N. OF PIKE Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 borderland state park up to wrenthem and foxborough canton sharon look good per nam (and yes per nam is a stretch) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 18z GFS looks initially as though it will be at least a bit cooler...maybe a bit SE...of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I wish that srn stream turd would just vaporize after it intiates cyclogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Of course. But that's not the scenario. The probability of having a 100th flip being heads (50%) is much much higher than having an entire new season of 100 heads in a row. The probability that Ray makes futility this 2011-12 season is much much higher than his making futility next year or any future year. To be continued over a beer sometime, this has got to be annoying people lol. And Ray's thumb is tired. Yes now I understand. But probability can't be applied easily in climate while coin flipping it's 50/50. I'm pretty optimistic for Saturday. GFS through 45 hours looks like it's going to deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 This could be my biggest snowfall thus far. I think for many in eastern Mass (particularly Boston metro), this could be bigger than the past 4 months of snowfall combined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 18z GFS looks initially as though it will be at least a bit cooler...maybe a bit SE...of 12z Way slower then the nam...at 15z Saturday event is just starting while on the nam the main event is around 15z-18z...I would probably favor the nam's timing as events always seem to start earlier then forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 If Bos gets 6" and we get 1" at UConn I'd probably tear my hair out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 gfs is definitely SE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/2012/02/so-whats-the-deal-on-saturday-snow-in-the-northeast.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 southern stream energy screws the pooch again on 18z gfs and too far southeast to bomb out with the northern vm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Way slower then the nam...at 15z Saturday event is just starting while on the nam the main event is around 15z-18z...I would probably favor the nam's timing as events always seem to start earlier then forecast. Based on the NAM this winter and yesterday I wouldn't favor it for anything aside of laughs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 the GFS is kind of doing what the ukmet did...really bombing that offshore low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Heading wide right to a degree at the last minute. NAM either pulls a coup or is otl. EC/UK/CMC/GFS are agreeing more or less so I think we need to side with the globals for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Yes this makes my point. It can happen 10 years in a row. It's not going to. We have recently entered into a neg NAO global regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 how much did you get in the jan 21 storm? Its in my sig. Its either 4 or 5in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Noyes chucks..Game on http://mnoy.es/Arw5eR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Unless this shifts west at 00z I think consensus is pretty good for 1-3"...3-5" in favored areas of se mass/cape....unless the nam is on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Huh?? Sun angle..It's as high in the sky as October..Capice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 the GFS is kind of doing what the ukmet did...really bombing that offshore low. Usually when this happens we end up praying for a hail mary inverted trough feature and end up with a general 1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Heading wide right to a degree at the last minute. NAM either pulls a coup or is otl. EC/UK/CMC/GFS are agreeing more or less so I think we need to side with the globals for the time being. Jerry like I said...the 12h 500mb 12z NAM vs the 6h 500mb 18z kind of tells us all we need to know. The GFS made minor adjustments as well, but not the mult-hundred mile swings the NAM did with that feature in just 6 hours..and towards the consensus. It's OTL...but could still end up right despite itself if things change. EDIT: That said I think what we may be seeing on the 18z GFS is some true feedback processes...it's trying to place a more dominant low out under that convection and that's probably only going to be the partial story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 This run of the gfs is pretty bad verbatim...Coating to maybe a spot 2" NW of the cape. Maximum qpf is like .35" on the elbow of the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It goes back to saying you have to watch the srn stream vort because it could boot the low out last minute, that said, the GFS may be too far east here. I think the 00z runs should have a much better idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Does anyone really care what the GFS is showing lol? I mean honestly?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 If Bos gets 6" and we get 1" at UConn I'd probably tear my hair out lol Kevs very worst nightmare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Does anyone really care what the GFS is showing lol? I mean honestly?? The threat is there, but I think the 18z GFS op may be too far east. We'll know later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 That southern vort is really annoying. Its definitely something that will play a huge role in a light snow vs a mod/heavy snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It's not going to. We have recently entered into a neg NAO global regime. I'm not entirely convinced just yet. For now that is speculation. If true, of course. In positive NAO regimes there are clusters of closely packed negative NAO years. How do we know that's not happening now? Just throwing this out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Quite the difference between the NAM and everyone else... this is going to be a good battle down to start time. I'd feel pretty good though if I were from ETaunton up towards BOS area... Messenger, CapeCodwx, etc. Hopefully it ticks more NW for some of the interior crowd up towards HFD-ORH line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 If Bos gets 6" and we get 1" at UConn I'd probably tear my hair out lol It would be awful if this thing charged NW in the last 24hrs like most of the systems this winter leaving the Easterner's with mixing issues and crushing GC with heavy snow. But hey, when does that ever happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Meanwhile, nobody cares about the potential weenie pattern for some in the northeast through the 20th or so...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.