Tropopause_Fold Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Nice sat going forward, and yesterday's vort that exited the ma (that the NAM handled beautifully) is a thing of beauty the NAM was not great. it didn't get precip onto the Cape until about 12 hours til go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 the NAM was not great. it didn't get precip onto the Cape until about 12 hours til go time. It handled the precip out this way perfectly, radar was almost a perfect reflection of qpf, yes it was delayed for the cape but nailed it to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Ray, serious question and please dont take anything out of it, other than what I am asking........do you enjoy the snow? Do you ski or sled, walk in it while its falling, stomach turn to knots waiting for the first flakes in the porch light? Is it about the records, and tracking or is it about enjoying it while its happening and getting out in it doing things while its on the ground. I was just curious. I'm not sure what he does out in the snow... but he DOES love snow. I just think that he wants to either go big, or not have anything. ...He likes to jackpot, and doesn't care if he gets under 4", it's like he doesn't want to be bothered with "nuisance snows." He's a huge IMBY weenie, doesn't give to $hits about GC, CC, VT/NH, or anyplace else that might get more snow than him. It's all good though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I need MPM bemoaning our qpf out here. This part of GC could certainly stand to see this move 50-75 NW and I'll leave that possibility on the table until tomorrow. I don't know where MPM is at the moment, so I'll be the one to state my worries about QPF out here... I'd love to see this thing come west a ton... Ski season has sucked in terms of lift ticket purchases, I think mostly due to the "backyard effect." Even if we don't get much, anything will be gravy, and if it brings people from the coastal tropics up north to ski, that's great for business... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It handled the precip out this way perfectly, radar was almost a perfect reflection of qpf, yes it was delayed for the cape but nailed it to the west. it was OK inside of 24 hours. horrendous outside of that window. i don't know why, but that's been its thing this winter. it sucked with that storm yesterday/last night. iirc, there were runs right up until 30-36 hours out that didn't get any precip into NNJ...none along the S coast of CT/RI/MA etc. some weren't even close...like kept the precip 75 miles south of the islands. i think it snowed in SE CT and up into RI and parts of SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Well how it tries to bomb out that low in a compact manner. Maybe the location isn't entirely correct, but it may have the idea. What gives me some pause, is the interaction of the southern vort, but I think if you take a consensus of what we have now..it may be a good estimate. I think there is room for some improvement, but we do not want the nrn vortmax to weaken or become less compact and strung out. scott you had mentioned you just (paraphrasing) wish the s. stream would go away or dissapear i mean if we can for the context of this hypoth. situation say the n. stream will stay impressive on modeling .....what do we want the S. stream to do.....1..be modeled weaker...2.and or faster..(to get the f outta the way) ...3..and or possibly phase perfectly. i mean can the first two of these possibilities just let the n. stream do it's thing.....and then the last possibiilty ....perfect amplification ahead drawing S stream more northward into perfect phase or am i in left fieled. just wondering what we should be hoping for with s. stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 Let's not let this thread degenerate into picking which model is/will better. All have there strengths and weaknesses We still don't have a full handle on the northern piece of energy with this upcoming potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Ray, serious question and please dont take anything out of it, other than what I am asking........do you enjoy the snow? Do you ski or sled, walk in it while its falling, stomach turn to knots waiting for the first flakes in the porch light? Is it about the records, and tracking or is it about enjoying it while its happening and getting out in it doing things while its on the ground. I was just curious. I enjoy tracking it and watching it fall....and the appearence of a deep, especially freshly fallen snowpack....the emotion it evokes from me makes me feel like a child again. But no, I don't participate in winter sports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I love the cup is half empty vibe just as much as the next embittered guy but ...heh, the 200 mile shift west of the UKMET also more intense, should be just as important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I enjoy tracking it and watching it fall....and the appearence of a deep, especially freshly fallen snowpack....the emotion it evokes from me makes me feel like a child again. But no, I don't participate in any sports as I am not athletically inclined Well i would consider weightlifting as being somewhat athletic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 i thought the ukie shifted east from last nite's run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 it was OK inside of 24 hours. horrendous outside of that window. i don't know why, but that's been its thing this winter. it sucked with that storm yesterday/last night. iirc, there were runs right up until 30-36 hours out that didn't get any precip into NNJ...none along the S coast of CT/RI/MA etc. some weren't even close...like kept the precip 75 miles south of the islands. i think it snowed in SE CT and up into RI and parts of SE MA. Nam was terrible like you said yesterday's 12z was well se of ack with measurable. Bad run. It got it right out by LL by default only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 i thought the ukie shifted east from last nite's run? it shifted around some but overall is pretty similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 scott you had mentioned you just (paraphrasing) wish the s. stream would go away or dissapear i mean if we can for the context of this hypoth. situation say the n. stream will stay impressive on modeling .....what do we want the S. stream to do.....1..be modeled weaker...2.and or faster..(to get the f outta the way) ...3..and or possibly phase perfectly. i mean can the first two of these possibilities just let the n. stream do it's thing.....and then the last possibiilty ....perfect amplification ahead drawing S stream more northward into perfect phase or am i in left fieled. just wondering what we should be hoping for with s. stream Well it would be nice to phase, but that runs the risk of bringing it over the Cape, and I also don't see that in the cards right now. I don't think it's as important for it to be faster as it is, weaker. IMO, it won't get weaker, so hopefully it just stays as is currently modeled. It would be nice if it did, but I think it probably holds steady. I think if the nrn stream energy came in a little stronger, it might crush or boot out the srn stuff a little quicker. We still would have a low develop in response well se, but a stronger s/w taps into the gulf stream baroclinic zone left over. That's what the GEFS are doing and really blow up the nw side of the low...basically the comma head. This should have a beast of a comma head and if someone gets into that, it will be wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Well i would consider weightlifting as being somewhat athletic Not really....being in shape and poccessing athletic ability are two entirely diff. things. I can lift heavy weight.....I have zero coordination, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Not really....being in shape and poccessing athletic ability are two entirely diff. things. I can lift heavy weight.....I have zero coordination, though. Join the club. I guess we were built for slavery and that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 there are always some weenie individual ggem ens members...but man...some of those would be insane...sub 970s just e of the BM. one as low as 962. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Join the club. I guess we were built for slavery and that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 there are always some weenie individual ggem ens members...but man...some of those would be insane...sub 970s just e of the BM. one as low as 962. lol. Pretty good cluster there, although you'd expect that 60 hrs out I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
860Wx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 whelp time to see what the NAM does I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 This isn't a case where' the later southern s/w is coming ashore in the Baja or off the Pac. It's in Idaho at 12z. It's been fairly well sampled. It will no doubt be better analyzed as it comes out of the Rockies tonight and in the morning, but we are unlikely to see major shifts, JMHO in speed. agree, and i think this is a good thing... we have much less chance of a complete whiff as has happened with multiple D4+ threats earlier this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 45 "delightful" degrees at BOS. 78 years ago today it was -18. Today's the anniversary of that date...will start a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Ray doesn't realize that reaching or not reaching futility has 0 effect on the following season. eg: Why not futility twice? Equal chances year to year but low probability in either year. Not sure I agree with this... Season 2011-12: Ray's already flipped a coin tails 49 times, chance Ray gets that 50th tail is 50%. Season 2012-13: chance Ray flips a coin tails 50 times is 50%^50 = 0.0000000001% or something, you get the point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 15z SREF looks way better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 15z SREF looks way better SREF's have had as many issues as the NAM this season, esp at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Not sure it means much but given the early images my bet is the 18z nam comes in more amped than the previous run...higher heights over the SE and the northern shortwave is digging in further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 15z SREF looks way better yeah they are definitely juicier...they were pretty skimpy earlier on. they've got some good probs now for higher totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 whelp time to see what the NAM does I guess 18z NAM is faster already at 6hrs with that initial s/w in the rockies...GFS was much faster than the NAM, so you can probably figure out which way the 18z NAM is going to go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Euro ensembles are a bit nw of the op fwiw. You can see how the two separate pieces of energy at 500mb are having an effect on the low orientation because it kind of looks like an "L", but it does like the nrn part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 it shifted around some but overall is pretty similar ... ... All the 3, NAM, GFS and UK' appear to have convective contamination going on. They have elongated lows that pinpoint a center out over a giant convective-related QPF explosion. Remove that, there's your NW adjustment... Will that happen? Could... But, sometimes convective contamination works out. It's tough to know when to ingore it or not. One thing that is interesting is that the wave that just exited the MA is advecting sub 0C 850mb air out over the Gulf Stream. Natively ...that would modify in time, but in this case there isn't enough "in time" - N stream digs a tad and times well with a vestigial s stream impulse riding up off the lower MA, and together they lift a potent jet max over the top of that sfc-850mb enhanced baroclinic axis... It's not a shocker the low booms as it passes because of that...but where!? If the N stream digs about a half an erg in this deal than it foist that captured(ing) low more NW.... There is also a subtlety there that may not be as readily observed; the n stream digging has different character during the fist 30 hours of that action... Originally, the SPV came on down in tact and that actually caused more of a damping influence on the field - too much gradient. As is exemplified in these last couple of NAM runs ... the flow is a little more relaxed in the southern semi-circle of the n stream trough axis.. This causes more S/W wind energy to be expressed --> better DPVA thus runs up just SE of the LI. Heh, playing with absolute gas and matches with that. It'll be interesting to see how this thing evolves. Whatever happens between hour 48 and 60 .. man is that one mother f deep SPV that is generated over Maine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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