ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 One thing I like about the NAM thus far is that the southern energy in Texas is weaker and the energy in Missouri is stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Even by 12 hours...can see that it's shifted the energy up near MN about 200-300 miles west...much more towards the GFS type solutions. I use the GFS as reference because I'm assuming it roughly represents all the other solutions that were not the NAM. The timing isn't the same in the south, doesn't match any previous GFS or NAM run so we're likely to see some other solution now one way or the other. The NAM has now appropriately shifted the northern energy further west earlier on, and has come towards consensus/continued to correct in the south. So this should get a bit more interesting one way or the other. I agree..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 The 0.5" line didn't shift east too far, but the 0.25" line did. Just saying what it showed. oh i know. just saying what i saw as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Even by 12 hours...can see that it's shifted the energy up near MN about 200-300 miles west...much more towards the GFS type solutions. I use the GFS as reference because I'm assuming it roughly represents all the other solutions that were not the NAM. The timing isn't the same in the south, doesn't match any previous GFS or NAM run so we're likely to see some other solution now one way or the other. The NAM has now appropriately shifted the northern energy further west earlier on, and has come towards consensus/continued to correct in the south. So this should get a bit more interesting one way or the other. The NAM might have corrected west with the vorticity but its also focusing in on a different piece of energy that none of the GFS runs have before. So this new 0z data probably will be more interesting once the GFS gets going later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 biggest 0z runs in a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 looks like nam is actually holding back the s/w more nam should be good IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 NAM looks more potent with the s/w coming out of Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Northern stream looks a little stronger and south west then 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 NAM looks more potent with the s/w coming out of Wisconsin. It has heights pumped up slightly ahead of the northern stream compared to 18z...hopefully that means better things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 On one hand the NAM looks better, on the other hand.... whoops hit the button, on the other hand it's developing two lows at 30 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 it doesn't look terrible different than the 18z GFS if you throw them surface to surface. It's not the same, the GFS has one broad area of low pressure in that same orientation, the NAM closes two off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREFPROBNE_21z/probsnwloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 NAM looks ugly to me through 33ish compared to the old 12z NAM. It's got a lot of moisture blossoming WTF out east of florida and it's losing the surface reflection off the Hatteras area temporarily. I don't think it's a gonner, but I think the 12z solution it had surely is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 We really need to consolidate those 2 lows and see the one closer to the coast be more dominant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 http://www.meteo.psu...robsnwloop.html Nice little 4" prob bump for KTAN + KBOB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 NAM looks ugly to me through 33ish compared to the old 12z NAM. It's got a lot of moisture blossoming WTF out east of florida and it's losing the surface reflection off the Hatteras area temporarily. I don't think it's a gonner, but I think the 12z solution it had surely is? That was the western outlier so it should come east, which is great for us. 00z looks on track to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 at 36 hours, it looks disorganized...verbatim on this run, if we get good snows, they're going to form on top of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Just looking at the nrn stream energy, this should be a little closer or at least more of a broad precip shield, than 18z. At least how it looks right now at hr 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 NAM looks ugly to me through 33ish compared to the old 12z NAM. It's got a lot of moisture blossoming WTF out east of florida and it's losing the surface reflection off the Hatteras area temporarily. I don't think it's a gonner, but I think the 12z solution it had surely is? I think the 12z NAM solution was probably a pipe dream anyway. It was giving 12" of snow to some areas. I don't think we are going to get things consolidated enough for that type of solution. Probably something like other global guidance. NAM usually has a couple runs where it goes crazy in these complicated setups. If there is one trend I'm encouraged to see, is that the northern stream continues to get stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 That was the western outlier so it should come east, which is great for us. 00z looks on track to me. Only thing is it's even further east than the 18z GFS, so in this instance those slight differences from earlier runs may have gone against us. At least through h40 or so, it's east on the western flank comapred to even the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I think the 12z NAM solution was probably a pipe dream anyway. It was giving 12" of snow to some areas. I don't think we are going to get things consolidated enough for that type of solution. Probably something like other global guidance. NAM usually has a couple runs where it goes crazy in these complicated setups. If there is one trend I'm encouraged to see, is that the northern stream continues to get stronger. That's true but we're running short on time, and we're seeing a growing focus WTF offshore which is going to present problems possibly or at least helps to delay development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I'm home in Westchester for the weekend, and the 0z NAM gives a nice hit here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 This reminds me of a storm last year (I think) that had a blob of energy from the southern stream that some on here thought was convective feedback..but it ended up being real..effectively sucking the energy from the low closer to the coast..and sliding most of the precip out to sea. I can't recall the specific date..but it was similar to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I'm home in Westchester for the weekend, and the 0z NAM gives a nice hit here. yes it does, nice little front running snow shortly after midnight, followed by a 6 hour+ period of steady snows. More than happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Why is guidance forming two LP's? Feedback. Shouldn't it eventually focus on one dominant LP...or should I say, isn't it more likely that it will focus on one or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 That's true but we're running short on time, and we're seeing a growing focus WTF offshore which is going to present problems possibly or at least helps to delay development. The NAM loves to go nuts on stupid things like spurious lows over the gulf stream, etc. Not that it's spurious, but I find it can look weird due to it's mesoscale nature. I like to look at the 500mb charts as a better gauge as to how the low may look. That's usually a better way to look at it, and is more removed from these stupid lows when a storm is first forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 NAM starts to develop precip over the region. I'm dubious of this model anyway, but it's just such a weird setup with these dual lows and a low that appears to roll well under the BM. Maybe Will is onto something with the northern energy, maybe that's enough to work on available moisture itself.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 LOL@ analysis...mets analyzing things completely different than everyone else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I think the 12z NAM solution was probably a pipe dream anyway. It was giving 12" of snow to some areas. I don't think we are going to get things consolidated enough for that type of solution. Probably something like other global guidance. NAM usually has a couple runs where it goes crazy in these complicated setups. If there is one trend I'm encouraged to see, is that the northern stream continues to get stronger. I agree and i think that will help us in future runs if its real.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Well it's a little more widespread, but no where near the intensity of the 12z and 18z runs. Probably a little more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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