide awake. nam is useless but would be significant trend maybe if it amped up the nw appendage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 03z SREFs came in a bit more amped than the 21z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Anything on the ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I'm compelled to agree with messenger with the whole NAM/GFS convective feedback issues, or something larger is at hand. Based on radar simulation and the actual radar imagery currently, the NAM is much slower with the southern jet energy then the current radar imagery suggests. NAM has no precip over MS in the next 12 hours and has nothing developing until 12z this morning. PV is actually stronger than modeled at 00z and is slightly further northeast then modeled at initialization for 00z. While these differences at 500mb may be subtle in the longer range, in the short term they are rather large. Surface differences are even larger and more concerning. Radar depictions show it raining in AL and MS, while the NAM didn't have any precip into AL until 18 hours out as of the 6z run. This is erroneous, we need to see what happens throughout today, but water vapor imagery suggests we have a stronger system in the deep south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Y'all remember when you could have sworn this was a miss? The new model scores at day 5 are downright horrid outside of the ECMWF (the GFS / CMC are almost as bad as flipping a coin). Will it looks like our observations were correct. I think we all thought this time would be good for something, just like the next 8 days might feature 1 or 2 more storms, but the problem is some are just jaded by this winter. With the tropics helping out (FINALLY) this was a shot that we would have. Sometimes they are prolific and all the planets line up, sometimes they won't do much with other players in the field (like this time). I know you know this, but tropical forcing increases the chances, it doesn't guarantee anything which I think is important to note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 6z nam went east...6z gfs held serve from 00z (10-25 miles east maybe)...3z sref got juicier. 12z runs will be interesting...I like 2-4" for here now leaning towards 2", but there's room to trend that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Yeah GFS pretty much held serve. Euro is still meh for most of us with 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 GYX posting WSWatches for the mid-coast region. Here's their snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I like 2-5 for most of CT..up to ORH Far Eastern Ct thur much of interior RI up to west of BOS gets 3-6 spot 7 inch amts Bos and coastal SE areas 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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