Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 Here is the 21z RSM for comparison @48h. RSM on top NAM on bottom. Just slight differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Upon further look, it just seems like the NAM is liking the southern vortmax. What's scaring me until we see at least the 0z RGEM or GFS is that it came towards the 18z RGEM/GFS and maybe went even further aloft. I hope it's not going to end up being the west outlier this run.... Problem isn't just the s/w that scrapes along the upper Gulf Coast, we've got another weak one we'll see emerge off the Mexican coast (suspect we'll be able to see it departing near South Padre about noonish) that shoots up ahead of the other southern lobe and sharpens as it starts to get wrapped around/as everything goes more neutral. It "could" be feedback that's driving this intensification, if it's not....I really hate relying on inverted troughs but at least in this scenario it seems very plausible with the upper setup. Bottom line I think the NAM is still crap, hard to take a model verbatim that has shifted 400-600 miles in one major run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Upper levels more impressive than ever on the new NAM. But it's schizophrenic at the surface...one low trying to form closer in to the best vorticity and thermal boundary...but yields to the way offshore low after a struggle. I'm still not quite understanding why they want to jump the low way out like that. Because a s/w acting on bathwater by the gulf stream can initiate cyclogenesis. It only takes just a little evacuation of the upper levels, and you'll spin up a low. The question is whether or not the NAM or other models are taking that, and running with it a little too much. Models will sometimes also enhance the s/w through convective processes and that may also cause spurious or stronger lows to happen when they probably should not be. Now remember, these are actual physical processes so they are possible to a point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I choose to focus on the improved upper levels and northern sw trending stronger. Those seem to be the most important things from the run in the big picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The NAM was close to something big there at 36-42 hours...man, it really likes that northern stream feature. It's amplified it each and every run over the last two days. Now the base of the trough and vorticity is almost touching the MS/AL border. For comparison the 12z run was about 150-200 miles farther north at that same valid time. We're kind of sitting on a ledge here...where either that N stream will continue to trend and we'll see something dramatic, or we'll deal with this disorganization shown on the NAM and globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Upper levels more impressive than ever on the new NAM. But it's schizophrenic at the surface...one low trying to form closer in to the best vorticity and thermal boundary...but yields to the way offshore low after a struggle. I'm still not quite understanding why they want to jump the low way out like that. i don't think the far se development is overly spurious. it's in response to both the pva but also a very fast upper level jet emerging off the SE US coast which helps fire off all that convection. so once it starts to go to town then gets the added boost from the northern stream it's really igniting strong surface development offshore. so we are left with a battle of that offshore development and the northern stream trying to act upon the baroclinic zone. so we get this weird competing low center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 i don't think the far se development is overly spurious. it's in response to both the pva but also a very fast upper level jet emerging off the SE US coast which helps fire off all that convection. so once it starts to go to town then gets the added boost from the northern stream it's really igniting strong surface development offshore. so we are left with a battle of that offshore development and the northern stream trying to act upon the baroclinic zone. so we get this weird competing low center. 100% agree. Zero doubt in my mind we see pretty explosive precip development off the coast of Florida/GA/SC and no doubt a low will form under it. I'm not sure how much the strength of the northern system will matter aside of maybe the inverted trough type deal. We'll need some timing changes on other models to give the opportunity to have more of this moisture come north. Right now we've got the problem of there being more of a SE to NW orientation of these features and that blows...we need them all to get into better phase allowing legitimate moisture to be transmitted further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 i don't think the far se development is overly spurious. it's in response to both the pva but also a very fast upper level jet emerging off the SE US coast which helps fire off all that convection. so once it starts to go to town then gets the added boost from the northern stream it's really igniting strong surface development offshore. so we are left with a battle of that offshore development and the northern stream trying to act upon the baroclinic zone. so we get this weird competing low center. Yeah the processes are real, just whether or not it has a handle on all this is probably going to cause the nam to struggle......heck all models will probably do the same. The southern vort is real so we'll have to deal, we just have hope low pressure can have a better response to the nrn stream energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 just looking at 0z nam... (family visiting, going to Loon tomorrow) waste of a run, glad i wasn't on the edge of my seat frame by frame the 500mb northern vm is so much stronger than 12/18z, i don't buy the lack of a slp developing closer to coast, even with multiple disorganized pieces of energy from the southern stream... maybe feedback issues with the multiple pieces of energy far east, but not sure 6z will be different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I bet the GFS/Euro make a lot of us happy tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Looks like a stormy day coming up here on sunday. I'll wager on that. The rain/snow line and any accumulations can wait until tomorrow. Regardless atleast it isn't boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 NAM came back to earth. When I want a snapshot, I look at FOUS. Today at 9:45 am I was wowed. Tonight I'm saying....respectable light to moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Yeah the processes are real, just whether or not it has a handle on all this is probably going to cause the nam to struggle......heck all models will probably do the same. The southern vort is real so we'll have to deal, we just have hope low pressure can have a better response to the nrn stream energy. yeah the NAM itself i'm pretty much ignoring until later tomorrow. it'll bounce all over the place for the next few runs i'm sure. with all these pockets of energy emerging off the coast it'll try to turn every little feature into a new surface low....so the qpf fields will be weird etc. i don't know that the northern-most low will ever really be dominant but doesn't mean there can't be some good precip with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 just looking at 0z nam... (family visiting, going to Loon tomorrow) waste of a run, glad i wasn't on the edge of my seat frame by frame the 500mb northern vm is so much stronger than 12/18z, i don't buy the lack of a slp developing closer to coast, even with multiple disorganized pieces of energy from the southern stream... maybe feedback issues with the multiple pieces of energy far east, but not sure 6z will be different Yeah, Some of us mentioned it earlier, I just don't buy it with the northern stream looking that good, It was much stronger and SW, This surface low should of been tugged NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 yeah the NAM itself i'm pretty much ignoring until later tomorrow. it'll bounce all over the place for the next few runs i'm sure. with all these pockets of energy emerging off the coast it'll try to turn every little feature into a new surface low....so the qpf fields will be weird etc. i don't know that the northern-most low will ever really be dominant but doesn't mean there can't be some good precip with it. NAMs useless lately at this range. Just hoping it's not the western outlier at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Wtf? Nam has a 6 on the BOS snow number! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Im thinking the same thing to be honest the nam should have been northwest of 12z nad 18z but who knows I bet the GFS/Euro make a lot of us happy tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 yeah the NAM itself i'm pretty much ignoring until later tomorrow. it'll bounce all over the place for the next few runs i'm sure. with all these pockets of energy emerging off the coast it'll try to turn every little feature into a new surface low....so the qpf fields will be weird etc. i don't know that the northern-most low will ever really be dominant but doesn't mean there can't be some good precip with it. Not an unfamiliar evolution pre Arctic invasion. Usually yields a 3-6 type event with some lucky son of a b itch lollying to 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Im thinking the same thing to be honest the nam should have been northwest of 12z nad 18z but who knows I just don't see how though. I think the NAM is probably out to lunch, hoping to see at least a more respectable extension to the NW, but a stronger northern system will do nothing to stop the initial impulse from moving off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 yeah the NAM itself i'm pretty much ignoring until later tomorrow. it'll bounce all over the place for the next few runs i'm sure. with all these pockets of energy emerging off the coast it'll try to turn every little feature into a new surface low....so the qpf fields will be weird etc. i don't know that the northern-most low will ever really be dominant but doesn't mean there can't be some good precip with it. Boy does it become a beast to our northeast though. I think once the smoke clears with this run, I did like how the s/w looked as it moved into the Midwest. As long as that continues to look good we'll have the chance at more widespread stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Well at least the NAM came down to reality as far as QPF is concerned...pretty interesting to see the interved trough show up though but the NAM does have a decent area of stronger low-level lift moving through southern CT...GFS/Euro have it as well but more towards eastern sections as they don't deepen/develop the low as quickly as the NAM does. I could certainly see a narrow swatch of perhaps 5-7'' of snow somewhere but the question becomes where does that swatch occur? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Wtf? Nam has a 6 on the BOS snow number! Sure look at the sim radar, it's convective, not surprising either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I choose to focus on the improved upper levels and northern sw trending stronger. Those seem to be the most important things from the run in the big picture. agreed... and a continuation of trends seen 12z --> 18z we've seen a stronger northern vm with every run that's a real trend, and not subject to stochastic changes that get over-intensified with feedback i'm not discouraged, and in fact expecting gfs/euro to look better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 SW CT wins 6-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Nice inverted trough on the NAM...I'm sure at 06z it will show something completely different. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 i don't care what anyone says at this point; this nam solution IS convective feedback incarnate! that vmax is almost damped out of existence but then mysteriously comes back from the dead to somehow dent the isopleths - right. i bet it has a tornado producing meso right there too. bahahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 00z RGEM at 36 has a 1008 low offshore of HSE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Jan 15, 2008? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 00z gfs showed be telling, 6z gave me flurries, 12z gave me 4", 18z gave me like 1.5" verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 RGEM is a disastah...Houston we have a problem...NAM could still be the west outlier, LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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