CT Rain Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 at 39hr southern vm appears significantly less pronounced... good thing Not sure about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 NAM not as nice as 12z, but following every run of the NAM is asking for a bottle of Peptol Bismol to be downed by 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I may be looking at a different NAM than the rest of you. I see the surface low quite a bit further south at the same times versus the 12z. Definitely further SSW compared to 48/12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 Incoming! Wow is this thing on juice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Not sure nam will be as good as 12z...but at 48 it looks pretty good. Snowing 1"/hour near BOS if its cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 45hr surface reflection weaker, drier and a little more south... question is what happens with the more potent northern stream energy just swinging around the base of the trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 NAM not as nice as 12z, but following every run of the NAM is asking for a bottle of Peptol Bismol to be downed by 12z tomorrow. In the end at 6h it caved to the othe guidance in being faster. It then did the normal dampening out beyond about 12-18, but the move at 0h and 6/12h (from the 12z) is very telling. Toss the 12z NAM. Solutions may vary on either side of the envelope and of course things could change, but the 12z NAM had some serious issues and has zero support, not even from itself now. EDIT: We can always see further placement issues at init creep up, there's still one other little s/w that barely shows on the maps that does seem to be in play here...coming across TX/Mexico...but whether that has any potential influence who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Channel 4 and Channel 5 throwing out numbers: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 45hr surface reflection weaker, drier and a little more south... question is what happens with the more potent northern stream energy just swinging around the base of the trough and at hr 51... the question is answered... boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Looks the mean trough is deeper as a result of better northern stream energy...but more broad...so it's closer in but not as intense...the lead shortwave is weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Nice hit for easten areas... sort of sucks back here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Channel 4 and Channel 5 throwing out numbers: Meanwhile from channel 7. :arrowhead: Mostly cloudy with a few scattered snow showers possible through the morning. An inch or two of snow is possible. NW wind 10-20 mph. Highs in the mid 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bch2014 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Still not a bad run at all, >.5 inside of 495. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Thats a ton of qpf from the ct river south and east for sne, wow, congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 You guys realize the euro had 3 snowstorms for us Sat then Wed then Sat again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Meanwhile from channel 7. :arrowhead: Hey, now. That's from 6AM this morning. Bouchard is just getting to work now. Let's see if he bites...usually he's extremely conservative or overly generous. We'll see.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 Ok (Arnold) Mike. Gimme some 18z NAM snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 ya nam offers hope....MQE special? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 once again a longitude-dependent storm no question the better northern stream energy was critical in catching the slightly more southeast southern lead wave, and it prolongs the event too for eastern SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 The NAM is interesting in that the low se of ACK has strong east winds out ahead of it, with north winds over the main land. It's almost an inv trough like behavior that is squeezing out the precip over ern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 In this winter, I think everybody should be happy with these totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Nice hit for easten areas... sort of sucks back here. 2 for you and 5 for me FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Going home for the weekend, sure could use a 50mi push west on that NAM run. Or any run for that matter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 The trend of really digging that northern stream is nice. This particular run the shortwave was a bit too broad to get really get the low to crank a bit closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Too bad we're on the outside looking in ....Weird La Nina winter to have three decent hits (if this happens) in SNE and no major synoptic event for Upstate NY. Looks the mean trough is deeper as a result of better northern stream energy...but more broad...so it's closer in but not as intense...the lead shortwave is weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Hey, now. That's from 6AM this morning. Bouchard is just getting to work now. Let's see if he bites...usually he's extremely conservative or overly generous. We'll see.... Fair enough. I suspect he will bite. That was also from dryer who is a traditional warminsta. 12z gfs bufkit gave ORH 4.0" 12z nam bufkit gave ORH 9.9" 12z gfs bufkit gave BOS 1.9" (warm) 12z nam bufkit gave BOS 12.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 qpf > 1.25" in parts of southeast MA up to boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Looks the mean trough is deeper as a result of better northern stream energy...but more broad...so it's closer in but not as intense...the lead shortwave is weaker. To me anyway the big red flag even on the 18z is the lack of consistency and speed shift towards all the other models indicating it's catching up. Usually that's a dead giveaway it's having some issues. It didn't trend towards a stronger/nw surface low which also is a hint to me that the 12z solution was likely at least partially influenced by some form of feedback...which is what it looked like at the time. Very dynamic situation and there is one poorly sampled impulse coming across Mexico that may have some role in all of this, but NCEP went the right way in disregarding the NAM for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I honestly would love see a good swath of 4-8 here in Augusta Maine..but hey what ever happens...nice to something on the boards..three storms here so far since Halloween...hoping February will be better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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