weathafella Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I find that RGEM is fairly worthless in about 2/3 of systems. Maybe this isn't one of the times but just saying.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 i don't care what anyone says at this point; this nam solution IS convective feedback incarnate! that vmax is almost damped out of existence but then mysteriously comes back from the dead to somehow dent the isopleths - right. i bet it has a tornado producing meso right there too. bahahaha 100% in agreement here is a good depiction of the SLP-fest produced by the southern stream, stochastic which of the SLPs takes off with feedback: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I find that RGEM is fairly worthless in about 2/3 of systems. Maybe this isn't one of the times but just saying.... How many times have you known the RGEM to be surpressed? It'd usually have a low over Albany at about this stage. The 0z NAM came towards the 18z GFS in a very noticeable way through the first 18-24 after which as it always does it reverts to it's old biases. That could spell bad news here in 20-30 minutes. I don't think we can wave our hands and say it's entirely feedback. There's going to be a s/w out there, jet etc. There's going to be a surface reflection. This isn't totally spurious. Maybe the degree it's developing it is, but to characterize every model as having feedback on the same feature at the same time would have to be a historic event. GFS will tell us which way it's going, like you Jerry I'd put more faith in it than the RGEM, but let's acknowledge that since 18z every model has shifted within itself SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 BTW, if you want to see what we mean with s/w's and how low pressure responds to it, you can see this for yourself on the PSU site. http://www.meteo.psu...0z/wrfloop.html You can see what half azz s/w's can do when you throw it over the gulf stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 RGEM is a disastah...Houston we have a problem...NAM could still be the west outlier, LOL Trough starts going neg off HAT but the ol' girl speeds E-NE? Lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 At this point I don't even care all too much as to where the surface low is going to track or how close it will track...just seems to me at this time that it will track far enough off the coast to where we don't see any real meaningful QPF that will generate widespread moderate totals...just a question of how much more moisture can get thrown back into the region...at least there is a decent slug of moisture that works northward though looking at the RH fields at H7. This is why I'd be sweating my fanny off calling for anything more than 5-6'' of snow. Kind of blows the BL will be so warm and we have to deal with ****ty ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 How many times have you known the RGEM to be surpressed? It'd usually have a low over Albany at about this stage. The 0z NAM came towards the 18z GFS in a very noticeable way through the first 18-24 after which as it always does it reverts to it's old biases. That could spell bad news here in 20-30 minutes. I don't think we can wave our hands and say it's entirely feedback. There's going to be a s/w out there, jet etc. There's going to be a surface reflection. This isn't totally spurious. Maybe the degree it's developing it is, but to characterize every model as having feedback on the same feature at the same time would have to be a historic event. GFS will tell us which way it's going, like you Jerry I'd put more faith in it than the RGEM, but let's acknowledge that since 18z every model has shifted within itself SE. Are you expecting 6-12?, seems pretty obvious this is not going to blow up and rake us. A 3-6 dealio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Trough starts going neg off HAT but the ol' girl speeds E-NE? Lolz If not much else changes we'd need the northern systerm to go negative/close for a time so the system could almost get pulled back. As it is the timing blows and we are seeing that ugly NW to SE orientation off the Carolinas. We don't want to see that on the 0z GFS...we want it back towars the more N/S extension of the lows one off/on the Carolinas one just off the GA/FL coast. If we see that more like southern coast of NC to northeast of the bahamas...doh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I can't believe a news station in CT through at 5-10" amounts. Completely irresponsible and ridiculous...the only thing to support it would be the 12z nam. I guarantee at school tomorrow someone will ask me if we are getting 10" of snow Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Are you expecting 6-12?, seems pretty obvious this is not going to blow up and rake us. A 3-6 dealio. I was expecting 3-6, if the 0z NAM/RGEM are an indication of how the other models will play out (based on their earlier alignments) I'll be expecting not much other than wet disappoinment. I don't believe we'd have that extension back like the NAM in that situation, I'm hoping the incoming models show pretty much what they did earlier and don't continue to nudge SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Remember when the EURO brought the PV into NY state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I can't believe a news station in CT through at 5-10" amounts. Completely irresponsible and ridiculous...the only thing to support it would be the 12z nam. I guarantee at school tomorrow someone will ask me if we are getting 10" of snow Saturday. "threw out" - sorry, I'm a stickler for grammar. That is crazy though! Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I really wish the trough would sharpen/deepen much more rapidly than what the NAM is showing as that would really help to not only develop the low faster but keep it closer to the coast...the NAM develops a pretty potent MLJ rounding the base of the trough but it just happens too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 How many times have you known the RGEM to be surpressed? It'd usually have a low over Albany at about this stage. The 0z NAM came towards the 18z GFS in a very noticeable way through the first 18-24 after which as it always does it reverts to it's old biases. That could spell bad news here in 20-30 minutes. I don't think we can wave our hands and say it's entirely feedback. There's going to be a s/w out there, jet etc. There's going to be a surface reflection. This isn't totally spurious. Maybe the degree it's developing it is, but to characterize every model as having feedback on the same feature at the same time would have to be a historic eveGFS will tell us which way it's going, like you Jerry I'd put more faith in it than the RGEM, but let's acknowledge that since 18z every model has shifted within itself SE. All The time Scott...all the time. It's not at all suppressed..ts plenty amped but too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 "threw out" - sorry, I'm a stickler for grammar. That is crazy though! Link? One CT news station had the western half of the state getting 2-5'' and the central/eastern half of the state in the 5-10'' range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 One CT news station had the western half of the state getting 2-5'' and the central/eastern half of the state in the 5-10'' range. Good thing there is no school, They would have to cancel classes based on that forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 One CT news station had the western half of the state getting 2-5'' and the central/eastern half of the state in the 5-10'' range. Which one? Looking for it online. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I was expecting 3-6, if the 0z NAM/RGEM are an indication of how the other models will play out (based on their earlier alignments) I'll be expecting not much other than wet disappoinment. I don't believe we'd have that extension back like the NAM in that situation, I'm hoping the incoming models show pretty much what they did earlier and don't continue to nudge SE. Scott the RGEM gives you 3-6 and it's still snowing at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Through 24, the GFS looks a little better than 18z with the s/w out in the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Scott the RGEM gives you 3-6 and it's still snowing at the end of the run. It's going to be warm in the BL Steve with a system that far out. GFS looks to have gone away from the 18z, slowing down the southern s/w a tad and holding back the little 12 unit vort that was kicking up trouble. At 24 or so it looks to be aligned fairly well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Which one? Looking for it online. Channel 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 out to 18, GFS has a similar trend with the southern stream s/w as the NAM (maybe not the same position, but the general trend of holding it back and strengthening it) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tylertheweather Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Is it just me or when looking at the 500mb solution of the 0z NAM and you compare it to 12z EURO, they look similar with the southern branch shortwave being kicked farther out to see. After learning in class this week about phasing and how the models love to over-predict it, not going to bite on it. Also I believe that the met who forecasted the 5-10 was going off the digging upper level trough, and that it will keep the low closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 "threw out" - sorry, I'm a stickler for grammar. That is crazy though! Link? LOL I was just typing fast. That's a 5th grade mistake. I can't seem to find it online but Wiz mentioned the map earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 GFS. Looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 looks to be hugging the coast so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 GFS. Looks better. Eh...what I don't like in terms of storm moisture is by 18/24 it's already amping up precip east of Florida and north of the bahamas. Lots of convection firing out there compared to the 18z and 12z at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 1028 high over the lakes. That's new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Eh...what I don't like in terms of storm moisture is by 18/24 it's already amping up precip east of Florida and north of the bahamas. Lots of convection firing out there compared to the 18z and 12z at the same time. I don't think it's possible to get models to ditch feedback with these dynamics and huge baroclinicity with the thermal gradient incoming. May be otl but jmho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Is it just me or when looking at the 500mb solution of the 0z NAM and you compare it to 12z EURO, they look similar with the southern branch shortwave being kicked farther out to see. After learning in class this week about phasing and how the models love to over-predict it, not going to bite on it. Also I believe that the met who forecasted the 5-10 was going off the digging upper level trough, and that it will keep the low closer to the coast. Hey Tyler! Glad you registered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.