ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I'd expect the Euro to look not too different from the Ukie and GGEM...I think part of the reason the GEFS are so amped is they don't really see the southern vortmax well which is a realistic issue and not just convective feedback...however, if the northern stream keeps trending stronger and more dominant, then it can overcome this so we still need to watch closely for larger solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I'd expect the Euro to look not too different from the Ukie and GGEM...I think part of the reason the GEFS are so amped is they don't really see the southern vortmax well which is a realistic issue and not just convective feedback...however, if the northern stream keeps trending stronger and more dominant, then it can overcome this so we still need to watch closely for larger solutions. Will, what do you make of tonighs nam run, obviously the norlun signature would move around, but do you think its a possiblity to have one especially if there is not a more consolidated low coming up the coast? The precip it spit out down here was kind of ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Y'all remember when you could have sworn this was a miss? The new model scores at day 5 are downright horrid outside of the ECMWF (the GFS / CMC are almost as bad as flipping a coin). Will it looks like our observations were correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Y'all remember when you could have sworn this was a miss? The new model scores at day 5 are downright horrid outside of the ECMWF (the GFS / CMC are almost as bad as flipping a coin). Will it looks like our observations were correct. The ECMWF ensembles hit this date for something a long time ago which is impressive....but not to let them get too high on their horse...they also failed miserably for the massive torch they were showing next week which now looks like average temps...maybe a bit above average but nothing like it showed. This period made sense for a threat like this with the amplitude of the PNA ridge...even if it only ends up an advisory event...its happening because of that ridge. People kind of gave up on it too quick I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The ECMWF ensembles hit this date for something a long time ago which is impressive....but not to let them get too high on their horse...they also failed miserably for the massive torch they were showing next week which now looks like average temps...maybe a bit above average but nothing like it showed. This period made sense for a threat like this with the amplitude of the PNA ridge...even if it only ends up an advisory event...its happening because of that ridge. People kind of gave up on it too quick I think. I agree and to some extent I can see why with the frustrating winter; however, when things present themselves that are actually happening (the MJO, the AAM switch, the declining sun, the tanking -AO and spiking PNA), you cannot simply write it off. New ECMWF is looking niiice...so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 are we still cursing the s. stream vort on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 are we still cursing the s. stream vort on the euro We may be ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Yeah the Euro is still screwing us with that southern vort....not much precip here...maybe 0.15-.20 here and maybe 0.30-0.35 for SE areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 wake up check euro ens.....hope for flutie bomb at 12z tommorrow ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Isallabaric / pressure gradient -- much -- Saturday night, jeez. Gonna get breezy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Y'all remember when you could have sworn this was a miss? The new model scores at day 5 are downright horrid outside of the ECMWF (the GFS / CMC are almost as bad as flipping a coin). Will it looks like our observations were correct. No one cares to see a ball spiked in the end zone for a 1-3" event for most areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 No one cares to see a ball spiked in the end zone for a 1-3" event for most areas. You are not the first person today to tell me about what the forum cares about. So allow me to address that: I don't care that you don't care. I find this type of thing fascinating, regardless of the snowfall amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Euro did continue with the ongoing theme of digging the northern stream deeper...so obviously it needs to be watched still. It was actually weaker with the southern vortmax this run. But it just has trouble wrapping everything up in time for a large event. Still with that baroclinic zone in place and those height falls, I would remain ont he more optimistic side for one of the few times this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 You are not the first person today to tell me about what the forum cares about. So allow me to address that: I don't care that you don't care. I find this type of thing fascinating, regardless of the snowfall amounts. Well good for you, but refrain from calling those posters unintelligent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Well good for you, but refrain from calling those posters unintelligent. He didn't call anyone unintelligent. You kind of fabricated that part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 He didn't call anyone unintelligent. You kind of fabricated that part. No way...you are wrong...he most certainly did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Well good for you, but refrain from calling those posters unintelligent. How exactly is it intelligent to say something will or won't happen because of your emotions and what you believe to be a force against snowfall in your backyard? I am not calling posters unintelligent for liking snow and being frustrated. I am calling it unintelligent to forecast like that because it isn't being objective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 How exactly is it intelligent to say something will or won't happen because of your emotions and what you believe to be a force against snowfall in your backyard? I am not calling posters unintelligent for liking snow and being frustrated. I am calling it unintelligent to forecast like that because it isn't being objective. I think both objective forecasting and anecdotal observations need to be incorporated and if you disagree, please refrain from insulting me because THAT is what is unintelligent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 No way...you are wrong...he most certainly did. Pointing out a flaw in someone's meteorological analysis isn't calling them unintelligent. Albert Einstein was intelligent but it doesn't mean he is good at meteorology. Hearing people say an event won't happen because the winter sucks is pretty crappy and rudimentary analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I think both objective forecasting and anecdotal observations need to be incorporated and if you disagree, please refrain from insluting me because THAT is what is unintelligent. Evidently you don't actually want to have a conversation; otherwise, you would quit with the victim nonsense and just straight up talk to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Pointing out a flaw in someone's meteorological analysis isn't calling them unintelligent. Albert Einstein was intelligent but it doesn't mean he is good at meteorology. Hearing people say an event won't happen because the winter sucks is pretty crappy and rudimentary analysis. Dude, you're speaking out of turn....he just essentially admitted to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Will, any idea with regards to euro qpf down here? Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I feel the love in the air, the lack of snow is really getting to you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Evidently you don't actually want to have a conversation; otherwise, you would quit with the victim nonsense and just straight up talk to me. Ok, chief. I haven't insulted anyone...feel free to engage me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Dude, you're speaking out of turn....he just essentially admitted to it. You're reaching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Dude, you're speaking out of turn....he just essentially admitted to it. Calling the analysis unintelligent in the context of meteorology is not the same as calling someone unintelligent. I can say you are acting like an idiot...but that wouldn't be the same as calling you an idiot...acting like one and being one are two different things. At any rate enough with the semantics...the general point we was making was that people gave up on an event too soon whether it happens or not...probably because of emotionally driven thought process rather than scientific ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Calling the analysis unintelligent in the context of meteorology is not the same as calling someone unintelligent. I can say you are acting like an idiot...but that wouldn't be the same as calling you an idiot...acting like one and being one are two different things. At any rate enough with the semantics...the general point we was making was that people gave up on an event too soon whether it happens or not...probably because of emotionally driven thought process rather than scientific ones. That is fair...I have admitted I do that......but I think it is fair to hedge small in terrible seasons, and vice versa in active ones....I have told you that I knowingly exaggerate that concept.\ But it's not entirely void of validity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 HM, I appreicate you hearing me out.....no hard feelings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 That is fair...I have admitted I do that......but I think it is fair to hedge small in terrible seasons, and vice versa in active ones....I have told you that I knowingly exaggerate that concept.\ But it's not entirely void of validity. The trouble is: every once in a while a 1938 happens (that hurricane will do what they always do) or a January 2000 (this winter is horrible so it will miss) etc. when anecdotes and persistence fail. There are some meteorologists / forecasters who make rules up about certain setups but the real truth to it is that every event is different. Usually, these rules get derived from a past bad forecast or something that sticks with the forecaster and then that goes on to affect future forecasts. We are all guilty of doing it -- me included --- and it is not smart forecasting. Simply saying that something will or will not happen based solely on an anecdote will fail at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 HM, I appreicate you hearing me out.....no hard feelings. It's okay. It's been rough for snow lovers. I am a good punching bag. I tend to stay away from the forum when things look bleak and come here when they don't because that's when I like participating on the forum. That makes me good bait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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