Mr Torchey Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 If that ss can slow down or wash out, I would think climo combined with a strong piece of ns energy and an excellent baroclinic zone, with excellent above normal fuel to our se would yield a snowier picture than what some models are producing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Just change the reporting station in the link What's the direct link to look at other stations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 0Z runs are going to be interesting for sure tonight im hoping to see them converge on a solution and im sure everyone else would like to see the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 12hr Prob Snowfall>= 1in 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.9 33.9 53.1 80.8 81.1 79.5 70.1 12hr Prob Snowfall>= 2in 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.4 32.4 60.5 64.9 64.4 43.0 12hr Prob Snowfall>= 4in 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 20.2 29.1 26.3 19.0 12hr Prob Snowfall>= 6in 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8 9.6 2.6 12hr Prob Snowfall>= 8in 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12hr Prob Snowfall>=10in 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3-5 for you, Kev.. Thanks dude..I'd like to see the picture graph though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Thanks dude..I'd like to see the picture graph though Do you read other posts???? They've always had it, but it used to only do 09z and 21z and it took forever to update so it was kind of useless, but its better now with all 4 runs and updates quicker now. Ewall still is the fastest...but today their 15z prob map never updated. The SREFs will be telling tonight. Its really good to see them NW as they are almost always SE of other guidance. Epic run of the NAM tonight. Wouldn't really know what to think if it shows a Typhoon Tip Archambault. Any analogs to this one mets? Haven't seen any thrown around. I was actually comparing the 18z GFS vs. the 12z GFS and the 500mb map actually looked better on the 18z model run. I really think its just suffering from feedback. Time will tell I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Do you read other posts???? Not yours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Can someone recap for me what time all of the models come out for 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 We don't have any ticks here, they all died from heat exhaustion during that last cold snap you forecast. Harv just stressed again that he's favoring the low amounts but that the storm is going to really deepen fast...he was hedging way more than normal. Very uncharacteristic. I don't know anything about Harv. Andy (Wx4cast) is the only TV met I ever pay any attention to. I'm going to stop troliing you in this thread but if you want to move it to the Obs/Banter thread I'll be happy to continue mocking your balmy climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 They've always had it, but it used to only do 09z and 21z and it took forever to update so it was kind of useless, but its better now with all 4 runs and updates quicker now. Ewall still is the fastest...but today their 15z prob map never updated. Yeah that's great. I probably didn't look at that site enough to realize they had the SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Can someone recap for me what time all of the models come out for 0z? Times to tune in to forums (the model output begins earlier...0Z suite: NAM: 9:30pm GFS: 11:30pm EURO: 1am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Can someone recap for me what time all of the models come out for 0z? NAM starts around 8:45-8:50. GFS starts around 10:30 Ukie around 10:50-11pm or so. Will would know. Canadian is around 11:20 or so I think. Euro starts at 12:45am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 ? 0Z suite: NAM: 9:30pm GFS: 11:30pm EURO: 1am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 ? Was giving him times to tune in to the forums, which I assume is what he was asking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 yeah but an hour late lol Was giving him times to tune in to the forums, which I assume is what he was asking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I just can't wait until tomorrow afternoon when the 9z/15z/21z SREFS come out when we are in the range the SREF is best in. Really want to see exactly where the cutoff in QPF is and what the SREFS paint out QPF wise. One thing I am a bit nervous about is QPF slightly being cut off either b/c of a slightly eastward track or just b/c they do. It's still pretty crazy seeing the NA spit out what it has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 For better or worse here she comes, players are all on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 BTV WRF is nice for SE MA. That H85 frontogenesis goes to town. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/html/4kmwrf/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 BTV WRF is nice for SE MA. That H85 frontogenesis goes to town. http://www.erh.noaa....tv/html/4kmwrf/ Thats a fantastic link, cant believe I never used it, thanks for posting it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 http://wxcaster.com/models_text.htm I use that site often to look at text soundings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Nam about to start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Looks like snow is into extreme SE CT by 4:00-5:00 am Sat morning..just like that last Saturday snowstorm in Jan. running in the cold dry air with virga not making it down FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The great thing about the 0z run is Kev's been asleep for 3 hours so there's more pure analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Looks like SREFs ticked east a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 0z NAM looks much more like the 12z GFS at 500mb at init with those two speed maxes near the panhandle. Faster than the 12z NAM, more of a dip near the panhandle. Also structure is now much closer north of the dakotas. It still has two distinct lobes down near the panhandle where the GFS was beginning to shear one out, but that's probably just a resolution difference. I expect the NAM is coming back to reality and at least around the envelope of solutions we had earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 Looks like SREFs ticked east a bit. mean SLP does not look too different. 10-15m SE shift? 0.5" mean cuts accross SE MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 For better or worse here she comes, players are all on the table. That's a pic that at least looks like it has a lot of potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Even by 12 hours...can see that it's shifted the energy up near MN about 200-300 miles west...much more towards the GFS type solutions. I use the GFS as reference because I'm assuming it roughly represents all the other solutions that were not the NAM. The timing isn't the same in the south, doesn't match any previous GFS or NAM run so we're likely to see some other solution now one way or the other. The NAM has now appropriately shifted the northern energy further west earlier on, and has come towards consensus/continued to correct in the south. So this should get a bit more interesting one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Looks like SREFs ticked east a bit. Boooo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 mean SLP does not look too different. 10-15m SE shift? 0.5" mean cuts accross SE MA The 0.5" line didn't shift east too far, but the 0.25" line did. Just saying what it showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Looking at 12 hour, probably the best fit..but not quite as it's a little further west up north, not as deep in the south...is the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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