Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 By 12-18 the NAM dampens out the changes, kind of typical. The adjustements from the 12z usually fade towards 12h on the offhour runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 All the 3, NAM, GFS and UK' appear to have convective contamination going on. They have elongated lows that pinpoint a center out over a giant convective-related QPF explosion. Remove that, there's your NW adjustment... Will that happen? Could... But, sometimes convective contamination works out. It's tough to know when to ingore it or not. One thing that is interesting is that the wave that just exited the MA is advecting sub 0C 850mb air out over the Gulf Stream. Natively ...that would modify in time, but in this case there isn't enough "in time" - N stream digs a tad and times well with a vestigial s stream impulse riding up off the lower MA, and together they lift a potent jet max over the top of that sfc-850mb enhanced baroclinic axis... I don't think the strung out/enlongated look is due to convective feedback, though. It appears to me that enlongated look is due to models keeping both shortwaves separately. In essence you're lowering pressures over a large area and not a consolidated bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Man from the sounds of the euro ens..it very well be time for all of to remove our clothes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I don't think the strung out/enlongated look is due to convective feedback, though. It appears to me that enlongated look is due to models keeping both shortwaves separately. In essence you're lowering pressures over a large area and not a consolidated bomb. Right, it's not like the QPF is driving the 5h feature to appear in a true feedback loop, instead it's a distinct and plottable s/w that drives the moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Man from the sounds of the euro ens..it very well be time for all of to remove our clothes The Euro? It wasn't all that special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 The Euro? It wasn't all that special. How scary is it, that he removes clothes for 1-3"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 How scary is it, that he removes clothes for 1-3"? Euro to me is good for far eastern areas but probably sucks back here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 How scary is it, that he removes clothes for 1-3"? There's so many things I could say here that would belong in the banter thread..... The NAM I think is moving off towards the consensus? I can only see through 15, just extrapolating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I don't think the strung out/enlongated look is due to convective feedback, though. It appears to me that enlongated look is due to models keeping both shortwaves separately. In essence you're lowering pressures over a large area and not a consolidated bomb. You could very well be right there - just sayin' But also, that QPF output out there looks a bit excessive. if so, it's over doing convection - if so, leads that feedback. Could be both aspect going on. Pretty much impossible to unravel what is what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 How scary is it, that he removes clothes for 1-3"? doesn't his wife do the same, though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 doesn't his wife do the same, though? LOL, zing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Actually around 18...changes dampen out, the speed jump thru the first few panels is mitigated and it's keeping a distinct s/w further sw. This run could induce some extension from some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
860Wx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 doesn't his wife do the same, though? L.O.L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 thru 27hrs looks pretty damn close to 12Z at 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 Just looking at the ETA model and it took a sizable jump NW comparing the 57h and 54h progs on the 9z and 15z runs. Looks liek the latest 15z run has a 994 low SE of the BM. The previous run had a 998 low about 30mi further SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 NAM looks better so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Nam might be even better then 12z im glad im not Kevins neighbor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Love the comma head look to this, but whether it's over the whales or Wilmington is another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 doesn't his wife do the same, though? Cold Miser would have laughed at that. - Mrs. Cold Miser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Cold Miser would have laughed at that. - Mrs. Cold Miser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 1048 mb high...that's awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Just looked at the 12z runs, and I must say I'm pumped to read through the last 10 pages of this thread...man finally something to track! 12z nam was 6-8" here...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Has Blizz called for lollies to 10 yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Close to wsw being issued for all of Sne by morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Coastal areas with precip problems again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 thru 27hrs looks pretty damn close to 12Z at 500mb Looks exactly the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 At 39, that southern stream vort is almost gone...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I may be looking at a different NAM than the rest of you. I see the surface low quite a bit further south at the same times versus the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Hoping that a lot of folks from DC-ME can get some from this storm. It'll be good for the soul. Interesting 'L' shaped isobar configuration at 42...hopefully that doesn't rob the best moisture to the E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 at 39hr southern vm appears significantly less pronounced... good thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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