Tropopause_Fold Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Yeah, its plenty cold just off the deck...and seeing the winds go north like that leads me to believe it would actually probably be a tick colder at the sfc than the models want to show. It would probably start as a 33-34F paste for BOS and then tick below freezing during the heaviest stuff. yeah i don't see a temp issue for anyone NW of say rt 24 or so. southeast of there i think there are concerns at least for a time. the euro and ukie are plenty cold...but something closer to the GFS (the NAM for certain) would introduce some ptype concerns (far SE) and melting issues (parts of far SE MA). The gfs would be rn/sn mix for a time then just solid snow through the afternoon out here. either way, i don't think temp at BOS will be a factor in 2" vs 6" or whatnot. that'll all come down to synoptics and any last minute meso features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I think it is an issue..The sun is as high in the sky as mid October now...And this isn't going to be anyones biggest snowstorm..Again, hopefully it's not an issue..but it's something to think about Huh?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 The airmass at the surface is kind of garbage so it could start as a 34F snow or something, but probably cools to 32 quick, if rates are good enough. If I'm getting non accumulating snow at 34, chances are this is a bust for all. If this gets closer, I might have to stay home..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 yeah i don't see a temp issue for anyone NW of say rt 24 or so. southeast of there i think there are concerns at least for a time. the euro and ukie are plenty cold...but something closer to the GFS (the NAM for certain) would introduce some ptype concerns (far SE) and melting issues (parts of far SE MA). The gfs would be rn/sn mix for a time then just solid snow through the afternoon out here. either way, i don't think temp at BOS will be a factor in 2" vs 6" or whatnot. that'll all come down to synoptics and any last minute meso features. Yeah agreed. Temps will only be an issue if we end up with lighter qpf and weaker dynamics. Something like the OP Euro might be uglier for the coast...though even SE MA does get in on good precip on the Euro. The bottom line is if this is robust enough to bring advisory snow to ORH-HFD line, then eastern areas will probably be getting paste bombed at 30-32F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I think it is an issue..The sun is as high in the sky as mid October now...And this isn't going to be anyones biggest snowstorm..Again, hopefully it's not an issue..but it's something to think about i'm a newbie to this terminology... what's a "debbie" mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 A mid October sun is early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 sun angle arguments already? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It's possible eastern areas wetbulb their way to 32F and Kevin is mixing at 36F in the aftn...especially if the heavier precip is east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It's possible eastern areas wetbulb their way to 32F and Kevin is mixing at 36F in the aftn...especially if the heavier precip is east. Yes ...this is hoped - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 The airmass at the surface is kind of garbage so it could start as a 34F snow or something, but probably cools to 32 quick, if rates are good enough. If I'm getting non accumulating snow at 34, chances are this is a bust for all. If this gets closer, I might have to stay home..lol. haha..yeah true. that's still sitting in the back of my mind as a possibility - i.e. a steadier shield of precip over SE areas in an atmosphere that isn't quite cold enough yet and lighter stuff NW resulting in mid 30s type -sn. but overall that concern seems a bit less now given some of the solutions on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It's possible eastern areas wetbulb their way to 32F and Kevin is mixing at 36F in the aftn...especially if the heavier precip is east. look at the MM5 freezing levels. it's pretty funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFRI Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Imagine if this verified...lol the 18z nam bufkit for BOS is porn. Has 9.0" for ORH...only 2-3" in CT due to precip issues. But man look at this for BOS...1.0 all snow with 18:1 ratios. :o 120211/1100Z 41 28003KT 33.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 74| 0| 26 120211/1200Z 42 VRB01KT 32.9F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05 78| 0| 22 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 120211/1300Z 43 VRB02KT 33.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 72| 0| 28 120211/1400Z 44 VRB02KT 33.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10 73| 0| 27 120211/1500Z 45 36003KT 32.9F SNOW 15:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.067 15:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.17 85| 0| 15 120211/1600Z 46 36006KT 32.5F SNOW 14:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.083 14:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.25 88| 0| 12 120211/1700Z 47 36008KT 32.4F SNOW 13:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.091 14:1| 3.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34 91| 0| 9 120211/1800Z 48 35009KT 32.4F SNOW 13:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.102 14:1| 4.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.44 90| 0| 10 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 120211/1900Z 49 35009KT 32.2F SNOW 13:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.114 13:1| 6.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.56 100| 0| 0 120211/2000Z 50 35010KT 32.0F SNOW 13:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.106 13:1| 7.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.66 100| 0| 0 120211/2100Z 51 35010KT 31.8F SNOW 16:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.094 14:1| 9.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.76 100| 0| 0 120211/2200Z 52 34012KT 31.6F SNOW 18:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.075 14:1| 10.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.83 100| 0| 0 120211/2300Z 53 34012KT 31.5F SNOW 19:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059 14:1| 11.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.89 100| 0| 0 120212/0000Z 54 33013KT 30.9F SNOW 24:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 15:1| 12.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.93 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 120212/0100Z 55 33014KT 30.6F SNOW 25:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 15:1| 13.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.96 100| 0| 0 120212/0200Z 56 32015KT 30.7F SNOW 24:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 16:1| 13.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.99 100| 0| 0 120212/0300Z 57 32018KT 29.5F SNOW 25:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 16:1| 14.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.00 100| 0| 0 120212/0400Z 58 31019KT 25.9F SNOW 24:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 16:1| 14.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.00 100| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA about time 416 PM EST THU FEB 9 2012.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURETRACKING SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET WILL LIKELY BRING A PLOWABLESNOWFALL TO MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAY. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHERIN A BRIEF SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It's possible eastern areas wetbulb their way to 32F and Kevin is mixing at 36F in the aftn...especially if the heavier precip is east. Yeah, 18z nam bufkit really shows that...more mixing for BDL then for Phil out on the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Imagine if this verified...lol the 18z nam bufkit for BOS is porn. Has 9.0" for ORH...only 2-3" in CT due to precip issues. But man look at this for BOS...1.0 all snow with 18:1 ratios. :o 120211/1100Z 41 28003KT 33.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 74| 0| 26 120211/1200Z 42 VRB01KT 32.9F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05 78| 0| 22 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 120211/1300Z 43 VRB02KT 33.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 72| 0| 28 120211/1400Z 44 VRB02KT 33.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10 73| 0| 27 120211/1500Z 45 36003KT 32.9F SNOW 15:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.067 15:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.17 85| 0| 15 120211/1600Z 46 36006KT 32.5F SNOW 14:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.083 14:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.25 88| 0| 12 120211/1700Z 47 36008KT 32.4F SNOW 13:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.091 14:1| 3.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34 91| 0| 9 120211/1800Z 48 35009KT 32.4F SNOW 13:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.102 14:1| 4.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.44 90| 0| 10 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 120211/1900Z 49 35009KT 32.2F SNOW 13:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.114 13:1| 6.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.56 100| 0| 0 120211/2000Z 50 35010KT 32.0F SNOW 13:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.106 13:1| 7.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.66 100| 0| 0 120211/2100Z 51 35010KT 31.8F SNOW 16:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.094 14:1| 9.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.76 100| 0| 0 120211/2200Z 52 34012KT 31.6F SNOW 18:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.075 14:1| 10.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.83 100| 0| 0 120211/2300Z 53 34012KT 31.5F SNOW 19:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059 14:1| 11.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.89 100| 0| 0 120212/0000Z 54 33013KT 30.9F SNOW 24:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 15:1| 12.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.93 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 120212/0100Z 55 33014KT 30.6F SNOW 25:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 15:1| 13.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.96 100| 0| 0 120212/0200Z 56 32015KT 30.7F SNOW 24:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 16:1| 13.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.99 100| 0| 0 120212/0300Z 57 32018KT 29.5F SNOW 25:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 16:1| 14.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.00 100| 0| 0 120212/0400Z 58 31019KT 25.9F SNOW 24:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 16:1| 14.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.00 100| 0| 0 I don't think I'd count on 13-15:1 ratios for the 1st half of that with 2m temps of 32-33F. It's a good thump regardless though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I think Kevin will through his laptop, phone, and one of his kids out the window if BOS gets a foot while he's mixing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It's possible eastern areas wetbulb their way to 32F and Kevin is mixing at 36F in the aftn...especially if the heavier precip is east. An inch of slop for Kevin with 6" for Boston?????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 sun angle arguments already? LOL clawing and scraping for any parcel of rationale to justify reducing hope and joy... In April ...I think it was 1983, there was a blizzard where it was 17F at Logan at noon during the rage. That sun angle stuff really only is applicable to when the main event is over and your in the pal orb sun showing through a brightened sky with rotted flakes coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I don't think I'd count on 13-15:1 ratios for the 1st half of that with 2m temps of 32-33F. It's a good thump regardless though. Not saying it's likely...but posting what it shows. What's up with the 22:1 ratios later in the storm? I mean...is that even remotely realistic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 look at the MM5 freezing levels. it's pretty funny. LOL, but there is a bit of spring time characteristics to this, so I'm not surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 clawing and scraping for any parcel of rationale to justify reducing hope and joy... In April ...I think it was 1983, there was a blizzard where it was 17F at Logan at noon during the rage. That sun angle stuff really only is applicable to when the main event is over and your in the pal orb sun showing through a brightened sky with rotted flakes coming down. agree. the sun in early feb matters for about the first 5 minutes..if that. unless it's one of those horrendous events where the mid and upper-level cloud canopy is all broken up...but in that case your event sucks anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 An inch of slop for Kevin with 6" for Boston?????? LOL, I'm only joking, but it was funny to see the MM5 that Phil pointed to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Not saying it's likely...but posting what it shows. What's up with the 22:1 ratios later in the storm? I mean...is that even remotely realistic? Maybe it's possible in better banding...H7 temps look decent for larger dendritic formation. However I believe the estimated ratios in that model extraction do not account for compression of the new snow over time...even for 6hr samples. Therefore you'd need to hack the forecasted total-event ratios down a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 I think it is an issue..The sun is as high in the sky as mid October now...And this isn't going to be anyones biggest snowstorm..Again, hopefully it's not an issue..but it's something to think about This could be my biggest snowfall thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 This could be my biggest snowfall thus far. how much did you get in the jan 21 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Right. After 99 heads in a row, the probability of the 100th flip being heads is 50%. Of course. But that's not the scenario. The probability of having a 100th flip being heads (50%) is much much higher than having an entire new season of 100 heads in a row. The probability that Ray makes futility this 2011-12 season is much much higher than his making futility next year or any future year. To be continued over a beer sometime, this has got to be annoying people lol. And Ray's thumb is tired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 whdh not quite bullish yet but getting there. Nice to see Box's map. I'd take 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Of course. But that's not the scenario. The probability of having a 100th flip being heads (50%) is much much higher than having an entire new season of 100 heads in a row. The probability that Ray makes futility this 2011-12 season is much much higher than his making futility next year or any future year. To be continued over a beer sometime, this has got to be annoying people lol. And Ray's thumb is tired. you and 'fella should start a probabilities thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 This could be my biggest snowfall thus far. Ditto for many inside of 495. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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