ski MRG Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Pete I've had more snow events and probably more snow in the last couple of weeks than you I think the 18z GFS should be taken with a grain of salt for the moment. There's a weak feature at 5h that I mentioned earlier...it exits over Brownsville about this time Friday. The GFS ends up spinning that up into a pretty intense feature offshore...I think through true convective feedback on this run....the 500mb feature intensifies more than it apparently should. In the end I'd say go with NCEP and the EURO/GFS & ens compromise, forget the NAM for now (and probably ignore this run of the GFS for now)...the NAM could still end up being right for the wrong reasons but is probably too far NW. 24" here in January with snow OTG currently , how did you do last month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Sun angle, damn LMAO. Most prolific snow climo week of the year, sun must have been lower in the last 100 years, Earth axis tilt FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 24" here in January with snow OTG currently , how did you do last month? I've had more snow than you while you were gone Pete/last few weeks. Will probably get more snow out of this next one than you too, and got snow last night. You can have your couple of week old parking lot pile grade snow, I'll take the new white. Plus we have daffodils blooming down here to provide a great landscape contrast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Sun angle, damn LMAO. Most prolific snow climo week of the year, sun must have been lower in the last 100 years, Earth axis tilt FTW Sun angle is so high it's melting the ice in my fridge. Must be the solar activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 wxsniss yes i understand that. it's difficult not to think regardless the OTS low bombing may just occur and screw us none the less esp when a good phase in time for us seems like a unlikely scenario per noyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Sun angle and warm ground are the two weakest arguments I have ever seen for accumulating snow, if it snows at a good clip its a non factor, I have seen snow accumulate instantly at 37 and in October and April. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Upton bullish here, 2-5, take it and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 My sig has current snow totals. 3.25" fell here while I was away, my wife and eldest daughter kept track for me. Only 3.25" while you were away? That must've been from that storm that hit southern areas with a solid 7-10" snowfall from LitchfieldLibations to Messenger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Sun angle and warm ground are the two weakest arguments I have ever seen for accumulating snow, if it snows at a good clip its a non factor, I have seen snow accumulate instantly at 37 and in October and April. Next. Only time it comes into play this early is with OES near the 32 mark. The thin layer of clouds doesn't reflect as much raditation and it can make accumulations more difficult. Will have a negligble impact with a system like this. warm ground...it's been way above normal yet shaded areas are still covered in last nights .3 to .4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Personally I think the GFS is bunk.... won't help me this far west, but big implications in SNE. It's done this kind of thing in the past. Will take a look at the 3h jet streak on the GFS, why would the LP be 400 miles east of the LFE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Sun angle and warm ground are the two weakest arguments I have ever seen for accumulating snow, if it snows at a good clip its a non factor, I have seen snow accumulate instantly at 37 and in October and April. Next. this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 He was still here for that. It would have been from the Upslope/LES stuff we got early last week mainly. Only 3.25" while you were away? That must've been from that storm that hit southern areas with a solid 7-10" snowfall from LitchfieldLibations to Messenger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I don't believe that is true. OSUmet posted the stats the other day... the ECM is handily beating the GFS at H5, at least around Day 4-5. At least I'm pretty sure that's what the scores were for. I recently saw a product posted on American that showed the GFS was superior from D1-8; not sure who posted that. I didn't see OSU's stuff so it was what it was... But, I personally distinctly recall the Euro blowing it several times when the GFS did not, during that time span. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I've had more snow than you while you were gone Pete/last few weeks. Will probably get more snow out of this next one than you too, and got snow last night. You can have your couple of week old parking lot pile grade snow, I'll take the new white. Plus we have daffodils blooming down here to provide a great landscape contrast. I like snow that falls and then stays put. A few inches of snow that vaporizes immediately after falling is one of the saddest things I can think of. Daffodils. Pfftt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 wxsniss yes i understand that. it's difficult not to think regardless the OTS low bombing may just occur and screw us none the less esp when a good phase in time for us seems like a unlikely scenario per noyes We'll see... and I know you understand. I'm just being particular / keeping conversation going. Right now (and this may change > 48 hrs away), the fly in the ointment is the southern stream vortmax that barrels through and develops a surface low that is too far southeast for a phase with the northern stream vortmax --> hence we get a stretched out double-lobed mess with QPF robbed by the southern stream-induced low. If that southern energy trends closer to the coast (whether because it's weaker or slower), the solutions on the globals could change dramatically, not just a slight NW bump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I like snow that falls and then stays put. A few inches of snow that vaporizes immediately after falling is one of the saddest things I can think of. Daffodils. Pfftt. Great video of the snow and flowers. Decent chance they'll be covered in a nice blanket of white to protect them from the coming onslaught of cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Only 3.25" while you were away? That must've been from that storm that hit southern areas with a solid 7-10" snowfall from LitchfieldLibations to Messenger. Was that the one that melted the next day? Wait, they all do down there. Nevermind. LOL, it's good to see all the same characters here. Great fun to jab back and forth. I hope everybody gets snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 ...OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLC AND NORTHEAST... MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY WILL HELP CARRY A STRONG COLD FRONT EASTWARD WITH MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCALLY OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED QPF INTO WEST VIRGINIA AND THE NRN APPALACHIANS. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY SAT MORNING AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD UP THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHIFTED WEST WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TOWARD THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK WHICH IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT TO MODERATE QPF FOR SRN NEW ENGLAND...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HAVE SHIFTED QPF WESTWARD FROM CONTINUITY IN LINE WITH A 12Z GFS/12Z UKMET BLEND. THINKING THAT AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS...DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN WILL INCREASE AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS TAPPED WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKING MOISTURE WESTWARD OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER BANDS DEVELOPING JUST AS THE LOW IS EXITING THE REGION. HIGHEST QPF IS PAINTED OVER SOUTHEASTERN MASS AND EASTERN MAINE BUT POTENTIAL FUTURE WESTWARD TRENDS OF THE SURFACE LOW COULD PULL HEAVIER QPF WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ALMOST BUT NOT QUITE TO HARTFORD AND THE BERKSHIRES. PLEASE SEE THE QPFHSD FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION DETAILS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Great video of the snow and flowers. Decent chance they'll be covered in a nice blanket of white to protect them from the coming onslaught of cold. I just gacked a bit of lunch up. Gross. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I recently saw a product posted on American that showed the GFS was superior from D1-8; not sure who posted that. I didn't see OSU's stuff so it was what it was... But, I personally distinctly recall the Euro blowing it several times when the GFS did not, during that time span. Interesting... yeah I'd be inclined to agree with you though I know I read a post by OSU where the ECM was beating the GFS at 500mb at day 5. Either way, I do feel like the GFS has been a better model for some of these events than the ECM. I have no horse in the race but as your original post was alluding to, it would be foolish to just throw out the GFS because some posters think its a useless model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 We'll see... and I know you understand. I'm just being particular / keeping conversation going. Right now (and this may change > 48 hrs away), the fly in the ointment is the southern stream vortmax that barrels through and develops a surface low that is too far southeast for a phase with the northern stream vortmax --> hence we get a stretched out double-lobed mess with QPF robbed by the southern stream-induced low. If that southern energy trends closer to the coast (whether because it's weaker or slower), the solutions on the globals could change dramatically, not just a slight NW bump. don't we have any one with access to a planet that could ....drop something in this vort tonite out west and weaken it send the rev up in a plane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Interesting... yeah I'd be inclined to agree with you though I know I read a post by OSU where the ECM was beating the GFS at 500mb at day 5. Either way, I do feel like the GFS has been a better model for some of these events than the ECM. I have no horse in the race but as your original post was alluding to, it would be foolish to just throw out the GFS because some posters think its a useless model. Was OSU's the running totals ...? If it was just the 30 day mean -vs- that may account for differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I can't wait for the "nowcast" time... Messenger in full on snow tracking mode with the RUC and HRR. Buoys. Going to be good times on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 18z RGEM went way SE too. Schnikeys this RGEM run is a disasta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It would be awful if this thing charged NW in the last 24hrs like most of the systems this winter leaving the Easterner's with mixing issues and crushing GC with heavy snow. But hey, when does that ever happen? Enjoy your cirrus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I recently saw a product posted on American that showed the GFS was superior from D1-8; not sure who posted that. I didn't see OSU's stuff so it was what it was... But, I personally distinctly recall the Euro blowing it several times when the GFS did not, during that time span. I don't believe it was anything to do with NHEM H5...maybe it was some specific MJO graph?The Euro still owns the mid/long range upper level pattern though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 ...OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLC AND NORTHEAST... MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY WILL HELP CARRY A STRONG COLD FRONT EASTWARD WITH MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCALLY OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED QPF INTO WEST VIRGINIA AND THE NRN APPALACHIANS. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY SAT MORNING AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD UP THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHIFTED WEST WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TOWARD THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK WHICH IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT TO MODERATE QPF FOR SRN NEW ENGLAND...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HAVE SHIFTED QPF WESTWARD FROM CONTINUITY IN LINE WITH A 12Z GFS/12Z UKMET BLEND. THINKING THAT AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS...DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN WILL INCREASE AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS TAPPED WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKING MOISTURE WESTWARD OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER BANDS DEVELOPING JUST AS THE LOW IS EXITING THE REGION. HIGHEST QPF IS PAINTED OVER SOUTHEASTERN MASS AND EASTERN MAINE BUT POTENTIAL FUTURE WESTWARD TRENDS OF THE SURFACE LOW COULD PULL HEAVIER QPF WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ALMOST BUT NOT QUITE TO HARTFORD AND THE BERKSHIRES. PLEASE SEE THE QPFHSD FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION DETAILS. Nice try sucka, I see BL issues in your future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Was OSU's the running totals ...? If it was just the 30 day mean -vs- that may account for differences. Honestly I don't remember... I just tried searching for the post but I can never seem to use the search function to find anything on this forum, lol. Edit: I see Dendrite posted the scores above... so yes, it was the ECM that was still beating the GFS at H5 out in the mid range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 ...OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLC AND NORTHEAST... MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY WILL HELP CARRY A STRONG COLD FRONT EASTWARD WITH MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCALLY OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED QPF INTO WEST VIRGINIA AND THE NRN APPALACHIANS. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY SAT MORNING AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD UP THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHIFTED WEST WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TOWARD THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK WHICH IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT TO MODERATE QPF FOR SRN NEW ENGLAND...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HAVE SHIFTED QPF WESTWARD FROM CONTINUITY IN LINE WITH A 12Z GFS/12Z UKMET BLEND. THINKING THAT AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS...DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN WILL INCREASE AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS TAPPED WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKING MOISTURE WESTWARD OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER BANDS DEVELOPING JUST AS THE LOW IS EXITING THE REGION. HIGHEST QPF IS PAINTED OVER SOUTHEASTERN MASS AND EASTERN MAINE BUT POTENTIAL FUTURE WESTWARD TRENDS OF THE SURFACE LOW COULD PULL HEAVIER QPF WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ALMOST BUT NOT QUITE TO MT TOLLAND AND THE BERKSHIRES. PLEASE SEE THE QPFHSD FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION DETAILS. interesting... ha-ha. annnyway, ... I was remember back along a few of the systems that have affected the area over the last couple years, how sometimes you don't want the low to pass as close as the models said and it ultimately did (and everyone was all excited...), because the big deformation band snow totals wound up west throwing a monkey wrench of disappointment for a lot of people. If this treks a 100 clicks closer than a nice band might just slab across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Nice try sucka, I see BL issues in your future. If the RGEM/GFS are right at 18z and the low gets no closer than 36/70 the light rain that falls will at least clear the roads here. WBZ on now, Boston +9 on the high, +7 on the low...and it still snowed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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