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Feb 11/12 Storm Disco II


Baroclinic Zone

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12hr Prob Snowfall>= 1in 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.9 33.9 53.1 80.8 81.1 79.5 70.1

12hr Prob Snowfall>= 2in 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.4 32.4 60.5 64.9 64.4 43.0

12hr Prob Snowfall>= 4in 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 20.2 29.1 26.3 19.0

12hr Prob Snowfall>= 6in 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8 9.6 2.6

12hr Prob Snowfall>= 8in 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

12hr Prob Snowfall>=10in 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3-5 for you, Kev..

Thanks dude..I'd like to see the picture graph though
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Thanks dude..I'd like to see the picture graph though

Do you read other posts????

They've always had it, but it used to only do 09z and 21z and it took forever to update so it was kind of useless, but its better now with all 4 runs and updates quicker now.

Ewall still is the fastest...but today their 15z prob map never updated.

The SREFs will be telling tonight. Its really good to see them NW as they are almost always SE of other guidance. Epic run of the NAM tonight. Wouldn't really know what to think if it shows a Typhoon Tip Archambault.

Any analogs to this one mets? Haven't seen any thrown around.

I was actually comparing the 18z GFS vs. the 12z GFS and the 500mb map actually looked better on the 18z model run. I really think its just suffering from feedback. Time will tell I guess.

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We don't have any ticks here, they all died from heat exhaustion during that last cold snap you forecast.

Harv just stressed again that he's favoring the low amounts but that the storm is going to really deepen fast...he was hedging way more than normal. Very uncharacteristic.

I don't know anything about Harv. Andy (Wx4cast) is the only TV met I ever pay any attention to. I'm going to stop troliing you in this thread but if you want to move it to the Obs/Banter thread I'll be happy to continue mocking your balmy climate.

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They've always had it, but it used to only do 09z and 21z and it took forever to update so it was kind of useless, but its better now with all 4 runs and updates quicker now.

Ewall still is the fastest...but today their 15z prob map never updated.

Yeah that's great. I probably didn't look at that site enough to realize they had the SREF.

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I just can't wait until tomorrow afternoon when the 9z/15z/21z SREFS come out when we are in the range the SREF is best in. Really want to see exactly where the cutoff in QPF is and what the SREFS paint out QPF wise. One thing I am a bit nervous about is QPF slightly being cut off either b/c of a slightly eastward track or just b/c they do. It's still pretty crazy seeing the NA spit out what it has been.

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0z NAM looks much more like the 12z GFS at 500mb at init with those two speed maxes near the panhandle. Faster than the 12z NAM, more of a dip near the panhandle. Also structure is now much closer north of the dakotas. It still has two distinct lobes down near the panhandle where the GFS was beginning to shear one out, but that's probably just a resolution difference.

I expect the NAM is coming back to reality and at least around the envelope of solutions we had earlier.

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Even by 12 hours...can see that it's shifted the energy up near MN about 200-300 miles west...much more towards the GFS type solutions. I use the GFS as reference because I'm assuming it roughly represents all the other solutions that were not the NAM.

The timing isn't the same in the south, doesn't match any previous GFS or NAM run so we're likely to see some other solution now one way or the other. The NAM has now appropriately shifted the northern energy further west earlier on, and has come towards consensus/continued to correct in the south.

So this should get a bit more interesting one way or the other.

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