tamarack Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I honestly would love see a good swath of 4-8 here in Augusta Maine..but hey what ever happens...nice to something on the boards..three storms here so far since Halloween...hoping February will be better I think 1-2" is more likely, though that's an improvement from zero. However, the tradeoff seems to be that the weekend cold snap gets shorter and less impressive - gfs had H85s 4-5C above earlier runs, and both Sat and Mon look less cold than in earlier forecasts. Also, the trough GYX calls for Sunday night would kill the radiational cooling, so no -20 for MBY frost pocket, probably no -10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 The fact that the GFS and EURO ensembles are on and or Northwest of their respective ops is a red flag and leads me to believe they are both coming NW. The fact some GGEM ensembles show a 970 bomb shows the potential. I am also liking a nasty deform band to develop well NW of the low, kinda like helloween. Scott, what's your take on a possible deform band? I expect the GFS to look something like NAM or maybe even NW of it.. the classic NAM GFS swircheroo Your deformation band would probably be closer to the actual low than normal. If the NAM is right, it's more of a case of strong low to mid level convergence which also may keep it closer to the low. Honestly, it's way to early to get picky. At least it seems like many of us will get measurable and a possible widespread advisory event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I'd say Ray and Boston looks a lot better than Tolland. 1-3 seems reasonable for you now. Maybe..but I think more 2-4 or 3-5 in our area..I think BOS might be too warm for some of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Wow, just saw some of the 12z suite...its definitely looking like this is coming closer than forecast a day ago...Euro still kind of meh, but with the ensembles showing possible further NW track, we are probably not done trending this This is definitely looking like a green flag for everyone east of Tolland, CT ... mm hm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Maybe..but I think more 2-4 or 3-5 in our area..I think BOS might be too warm for some of this i don't think BOS has much temp problem at all. my area does for some of this - length of that TBD - but BOS is fine unless there's a dramatic shift in everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 This is definitely looking like a green flag for everyone east of Tolland, CT ... mm hm. Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Ok... It sounded like you were arguing that Ray's getting the futility record this season (ie flipping a 50th coin tail) has the same chance as Ray's getting the futility record next or any season (ie flipping 50 coin tails next or future season), and this is not correct. Right. After 99 heads in a row, the probability of the 100th flip being heads is 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Maybe..but I think more 2-4 or 3-5 in our area..I think BOS might be too warm for some of this I think the ensembles show this thing still has life in it. So I certainly wouldn't be surprised if we were looking at at least 3-6 eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 GEFS was as well. Always a red flag. red flag by nite weenies sleep tight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 i don't think BOS has much temp problem at all. my area does for some of this - length of that TBD - but BOS is fine unless there's a dramatic shift in everything lol he's just trolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I think 1-2" is more likely, though that's an improvement from zero. However, the tradeoff seems to be that the weekend cold snap gets shorter and less impressive - gfs had H85s 4-5C above earlier runs, and both Sat and Mon look less cold than in earlier forecasts. Also, the trough GYX calls for Sunday night would kill the radiational cooling, so no -20 for MBY frost pocket, probably no -10. Trading subzero temps for snow? Sign me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 i don't think BOS has much temp problem at all. my area does for some of this - length of that TBD - but BOS is fine unless there's a dramatic shift in everything I don't mean that they rain..I mean more they may have like a 32-33 wet snow esp since it's during daylight ..same issues they had in DC yestersay..Unless of course it comes down heavy enough..that's why I think areas west away fro CP might see more accumulate even with less qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Maybe..but I think more 2-4 or 3-5 in our area..I think BOS might be too warm for some of this How the hell can you be throwing amounts out right now?.. a few minor positive trends and were looking at a 6-12 widespread event. A few minor changes are were looking at the low getting trapped and negative tilted for an even greater event. IMO it's go big or go home I'd wait til 12z tomorrow before throwing out a 2-4" snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 lol he's just trolling He's staring at 12/26/10 and ****ting all over himself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I think the ensembles show this thing still has life in it. So I certainly wouldn't be surprised if we were looking at at least 3-6 eventually. Whoa! Homework FTL today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 i don't think BOS has much temp problem at all. my area does for some of this - length of that TBD - but BOS is fine unless there's a dramatic shift in everything Yeah, its plenty cold just off the deck...and seeing the winds go north like that leads me to believe it would actually probably be a tick colder at the sfc than the models want to show. It would probably start as a 33-34F paste for BOS and then tick below freezing during the heaviest stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I don't mean that they rain..I mean more they may have like a 32-33 wet snow esp since it's during daylight ..same issues they had in DC yestersay..Unless of course it comes down heavy enough..that's why I think areas west away fro CP might see more accumulate even with less qpf It's cold aloft so with a due north wind and heavy precip rates, they should be ok. Besides I could care less if I lose an inch or two to compaction, if its wet. Wet snow FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I think the ensembles show this thing still has life in it. So I certainly wouldn't be surprised if we were looking at at least 3-6 eventually. LOL...Ryan's more excited for Kevin for this event. Also...daytime event ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I don't mean that they rain..I mean more they may have like a 32-33 wet snow esp since it's during daylight ..same issues they had in DC yestersay..Unless of course it comes down heavy enough..that's why I think areas west away fro CP might see more accumulate even with less qpf i think it would be negligible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I don't mean that they rain..I mean more they may have like a 32-33 wet snow esp since it's during daylight ..same issues they had in DC yestersay..Unless of course it comes down heavy enough..that's why I think areas west away fro CP might see more accumulate even with less qpf NAM has this far more dynamic than yesterday's event. That's the issue with ptype. Also, with strong cold pressing in, snow is pretty likely for most the vast majority of the event. NAM has 360 wind at 18Z Sat for BOS...it will be 27-30regardless of what the model says now if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Temps around 700mb are pretty nice for snowgrowth too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It's cold aloft so with a due north wind and heavy precip rates, they should be ok. Besides I could care less if I lose an inch or two to compaction, if its wet. Wet snow FTW. We're at Messengers and Tips favorite time of year for snow..the higher sun angle can hurt in marginal situations..Just something I'm throwing out as an idea..hopefully it's not an issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 How the hell can you be throwing amounts out right now?.. a few minor positive trends and were looking at a 6-12 widespread event. A few minor changes are were looking at the low getting trapped and negative tilted for an even greater event. IMO it's go big or go home I'd wait til 12z tomorrow before throwing out a 2-4" snowfall. or go away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 or go away Or go eat dinner with your father at the dinner table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 We're at Messengers and Tips favorite time of year for snow..the higher sun angle can hurt in marginal situations..Just something I'm throwing out as an idea..hopefully it's not an issue It's still early February. Not an issue yet. There's a reaosn the biggest daytime storms in history in Boston all have occurred this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 We're at Messengers and Tips favorite time of year for snow..the higher sun angle can hurt in marginal situations..Just something I'm throwing out as an idea..hopefully it's not an issue It's Feb 9th, sun angle really isn't a big deal. That would be more of a concern a month from now, we don't live in Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It's still early February. Not an issue yet. There's a reaosn the biggest daytime storms in history in Boston all have occurred this month. I think it is an issue..The sun is as high in the sky as mid October now...And this isn't going to be anyones biggest snowstorm..Again, hopefully it's not an issue..but it's something to think about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Sun angle won't mean crap if BOS is actually putting 0.10" in the bucket every hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I think it is an issue..The sun is as high in the sky as mid October now...And this isn't going to be anyones biggest snowstorm..Again, hopefully it's not an issue..but it's something to think about More like early November. Your calendar knowledge ftl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 lol he's just trolling Honestly he's never been this bad...spent the whole day trolling. A little isn't bad, but honestly been going on for 8 hours. I think he's just testing the mods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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