Chrisrotary12 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 This isn't a case where' the later southern s/w is coming ashore in the Baja or off the Pac. It's in Idaho at 12z. It's been fairly well sampled. It will no doubt be better analyzed as it comes out of the Rockies tonight and in the morning, but we are unlikely to see major shifts, JMHO in speed. I noticed this earlier. Everything had it initializing along the Idaho/Montana border. But looking at WV, it appears to me that it is clearly in the middle of Montana not the Idaho/Montana border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 2" of fluff it is.....the winter of verifiying against my wishes continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Im not buying this southern stream robbing the moisture that some of you are spewing out. This is still better than it looked a day or so ago. in nyc thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 The king abdicated this run. LOL Could be right, but I don't think it's the same old Euro we used to know and love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 in nyc thread It's not that it's robbing moisture, it's interferring with the ability of the northern system to develop and wind up in time. We're not talking about a situation where we sometimes see these things coming in off the Baja, still see a nice system develop off the Delmarva but have a ragged, crappy precip pattern (ie a dry slot in the mid levels associated with a s/w passing east). This is competing s/w's that trigger or try to trigger two systems that interfere with the development of one another. In this case the SE system just has more moisture to work with, but even the NAM has two independent lobes of loads of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Not being a weenie here... but I could see a TOL/HFD sucker hole with that initial batch falling apart. LOL, Dec 26 2010 has scarred you for life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I like the look of this thing still. Many of the GFS ensemble members are quite amped up with good hits. I think we could still see this trend west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 2" of fluff it is.....the winter of verifiying against my wishes continues. You don't want 2"..lol. I wouldn't get all down right now. Weenies are acting like they were supposed to get 5-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Something big is brewing in the later days on today's Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 messenger did that happen last year with that system that gave DC to SNE a snow blitz that wasn't nailed down to that evening. the thing was more impressive shock shock and awe snow bomb for 4 hours after midnite . that had 1 piece of energy escape SE and then the last was very close to missing us but it just crushed MASS with like 15 inches in milford in like 5 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 You don't want 2"..lol. I wouldn't get all down right now. Weenies are acting like they were supposed to get 5-10". No, but whatever.....all set with 1-3", but I'll live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I like the look of this thing still. Many of the GFS ensemble members are quite amped up with good hits. I think we could still see this trend west. i have noticed that when ryan posts optomistically good things tend to happen more than not. very good met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I need MPM bemoaning our qpf out here. This part of GC could certainly stand to see this move 50-75 NW and I'll leave that possibility on the table until tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 i have noticed that when ryan posts optomistically good things tend to happen more than not. very good met. Thanks. I do see an opportunity for this to be a more sizable storm. A lot of times there's really not much room for improvement but there certainly is this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I like the look of this thing still. Many of the GFS ensemble members are quite amped up with good hits. I think we could still see this trend west. As long as the nrn stream energy is strong enough, it won't really matter what the srn stream system does. I mean it will to a point, but if the nrn stream energy is strong enough, it will just cause a compact but powerful low to form with a tight, but potent comma head. Look at the ensembles to see what I mean. It may mean we have a sharp gradient and a screw job for some way out west, but the low could be a tight powerhouse. If the nrn stream energy is modeled weaker, or the srn stream energy is a little strong and further east, the combo may mean more of a weaker and broad area of lighter QPF. But for now, get your pom-poms and cheer on the nrn stream, because we'll need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It's coming. That's my catchphrase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 No, but whatever.....all set with 1-3", but I'll live. Ray, serious question and please dont take anything out of it, other than what I am asking........do you enjoy the snow? Do you ski or sled, walk in it while its falling, stomach turn to knots waiting for the first flakes in the porch light? Is it about the records, and tracking or is it about enjoying it while its happening and getting out in it doing things while its on the ground. I was just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 i have noticed that when ryan posts optomistically good things tend to happen more than not. very good met. Yup, the healthy skeptics among us listen when Ryan offers some morsels of hope. I prefer that to over exubarance followed by bitter disappointment. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 As long as the nrn stream energy is strong enough, it won't really matter what the srn stream system does. I mean it will to a point, but if the nrn stream energy is strong enough, it will just cause a compact but powerful low to form with a tight, but potent comma head. Look at the ensembles to see what I mean. It may mean we have a sharp gradient and a screw job for some way out west, but the low could be a tight powerhouse. If the nrn stream energy is modeled weaker, or the srn stream energy is a little strong and further east, the combo may mean more of a weaker and broad area of lighter QPF. But for now, get your pom-poms and cheer on the nrn stream, because we'll need it. Well, the NAM does handle the compact ones better...interesting to see the whether or not the 18z backs off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 <p> Thanks. I do see an opportunity for this to be a more sizable storm. A lot of times there's really not much room for improvement but there certainly is this time. Precisely, should be an interesting evolution tomorrow. Either way Ray is calling folks Chief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 OT but the model trends of the past few days DO confirm the different nature of this winter perhaps. Keep hope alive. I think the mega torches have lower probability moving forward relative to climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 i have noticed that when ryan posts optomistically good things tend to happen more than not. very good met. yup, the october storm was a good example Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Well, the NAM does handle the compact ones better...interesting to see the whether or not the 18z backs off. I think this is like 70/30 in favor of holding or trending a bit better of the consensus right now. Of course I say this without seeing the euro ensembles. I'm going back and forth with the pros and cons, but I actually thought about the NAM like you did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 i have noticed that when ryan posts optomistically good things tend to happen more than not. very good met. I agree, good sign when Ryan's optimistic, looks like a nice little weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Canadian ensembles are a bit better than 00z, but still pretty far offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I think this is like 70/30 in favor of holding or trending a bit better of the consensus right now. Of course I say this without seeing the euro ensembles. I'm going back and forth with the pros and cons, but I actually thought about the NAM like you did. What do you mean, it's handling of the compact ones... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Not being a weenie here... but I could see a TOL/HFD sucker hole with that initial batch falling apart. i agree there could be a screw zone. tough to say where that would be...but might see a leg of precip running out into W NE and then another taking hold over E zones. who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Nice sat going forward, and yesterday's vort that exited the ma (that the NAM handled beautifully) is a thing of beauty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 wow LL look at that bomb ...imagine that 500 miles WSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 What do you mean, it's handling of the compact ones... Well how it tries to bomb out that low in a compact manner. Maybe the location isn't entirely correct, but it may have the idea. What gives me some pause, is the interaction of the southern vort, but I think if you take a consensus of what we have now..it may be a good estimate. I think there is room for some improvement, but we do not want the nrn vortmax to weaken or become less compact and strung out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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