N. OF PIKE Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 scott 18z ens. were east of 18z OP? but the ens qpf is much heavier than op (like 12z lens) ? interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I saw the 18z ensembles every 6 hrs. They are a bit east of the op, but it looks like precip wise, they weren't much different. Hrmmm...they looked NW of the op to me...but SE of the 12z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Bouchard banking on the boundary layer being warm which if the precip id really light at first, may be a mix I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Hrmmm...they looked NW of the op to me...but SE of the 12z GEFS. I'm sorry, I meant east of the 12z GEFS. Duh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 scott 18z ens. were east of 18z OP? but the ens qpf is much heavier than op (like 12z lens) ? interesting Nope, see edit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 15z SREF has 77% for BOS >1", 65% >2", 32% >4", 14% >6" ORH is 94%, 82%, 41%, and 9% respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 They're giving themselves a pretty wide range, why not just put out one that shows 1-6 everywhere. I'm really surprised all those stations were even putting snowfall graphics out this early in the game. I would've thought wait till at least after the 00z runs tonight. You still have all day tomorrow to put up accumulation maps. Given the uncertainty, it just seemed a bit premature. Throw the first one up during the morning newscast tomorrow and then you can hit it at noon and again for the evening news. Instead I have a feeling we'll be seeing changes to these maps (maybe significant) depending on where the models trend over the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Some solid hits in there for ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It's like 13" to 3" over the last few weeks, you've got a lot of catching up to do regardless. LOL, keep telling yourself that. It'll help take the sting out of looking at a snowless, tick infested landscape day after putrid warm day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It's perfect timing for maximum stickability. Later mornig start gives sun thru clouds and ground chance to warm whaddayou live in DC? jeebus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 15z SREF has 77% for BOS >1", 65% >2", 32% >4", 14% >6" ORH is 94%, 82%, 41%, and 9% respectively. Where do yo get the actual percentages? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Where do yo get the actual percentages? http://68.226.77.253/text/SREF/SREF_KORH.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 why would anyone in new england be worried about sun angle in mid february? i think it could go in either direction... this isn't an unfavorable pattern: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 15z SREF has 77% for BOS >1", 65% >2", 32% >4", 14% >6" ORH is 94%, 82%, 41%, and 9% respectively. Interesting that ORH has higher probs straight through 4+".... I would've thought BOS would have a better shot at all the snowfall amounts over ORH. Not that I don't think ORH is in a good spot for this one, just based on the set-up unless the SREFS are really warm in the boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 LOL, keep telling yourself that. It'll help take the sting out of looking at a snowless, tick infested landscape day after putrid warm day. We don't have any ticks here, they all died from heat exhaustion during that last cold snap you forecast. Harv just stressed again that he's favoring the low amounts but that the storm is going to really deepen fast...he was hedging way more than normal. Very uncharacteristic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Tonight should be fun its been a long time since we have had something to track this close in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 http://68.226.77.253...F/SREF_KORH.txt That's off of the Earl Barker site...right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 http://68.226.77.253...F/SREF_KORH.txt That's cool, I never knew they had that. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Not 10 in a row. Highly unlikely. I agree. We were having a parallel stats discussion. I still feel this one. It's coming imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 http://68.226.77.253...F/SREF_KORH.txt What's the direct link to look at other stations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I'm really surprised all those stations were even putting snowfall graphics out this early in the game. I would've thought wait till at least after the 00z runs tonight. You still have all day tomorrow to put up accumulation maps. Given the uncertainty, it just seemed a bit premature. Throw the first one up during the morning newscast tomorrow and then you can hit it at noon and again for the evening news. Instead I have a feeling we'll be seeing changes to these maps (maybe significant) depending on where the models trend over the next 24 hours. Yeah, I agree there could be significant changes and a little too soon on the map. I think one of those maps that show greatest chance of accumulation would have sufficed this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Interesting that ORH has higher probs straight through 4+".... I would've thought BOS would have a better shot at all the snowfall amounts over ORH. Not that I don't think ORH is in a good spot for this one, just based on the set-up unless the SREFS are really warm in the boundary layer. SREFs tend to under estimate the snow chances when the BL is marginal, so that is probably bringing the BOS numbers down a bit. Though if the event ends up weak and less precip, BOS will struggle more so I can see the probs for 1" or 2" being higher for ORH, but I don't really agree with the 4" probs being higher here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 What's the direct link to look at other stations? http://wxcaster.com/models_text.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 That's cool, I never knew they had that. Nice. I've looked at that site many times and never even noticed the SREF choice there..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Gun to head right now I'd say 4" for UConn 4" for the rev and 2" back at home. Maybe bob pulls 6" out of this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I've looked at that site many times and never even noticed the SREF choice there..lol. They've always had it, but it used to only do 09z and 21z and it took forever to update so it was kind of useless, but its better now with all 4 runs and updates quicker now. Ewall still is the fastest...but today their 15z prob map never updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 15z SREF has 77% for BOS >1", 65% >2", 32% >4", 14% >6" ORH is 94%, 82%, 41%, and 9% respectively. IJD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 IJD? 12hr Prob Snowfall>= 1in 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.9 33.9 53.1 80.8 81.1 79.5 70.1 12hr Prob Snowfall>= 2in 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.4 32.4 60.5 64.9 64.4 43.0 12hr Prob Snowfall>= 4in 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 20.2 29.1 26.3 19.0 12hr Prob Snowfall>= 6in 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8 9.6 2.6 12hr Prob Snowfall>= 8in 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12hr Prob Snowfall>=10in 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3-5 for you, Kev.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Awesome I never knew about that either http://wxcaster.com/models_text.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 http://wxcaster.com/models_text.htm Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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