Boston-winter08 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 wow, nam is close to a bigger hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Little stronger vort east of hatteras this run on the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 00z nam is so close to an actual snowstorm. lol...still gives us some snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Verbatim its like 1-2" for the cape and a coating inland...worse the 18z...but its so close to something better. Probably not going to happen though. It's a huge step in the right direction if you compare 18z to 00z....but it might be too little too late being 66-72hr out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Cant get the trough to dig far enough SE to send the low up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Gotta love how we surpress everything when it's not 50-55 degrees out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Rare below zero wx with no snow on the ground. It will be a novelty anyway. Gotta love how we surpress everything when it's not 50-55 degrees out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 While most of SNE is at 5-15% chance of 1" snow it looks like Ray gets his wish of being in the "screw zone" for this "event" Probably just an error, but is there any significance to those probs for 4"+ on the srefs? If only they weren't an error...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tylertheweather Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Probably just an error, but is there any significance to those probs for 4"+ on the srefs? If only they weren't an error...lol. This is a SREF Error that always seems to appear on multiple probability maps from the EWALL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 killington/pico will get blitzed with upslope saturday..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Better with the s/w energy on the GFS through hr 60 for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 getting the 12'th storm ....to be a hit this year and at this time seems = to beating the yanks down 3-love Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 LOL, actually give the Cape a nice little event. Low pressure develops offshore, but a stronger low and a little closer to the coast allows for an enhanced area on the nw side of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 That's close for a real nice event for the canal east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Sharper and more concise with the s/w energy coming south from Canada, and it's also in better alignment with the PV, in terms of the trough axis, and not as displaced. It also has that little piece of srn s/w energy too. Looks like the euro from last night, almost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Nam was close to something decent. Maybe its too late, but nice little trend at 00z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It actually clips the Cape with the CCB. Probably a 34F mash potato to wind whipped snow at the tail end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 That s/w energy being more concentrated and further south was something I wanted to see. If nothing else, it could help with a band of snow behind the front moving south. Otherwise, you're at the mercy of snow showers or squalls. Hopefully the euro is better looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I think most places will see measurable snow out of this...it might not look the prettiest, but there is a lot of moisture...the last windex potential we had there were issues in the low levels with dry air...not the case this time as currently modeled. So even some modest synoptic lift should squeeze out some snow. Hopefully we trend the actual coastal system a little closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I think most places will see measurable snow out of this...it might not look the prettiest, but there is a lot of moisture...the last windex potential we had there were issues in the low levels with dry air...not the case this time as currently modeled. So even some modest synoptic lift should squeeze out some snow. Hopefully we trend the actual coastal system a little closer. It's definitely going to have the low level moisture with the airmass rather mild as this whole thing comes in. I wonder though if we lose the WINDEX potential as the low develops. The front slows down and then just gets incorporated into the low. Instead, you have the band of post frontal lighter snows from frontogenesis hanging around, aside from whatever develops to our south..if it develops. Maybe we should just root for this to come a little closer. Either way seems like areas will at least see some light snows, aside from whatever happens with the low. I think having something like what the GFS and euro show is a little better for more widespread stuff, even if the heaviest stuff misses offshore. Better shortwave allows for more widespread lighter snows instead of hoping for an inv trough or snow squall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It's definitely going to have the low level moisture with the airmass rather mild as this whole thing comes in. I wonder though if we lose the WINDEX potential as the low develops. The front slows down and then just gets incorporated into the low. Instead, you have the band of post frontal lighter snows from frontogenesis hanging around, aside from whatever develops to our south..if it develops. Maybe we should just root for this to come a little closer. Either way seems like areas will at least see some light snows, aside from whatever happens with the low. I think having something like what the GFS and euro show is a little better for more widespread stuff, even if the heaviest stuff misses offshore. Better shortwave allows for more widespread lighter snows instead of hoping for an inv trough or snow squall. Yeah I don't think its going to be very WINDEXy (I'm making that word up) even though I referenced the last one...but there is a lot of moisture and some instability around so even some weak ML fronto would probably produce a band of steady light snow on the back side of the front and we will probably see some disorganized snow shower activity ahead of the front too even if the low is too far east...I guess we'll see as it gets closer. GFS looks very WINDEXy for Sunday though with the arctic front. If that southern energy keeps trending a little more robust and the northern stream continues to dig, then we could still pull off an advisory event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 00z Ukie is even closer...pretty decent precip over SE area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Yeah I don't think its going to be very WINDEXy (I'm making that word up) even though I referenced the last one...but there is a lot of moisture and some instability around so even some weak ML fronto would probably produce a band of steady light snow on the back side of the front and we will probably see some disorganized snow shower activity ahead of the front too even if the low is too far east...I guess we'll see as it gets closer. GFS looks very WINDEXy for Sunday though with the arctic front. If that southern energy keeps trending a little more robust and the northern stream continues to dig, then we could still pull off an advisory event. Yeah I kind of had the vision in my head as to what may happen, earlier today..or at least what I hoped would happen. Obviously, having a low closer would be the best solution. The arctic front does have a WINDEX look to it for sure. I actually like those fronts that move more north to south better. Sometimes you have better convergence and a bit of a lake connection with moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Canadian is much improved as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Canadian is much improved as well. Yeah its similar to the ukie...the panel I showed on the Ukie doesn't even show all the precip, it only shows 6 hour qpf from 66-72 hours. There is definitely still enough time to trend this back W/NW enough to get advisory snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Yeah its similar to the ukie...the panel I showed on the Ukie doesn't even show all the precip, it only shows 6 hour qpf from 66-72 hours. There is definitely still enough time to trend this back W/NW enough to get advisory snows. Hopefully, because it would be a nice trend in the + direction for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Yeah its similar to the ukie...the panel I showed on the Ukie doesn't even show all the precip, it only shows 6 hour qpf from 66-72 hours. There is definitely still enough time to trend this back W/NW enough to get advisory snows. Pretty good turn of events here at 00z for you guys down there. I'm getting the feeling that this may turn out to be something decent for someone in New England... southern/eastern areas from CT (that's for you Blizz) up through downeast ME. In this winter even 2-4" is a decent synoptic event, if it were to continue that trend. Covers the grass, snows decently for a bit... good stuff this year. Hopefully the EURO comes out with some solid solution. Isn't the seasonal trend for these cold airmasses to be over-modeled and the fronts don't make it as far SE as earlier thought? In this case that north and northwest trend of things this season may help out in this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Pretty good turn of events here at 00z for you guys down there. I'm getting the feeling that this may turn out to be something decent for someone in New England... southern/eastern areas from CT (that's for you Blizz) up through downeast ME. In this winter even 2-4" is a decent synoptic event, if it were to continue that trend. Covers the grass, snows decently for a bit... good stuff this year. Hopefully the EURO comes out with some solid solution. Isn't the seasonal trend for these cold airmasses to be over-modeled and the fronts don't make it as far SE as earlier thought? In this case that north and northwest trend of things this season may help out in this situation. It would be nice, because I was hoping it wouldn't be banking on an inv trough or squalls. Synoptic stuff would be nice and perhaps we can get some of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Poor Ray. The trends are not his friend. Canadian is much improved as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 00z GFS is a significant improvement. There's actually some discernible s/w ridging ahead of the trough, and a tighter thermal wave developing on the thickness charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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