CT Rain Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 In my phone but nam looks airtle bizarre lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 LOL@ analysis...mets analyzing things completely different than everyone else This is the furthest east run of the NAM yet with the surface low, it came to all the other guidance, it's earlier solutions were crap. The surface low this run I don't think is even close to the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 The NAM loves to go nuts on stupid things like spurious lows over the gulf stream, etc. Not that it's spurious, but I find it can look weird due to it's mesoscale nature. I like to look at the 500mb charts as a better gauge as to how the low may look. That's usually a better way to look at it, and is more removed from these stupid lows when a storm is first forming. I see nothing wrong with what the 00z NAM is showing me tonight. 700mb/850mb levels look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 nam just sort of seems to be slowly catching up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 In my phone but nam looks airtle bizarre lol It is, what else is new..lol. I thought it would look much better, given the 500mb pattern is better than 18z imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Ct/NYC special?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Looks pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 SW CT winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 SW CT winter. Inverted trough FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Well, I think this takes some of the more intense solutions off the table for now. Looking more likely that we get a modest event (2-4"/3-5", spot 6") for SE portions of the region. Less NW. Much more than was modeled a few days ago, so we can be thankful for that. Still, the intense outputs from this afternoon were fun to see, even if they were out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Litchfield ftw? Srefs favired more towards Bob though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 LOL, I would think this 500mb depiction would give the 18z surface look...not the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 In my phone but nam looks airtle bizarre lol As another met commented today the NAM is attrocious this winter outside of 12-24 hours. If what we saw in terms of shifts here are real, and the NAM is still catching up to the other models and the GFS/Euro nudges the other way it's going to be a tight squeeze. This surface low is WAY OTS now, heck it's moved probably 500+ miles SSE in 12 HOURS! So...let's hope it's not the west friggin' outlier now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 Well it's a little more widespread, but no where near the intensity of the 12z and 18z runs. Probably a little more realistic. I think it's still putting a little too much emphasis on the southern piece of energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Look how sharp the trough gets at 48hrs! Too bad the surface low is out east already.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Well, I think this takes some of the more intense solutions off the table for now. Looking more likely that we get a modest event (2-4"/3-5", spot 6") for SE portions of the region. Less NW. Much more than was modeled a few days ago, so we can be thankful for that. Still, the intense outputs from this afternoon were fun to see, even if they were out to lunch. I missed out on all the fun model outputs it seems. Ah well. We will take what we can get. 1",3" it's all good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 the setup would suggest LP position closer to the coast than what is depicted on the 00z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 500mb looks much better. I wonder if convective feedback is an issue here Guess we have to wait an hour to see the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I think it's still putting a little too much emphasis on the southern piece of energy. It just seems a little weird looking on a few levels. I suppose some sort of inv trough deal is not totally out of the question, given the 500mb s/w trying to pull the low back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Looks pretty good Would look much better without the best bar. zone and surface low developing under the initial spin WAY east. It's just the NAM and if you overlay the 12z with the 0z it'll make you shudder and realize.....just wait for the GFS/RGEM/EURO because the NAM is the terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Nice inverted trough on the NAM...I'm sure at 06z it will show something completely different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Upon further look, it just seems like the NAM is liking the southern vortmax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Nice inverted trough on the NAM...I'm sure at 06z it will show something completely different. Probably will give me 11" again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 This will certainly change, almost an ivt or norlun feature this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 the setup would suggest LP position closer to the coast than what is depicted on the 00z nam Yeah, All indications are that it would be, You can see the isobars bowing back to the NW, I don't really buy this solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 Lol, still manages to pull out QPF like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 ill take the nam qpf and lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Well, I think this takes some of the more intense solutions off the table for now. Looking more likely that we get a modest event (2-4"/3-5", spot 6") for SE portions of the region. Less NW. Much more than was modeled a few days ago, so we can be thankful for that. Still, the intense outputs from this afternoon were fun to see, even if they were out to lunch. Probably a good idea to wait for the full 0z suite before declaring that the intense solutions are off the table just fwiw. Agree with the mets that this looks better in the upper levels, may mean that there is some disorganization getting things going initially like the NAM showed (could be right since there are stream interactions involved and the gulf stream+convection) in this run but I don't think this particular run takes anything off the table at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 snows for over 24 hrs.. best believe most folks here would grab this solution in a second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Upper levels more impressive than ever on the new NAM. But it's schizophrenic at the surface...one low trying to form closer in to the best vorticity and thermal boundary...but yields to the way offshore low after a struggle. I'm still not quite understanding why they want to jump the low way out like that. LOL, I would think this 500mb depiction would give the 18z surface look...not the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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