weatherMA Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Does anyone really care what the GFS is showing lol? I mean honestly?? It's not just the goofus...the euro gave you like 1.6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Usually when this happens we end up praying for a hail mary inverted trough feature and end up with a general 1-3. yup and even with all the red flags being thrown about we ALL are fearful of the offshore low bombing and stealing the show and thus in this winter it appears most likely scenario watch we'll have snow showers with lucky dustings hear and there as offshore low steals the show...0z gfs and ens will be key IMO so we got this winter's ju ju against red flags on gefs and euro ens (to less degree both being nw of op with qpf) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 the sun angle at solar noon now is only 8.7 degrees higher in the sky than at the winter solstice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It would be awful if this thing charged NW in the last 24hrs like most of the systems this winter leaving the Easterner's with mixing issues and crushing GC with heavy snow. But hey, when does that ever happen? What are talking about? Besides 10/29 you haven't been crushed in GC this year at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Kevs very worst nightmare 4-6 for me grass for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Either way, I think it's safe to hold off on any possible numbers til tonights runs at least. Probably 12z tomorrow to be safe. The effects of that small southern stream energy seem to be so heavily echoed in what the low does that until the N and S streams are figured out a little more it's really just a crap shoot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 GFS seems weird developing the low soooo far out to sea with that piece of southern stream energy. I panned through the 7H maps first and thought we had a closer low ...then saw what the GFS was up to. Quite the difference between the NAM and everyone else... this is going to be a good battle down to start time. I'd feel pretty good though if I were from ETaunton up towards BOS area... Messenger, CapeCodwx, etc. Hopefully it ticks more NW for some of the interior crowd up towards HFD-ORH line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Does anyone really care what the GFS is showing lol? I mean honestly?? Over the last 45 days it has better verification than the Euro - a fact that is being routinely ignored/and or not registered. Doens't mean that will true here, no ...but just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Does anyone really care what the GFS is showing lol? I mean honestly?? Is the NAM the only model really showing something bigger than a 1-3" interior, and 3-6" SE MA and coastal areas? GFS and ECM seem pretty similar. Not sure I'd toss those in favor of the NAM, although that does look tasty for a Ginx firepit session. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 That southern vort is really annoying. Its definitely something that will play a huge role in a light snow vs a mod/heavy snowfall. Will take a look at the 3h jet streak on the GFS, why would the LP be 400 miles east of the LFE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It would be awful if this thing charged NW in the last 24hrs like most of the systems this winter leaving the Easterner's with mixing issues and crushing GC with heavy snow. But hey, when does that ever happen? this year it's possible but more likely out to sea with bombing offshore low while as ray says "were all smoking cirrus" and EVEN the 1-3 we had in the bank yesterday goes bye bye in replace of dustings with lolli's to an inch I wonder mets.....what is the likelihood of the offshore low bombing and qpf screwing us.....what would make this more likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It's not just the goofus...the euro gave you like 1.6". Euro ens give me 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It is nice that Ryan thinks this may trend west...the last time he felt good about a storm besides 1/21 was 10/29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Euro ens give me 6. I don't think so....gfs ens did have .5" back to almost ORH. I didn't see the euro ens though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 What are talking about? Besides 10/29 you haven't been crushed in GC this year at all. Fish On !!!!! January was ok here from a snowfall perspective. Absolutely crushed relative to the rest of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Over the last 45 days it has better verification than the Euro - a fact that is being routinely ignored/and or not registered. Doens't mean that will true here, no ...but just sayin' I don't believe that is true. OSUmet posted the stats the other day... the ECM is handily beating the GFS at H5, at least around Day 4-5. At least I'm pretty sure that's what the scores were for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Does anyone really care what the GFS is showing lol? I mean honestly?? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 this year it's possible but more likely out to sea with bombing offshore low while as ray says "were all smoking cirrus" and EVEN the 1-3 we had in the bank yesterday goes bye bye in replace of dustings with lolli's to an inch I wonder mets.....what is the likelihood of the offshore low bombing and qpf screwing us.....what would make this more likely Lots of pessimism bred by a Winter lacking threats. The good thing is past performance isn't indicative of future results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Fish On !!!!! January was ok here from a snowfall perspective. Absolutely crushed relative to the rest of SNE. LOL Pete... you're someone that never gives up. Always rubbing it in the rest of SNE faces C'mon dude, cheer one of these storms on for the eastern crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Fish On !!!!! January was ok here from a snowfall perspective. Absolutely crushed relative to the rest of SNE. What is your running total so far this year? I know it may have snowed a bit while you were gone but can you at least estimate it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Pete I've had more snow events and probably more snow in the last couple of weeks than you I think the 18z GFS should be taken with a grain of salt for the moment. There's a weak feature at 5h that I mentioned earlier...it exits over Brownsville about this time Friday. The GFS ends up spinning that up into a pretty intense feature offshore...I think through true convective feedback on this run....the 500mb feature intensifies more than it apparently should. In the end I'd say go with NCEP and the EURO/GFS & ens compromise, forget the NAM for now (and probably ignore this run of the GFS for now)...the NAM could still end up being right for the wrong reasons but is probably too far NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Meanwhile, nobody cares about the potential weenie pattern for some in the northeast through the 20th or so...lol. Yeah, I mentioned that 3 days ago, and no one responded. The long wave pattern breaks down and opens up to a train of disturbances across the nation. Snow or rain, gets stormy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It's odd to see the euro ens and gfs ens W and their OP runs continue to be so far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 i got in from fishing today and was all excited to see things sharply taking a snowy turn for sne but the last couple pages..not so much.. maybe i should stay down here through sat and not go back to spfd tomorrow night if i want to see accum snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 LOL Pete... you're someone that never gives up. Always rubbing it in the rest of SNE faces C'mon dude, cheer one of these storms on for the eastern crowd. I'm kidding. Frankly, I'm not at all invested in this. I've just had a major dose of Winter and have snow IMBY to play in so it's all good. But, if given the choice of getting snow here at the expense of the CP or them getting snow and me cirrus, well, I think you know which way I would cruelly cast my vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It's odd to see the euro ens and gfs ens W and their OP runs continue to be so far east. Not really..it means the ens mean is seeing a furthur west solution and means the next set of op runs will be nw of the last Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 right cept for the 18z goofus...lets see what 18z ensembles say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 What is your running total so far this year? I know it may have snowed a bit while you were gone but can you at least estimate it? My sig has current snow totals. 3.25" fell here while I was away, my wife and eldest daughter kept track for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Not really..it means the ens mean is seeing a furthur west solution and means the next set of op runs will be nw of the last Not always...12z gfs ens had .5" from ORH to KTOL...18z gfs op has .15 from ORH to KTOL...if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 yup and even with all the red flags being thrown about we ALL are fearful of the offshore low bombing and stealing the show and thus in this winter it appears most likely scenario watch we'll have snow showers with lucky dustings hear and there as offshore low steals the show...0z gfs and ens will be key IMO so we got this winter's ju ju against red flags on gefs and euro ens (to less degree both being nw of op with qpf) here's where HM's objectivity rant is useful... this is a totally different scenario than we've had all winter... PV digging and potential northern/southern phase off the coast at the right time... suckiness all winter long has no relevance to this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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