bboughton Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I should pay attention to units. 3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 5-10mm...2-4 " with 10 to 1 I think ratios are better than that, soundings are pretty darn cold, I would think its more like 3-6, especially away from the immediate coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I do caution about lower resolution models, because they may actually not give enough respect to the srn vortmax. They may be right, but something to keep in mind. However if they look like the op or even better, it may not matter too much. Just thinking out loud only thing that looks odd to me is the manner in which that low just pops right under the convection. If the Euro and others show it great, if not...I'd question that as possible a blip. GEFS should help in that regard. No model looks terrible, all models give us something, beats most of this winter. There's still time for things to break one way or the other, that little blip out of mexico is going to be one of the players and it's still in a data poor area. They're trucking across the Mexican state of Durango right now. If feedback is in play here one way or the other it has to do with those little spins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I think ratios are better than that, soundings are pretty darn cold, I would think its more like 3-6, especially away from the immediate coast With BL warmth I don't think we are going to see ratios any higher than 10:1 or so...except perhaps up across portions of interior MA (like ORH) where maybe they see 11:1 or 12:1 but that could be a stretch. The snowgrowth zone could also be a little bit higher than it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 That looks a lot like the 5-10" someone was mocking a minute ago in Ern CT -- or am I reading that wrong? Seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I think ratios are better than that, soundings are pretty darn cold, I would think its more like 3-6, especially away from the immediate coast I posted that earlier, and it's still snowing on the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 If the models can completely ditch the feedback. it could be a more explosive deepening close enough to SNE for a major snowstorm. It continues to look better with the nrn stream stuff. Should have a better result than what 18z showed..I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Harv changed totals a bit lower. 2-5" from Ray to Will to Kev to Steve to Me etc...Bob/Jerry...but he stressed he's expecting the lower end of that. 1-3" over by Phil and Pete. Todd G didn't change his map at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Read it wrong. My bad. Should pay attention to both units and measures. Seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I still think Bruce from WFSB is onto something though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 If the models can completely ditch the feedback. it could be a more explosive deepening close enough to SNE for a major snowstorm. Need to be careful though, feedback could work the other way and we may be seeing the GFS too far NW, who knows. It's very encouraging that the Euro is very similar to the 0z GFS, but the 0z GFS is west and a little stronger so there's more QPF further west. The alignment, movement etc is otherwise about as good a match as you'll get. GFS just amps up the western low more...will ahve to watch that and hope that becomes a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Read it wrong. My bad. Should pay attention to both units and measures. LOL no problem...was just being a jerk... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I still think Bruce from WFSB is onto something though. He is very good...would like to know his reasons for the thinking...would be interesting to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I still think Bruce from WFSB is onto something though. NBC 30 calling it a snowstorm, and if coast stays all snow then more than 2-5 inches, otherwise a general 2-5 away from the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Harv changed totals a bit lower. 2-5" from Ray to Will to Kev to Steve to Me etc...Bob/Jerry...but he stressed he's expecting the lower end of that. 1-3" over by Phil and Pete. Todd G didn't change his map at all. Prudent until further runs, lots of moving pieces. I am shooting for 3-6 and will go home happy. Hope to take some pics of some good drifts Sun afternoon as the snow dries out in my fav spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Great day considering where we were 24-36 hours ago, any snow is good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Prudent until further runs, lots of moving pieces. I am shooting for 3-6 and will go home happy. Hope to take some pics of some good drifts Sun afternoon as the snow dries out in my fav spot. Bos mets have been more cautious than usual. Good news, the GFS/UK agree very much at 500mb. Forget the NAM, it sucks. Might be useful as we get closer, it's trash right now about guaranteed. The interesting thing is the UK is further east a bit at the surface, more like the old Euro. If the Euro is more like the UKMET, IE not a tight little spin I think the GFS had some feedback on the QPF blob over the Carolinas. I'm about 95% sure that's the case right now. The GFS is the further NW low, I'm going to go out on a limb and say the Euro doesn't show that either...and is more elongated like the UK and other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tylertheweather Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 He is very good...would like to know his reasons for the thinking...would be interesting to hear. Basically: The digging upper level trough trying to go negative for Saturday, which may tend to draw the surface low closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Basically: The digging upper level trough trying to go negative for Saturday, which may tend to draw the surface low closer to the coast. That is something that will be very crucial in getting the low to draw closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Night kids happy eurine run . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Night kids happy eurine run . GGEM looks good too. Oddly the higher res models looked the worst...hopefully not a sign of some feedback but the GGEM develops along the lines of the UK, weaker than the GFS by 4 or 5 mb. But nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tylertheweather Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Also something crucial is how fast does the arctic cold front travel Friday Night. Does it get caught up in the Appalachian Mountains again, and then crawls towards the coast? We saw this happen back in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Also something crucial is how fast does the arctic cold front travel Friday Night. Does it get caught up in the Appalachian Mountains again, and then crawls towards the coast? We saw this happen back in December. A quicker sharpening/deepening of the trough would also allow for a slower eastward progression of the front as this would allow for the front to be a bit more parallel to the upper level flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 GEFS are really amped up...def more than the OP run. Its probably going to have some huge solutions from some members to get a mean looking like it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 GEFS are really amped up...def more than the OP run. Its probably going to have some huge solutions from some members to get a mean looking like it does. What time do the GEFS come out on this page? http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/gefsplots/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 .50 to. 75 on gefs for SE SNE ...kinda just like 18z and 12z NYC weenies talkin bout the 2000 "latent heat special" storm and the latent heat noted in the kocin report for the boxing day storm ...and it's trends 36 hrs out. any latent heat insights here..... also will this low just scoot east like modeled or may it move more NE. also danbury met says honk HONK. radar/satellite/WV imagery already looks impressive across the Lower Mississippi Valley. feelin' pretty good about this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 What time do the GEFS come out on this page? http://www.atmos.alb...ucts/gefsplots/ I don't know, but the mean is out on Raleighwx's site http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep12036.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep12048.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I don't know, but the mean is out on Raleighwx's site http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12036.gif http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12048.gif There is going to be a nice solid swatch of decent totals across parts of eastern MA probably extending into RI. Seems like there could be a nice band that sets up somewhere in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Gefs look beautiful, and so does this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 euro runnin soon ...i wonder what region will have most users on .....24 here now i mean just once euro should be first in trending better...it's bound to happen some time .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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