NorEastermass128 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Preliminary QPF SE MA = 1.25"+ SE/NE CT-ORH-LWN-PSM and SE = 0.75"+ Stripe west of here (20 miles W) = 0.5"+ Nice run overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Wow just saw the 12z GFS.... looks pretty sweet for you guys from TOL-ORH eastward. I think this is the real deal... congrat's SNE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Too bad we're on the outside looking in ....Weird La Nina winter to have three decent hits (if this happens) in SNE and no major synoptic event for Upstate NY. hopefully we can pull of an inch or two of fluff on Friday night and Saturday morning as the 700mb northern stream shortwave approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 2 for you and 5 for me FTW lol ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 That's a big theta-e beast on the western side of the low. Strong frontogenesis there. That will be fun if someone gets in on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 To me anyway the big red flag even on the 18z is the lack of consistency and speed shift towards all the other models indicating it's catching up. Usually that's a dead giveaway it's having some issues. It didn't trend towards a stronger/nw surface low which also is a hint to me that the 12z solution was likely at least partially influenced by some form of feedback...which is what it looked like at the time. Very dynamic situation and there is one poorly sampled impulse coming across Mexico that may have some role in all of this, but NCEP went the right way in disregarding the NAM for the most part. nah...but in some respect the 18z run actually had more of a ceiling to be better than the 12z...the 12z just had a nice sharp shortwave in the right position to ring out very heavy precip for 6-12 hours. Compare the 18z 54 hour 500mb nam to the 12z 60 hour 500mb nam and you can see how much deeper the trough trended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 At 60...bubble of 10C near the center of the storm coming into NS. Interesting...should be an explosive little guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Not sure I agree with this... Season 2011-12: Ray's already flipped a coin tails 49 times, chance Ray gets that 50th tail is 50%. Season 2012-13: chance Ray flips a coin tails 50 times is 50%^50 = 0.0000000001% or something, you get the point Yes this makes my point. It can happen 10 years in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I like where Will is down to about HFD sit with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Nam at 18z is the same qpf wise here from 12z little over .50" qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 To me anyway the big red flag even on the 18z is the lack of consistency and speed shift towards all the other models indicating it's catching up. Usually that's a dead giveaway it's having some issues. It didn't trend towards a stronger/nw surface low which also is a hint to me that the 12z solution was likely at least partially influenced by some form of feedback...which is what it looked like at the time. Very dynamic situation and there is one poorly sampled impulse coming across Mexico that may have some role in all of this, but NCEP went the right way in disregarding the NAM for the most part. perhaps it is having issues in sampling over Mexico, and the southern shortwave is definitely more southeast on the 18Z... but an important driver here (and i believe this makes the difference from GFS) is the deeper-digging trough and stronger energy rounding the trough that manages to catch the southern shortwave and even prolong the event over eastern SNE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I like where Will down to about HFD sit with this one You'll get some...relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 With those thermal profiles on the NAM, clown maps will show 1 foot lollis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 You'll get some...relax. Huh? I mean IMO that area looks to be in best spot as of now..subject to change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Huh? I mean IMO that area looks to be in best spot as of now..subject to change I thought you were trying to troll in an indrect way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I thought you were trying to troll in an indrect way. he always is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 he always is. Defense mechanism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 euro qpf 00z and 12z hya: .51 / .69 bos: .29 / .23 Bdl: .17 / .15 pvd: .35 / .33 orh: .22 / .17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 EC ens QPF contours definitely a tick NW of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Huh? I mean IMO that area looks to be in best spot as of now..subject to change I'd say Ray and Boston looks a lot better than Tolland. 1-3 seems reasonable for you now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 EC ens QPF contours definitely a tick NW of the op. GEFS was as well. Always a red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 nah...but in some respect the 18z run actually had more of a ceiling to be better than the 12z...the 12z just had a nice sharp shortwave in the right position to ring out very heavy precip for 6-12 hours. Compare the 18z 54 hour 500mb nam to the 12z 60 hour 500mb nam and you can see how much deeper the trough trended. All I'm saying is it's hard to take a model seriously that couldn't place the key s/w center within 300 miles in a 12 hour forecast vs the 6h 18z. And it moved towards the others in that regard. I'd disregard both, just like NCEP for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Yes this makes my point. It can happen 10 years in a row. Ok... It sounded like you were arguing that Ray's getting the futility record this season (ie flipping a 50th coin tail) has the same chance as Ray's getting the futility record next or any season (ie flipping 50 coin tails next or future season), and this is not correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I'd say Ray and Boston looks a lot better than Tolland. 1-3 seems reasonable for you now. I was surprised at the 5.2 IJD got on the GFS. looks like 2 for you 5 for Kev 8 for me LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 The fact that the GFS and EURO ensembles are on and or Northwest of their respective ops is a red flag and leads me to believe they are both coming NW. The fact some GGEM ensembles show a 970 bomb shows the potential. I am also liking a nasty deform band to develop well NW of the low, kinda like helloween. Scott, what's your take on a possible deform band? I expect the GFS to look something like NAM or maybe even NW of it.. the classic NAM GFS swircheroo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 euro qpf 00z and 12z hya: .51 / .69 bos: .29 / .23 Bdl: .17 / .15 pvd: .35 / .33 orh: .22 / .17 That worries me a little bit...weird to see the one model that was furthest NW all along is now least intense. I guess I can't complain with 2" though given how this winter has gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Meh, this run is demonstrating the typical 18Z cycle vagaries. I almost wonder if the 00z run will come in with a hum-dinger. Slightly closer to the coast rise in initial s-stream system because ...hey, the west Atlantic height wall might be eroded to liberally - there's that to consider too.. 1) the interface beween the Gulf Stream and the cP air is a proverbial volcano throwing warning tremors in this particular set up. The "low" may in fact wind up (no pun intended...) favoring that axis instead of the seaward position as is modeled at this time; 2) that has a way of feeding back into more phasing when that happens because heights will fall by cyclogen physics, anyway, and here we have the nose of the digging N stream precariously knifing into the Del Marva to act potentailly as a right exit jet region to evacuate any UVM associated with any southern stream system that may or may not get caught up in that flow. A real easy correction would be for the southern stream initial system to end up tracking closer because of those two points, and if that happens ... There is just soo much to consider here its mind boggling - sufficed it is to say, that's a real real risky set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 From the NCEP heavy snow disc as of 358pm today.... .EASTERN NEW ENGLAND/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... MODELS SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SAT...REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUN MORNING. THE DEVELOPMENT IS COMPLEX WITH MOST OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOWING A DUAL LOW STRUCTURE AND DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MORE DEVELOPMENT/CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE NORTHWEST-MOST LOW AND WHETHER THE STRONGER DEVELOPMENT OCCURS WITH THE SOUTHEAST MOST LOW. THE PHASING OF NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES AND MAGNITUDE OF THE TROUGH COMING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL HELP DETERMINE WHICH CLUSTER IS MORE CORRECT. PROBABILITIES FOR 4 AND 8 INCHES ARE SHOWN IN CASE THE 12Z-18Z NAM/12Z GEFS MEAN IDEAS OF THE STRONGER/CLOSER IN LOW ARE MORE CORRECT AND MORE SNOW OCCURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NY/NEW ENGLAND. PRECIP TYPES REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS ALSO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES IN EASTERN LONG ISLAND TO CAPE COD. THE 12Z ECMWF NUDGE OF THE PRIMARY LOW FURTHER OFFSHORE KEEPS RISKS AS MODERATE FOR NOW. I can clearly see this is more then what was mentioned several days ago per the models..and someone in New England is gonna get some hefty qpf out of this event...I like the latest NAM and Euro models...HPC is saying hello to New England!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Wow, just saw some of the 12z suite...its definitely looking like this is coming closer than forecast a day ago...Euro still kind of meh, but with the ensembles showing possible further NW track, we are probably not done trending this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Warm air is never far away to be tapped this winter... At 60...bubble of 10C near the center of the storm coming into NS. Interesting...should be an explosive little guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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