N. OF PIKE Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It's coming. ....closer but not good enough ....near miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Nice..I think we can now lock in a 2-4/maybe 3-5 inch snowstorm for all of us this weekend. You are..but the others aren't nearly as cautious as you..that's the difference. Because caution has been winning all season. I think they all are the same too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 for those looking for qpf... looks like .5 just to the canal .25 just west of BOS SW to near tol 3-6 sounds great, we can work on that and hope for more. sweet then howling Arctic winds with squalls, will actually feel like winter for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Because caution has been winning all season. I think they all are the same too. And last winter it lost each and every time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 ....closer but not good enough ....near miss depends on what you are looking for Pickles, Road Trip South to SE SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It's really close to a big hit if that stupid piece of srn energy would slow down or just disappear. That's a thorn in our side..a little more apparent on this run, but the outcome isn't that different from 00z, as the nrn stream energy actually was better looking. We just need that to continue, but we don't want the southern stream vort to go out to sea and rob of us moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 And last winter it lost each and every time Wasn't like that last year, only in the beginning when you were barking about the cold coming in by Thanksgiving and I had to correct you again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Looks like Ray gets his 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It's really close to a big hit if that stupid piece of srn energy would slow down or just disappear. That's a thorn in our side..a little more apparent on this run, but the outcome isn't that different from 00z, as the nrn stream energy actually was better looking. We just need that to continue, but we don't want the southern stream vort to go out to sea and rob of us moisture. Yea no one should jump off the Tobin for this, it is what it is. a nice 3-6 SNE special followed by the coldest air of the season with wind. Nice couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 depends on what you are looking for Pickles, Road Trip South to SE SNE? ill go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 for those looking for qpf... looks like .5 just to the canal .25 just west of BOS SW to near tol Thanks, NAM needs to be totally disregarded at this point. We can hope there's less interaction and maybe the 0z tonight will pull more data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It's really close to a big hit if that stupid piece of srn energy would slow down or just disappear. That's a thorn in our side..a little more apparent on this run, but the outcome isn't that different from 00z, as the nrn stream energy actually was better looking. We just need that to continue, but we don't want the southern stream vort to go out to sea and rob of us moisture. yeah minor details aside, it's pretty similar to 00z. it had a good look and then as you mentioned kind of crapped the bed there. either way. nice weekend of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Wasn't like that last year, only in the beginning when you were barking about the cold coming in by Thanksgiving and I had to correct you again. Yeah..you were very careful about calling for big amounts last winter. i distinctly recall it. No biggie. So what is you call for this one? 2-4 for all excecpt coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Yea no one should jump off the Tobin for this, it is what it is. a nice 3-6 SNE special followed by the coldest air of the season with wind. Nice couple of days. 3-6" might be pushing it for now, but it has the potential in parts of ern areas. There is probably going to be a sharp gradient. There are still some key players that will have a say in this. 50 miles may mean 9" or 1.9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It's really close to a big hit if that stupid piece of srn energy would slow down or just disappear. That's a thorn in our side..a little more apparent on this run, but the outcome isn't that different from 00z, as the nrn stream energy actually was better looking. We just need that to continue, but we don't want the southern stream vort to go out to sea and rob of us moisture. Yeah Euro shows what could go wrong. Though QPF fields look ok for eastern areas that setup is pretty crappy with a moisture robber just offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Thanks, NAM needs to be totally disregarded at this point. We can hope there's less interaction and maybe the 0z tonight will pull more data. I don't expect the NAM to verify unless the N stream becomes much more dominant. It shows the outcome of a very dominant N stream which overwhelms the southern stream impulse. It's an outlier for sure compared to the rest of the 12z suite but it looks like a lot of those 12z GFS Ensemble members so while I don't expect it, I wouldn't be totally shocked if it happens. Having said that I think 2-5" generally for the region seems most likely at this point with some good upside if things break right. I hope everyone is pleased even with a nice little event like this since even 24 hrs ago this looked like about a 50/50 shot of being almost a complete whiff versus a minor 1-3" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Words from NCEP model discussion...just sharing.. .ERN CANADA ENERGY REACHING NEW ENGLAND BY SUN... PREFERENCE: 06Z GEFS MEAN/00Z ECMWF BLEND BY SAT NIGHT-SUN THE NAM BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED THAN MOST OTHER GUIDANCE WITH TROFFING OVER THE NORTHEAST... ASIDE FROM THE UKMET BEING AT LEAST AS AMPLIFIED OVER SOME AREAS. ON SUN THE NAM TRACKS ITS CLOSED LOW CENTER FARTHER SWD THAN CONSENSUS INCLUDING THE UKMET. IN CONTRAST THE GFS BECOMES A FLAT OUTLIER WITH NERN CONUS FLOW BY SUN DUE TO A MORE AMPLIFIED HANDLING OF UPSTREAM ENERGY ROUNDING THE WRN CANADA RIDGE. BY LATE SUN THE 00Z ECMWF MEAN SUGGESTS THE CLOSED LOW COULD TRACK A LITTLE NWD OF THE OPERATIONAL RUN... SO A BLEND OF THE 06Z GEFS MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF PROVIDES A REASONABLE ACCOUNT FOR WHAT SPREAD EXISTS AMONG THE MOST AGREEABLE CLUSTER OF SOLNS. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. ...TROF AMPLIFYING INTO THE EAST FRI-SAT... ...ROCKIES-SRN TIER SHRTWV THU-FRI NIGHT... ...SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN ATLC SAT... PREFERENCE: GFS/06Z GEFS MEAN/00Z ECMWF COMPROMISE GUIDANCE CLUSTERS FAIRLY WELL WITH OTHER SOLNS FOR THE SHRTWV PROGRESSING FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE SRN TIER STATES AND INTO THE ATLC. MEANWHILE THE NAM IS IN THE STRONGER HALF OF GUIDANCE WITH TRAILING FLOW INTO THE AMPLIFYING ERN CONUS TROF. EVEN WITH RELATIVELY SUBTLE DETAIL DIFFS FOR THE CORE/ERN SIDE OF THE TROF ALOFT... FROM MID-SAT INTO EARLY SUN THE NAM IS ON THE DEEP/WRN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE WITH THE SFC LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST. BY LATE SAT THE 12Z GFS APPEARS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE WITH A SECOND SFC CENTER TO THE E OF THE WAVE JUST OFF THE E COAST GIVEN ASSOC WITH A PRONOUNCED QPF MAXIMUM... BUT THE UKMET SHOWS A SIMILAR EVOLUTION WITH AN EVEN STRONGER ERN CENTER AND OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWS AT LEAST A WEAKER HINT OF SUCH AN EVOLUTION. OVERALL PREFER A COMPROMISE AMONG THE GFS/06Z GEFS MEAN/00Z ECMWF TO REPRESENT THE MOST AGREEABLE IDEAS OF LATEST GUIDANCE AND INCORPORATE CONTINUED DETAIL UNCERTAINTIES. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 a near miss for our "promised period" this season due to some pos southern stream energy f'n things up seems about right for this winter. 1-2 region wide 2-4 for eastern mass ...perhaps 3-6 cape/islands will need to be watched as many have mentioned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 3-6" might be pushing it for now, but it has the potential in parts of ern areas. There is probably going to be a sharp gradient. There are still some key players that will have a say in this. 50 miles may mean 9" or 1.9". Blend of models and ENS seem to indicate .25 to .5 QPF seems to be on track. Obviously things change but with the available moisture and lift that as minimum seems likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 This isn't a case where' the later southern s/w is coming ashore in the Baja or off the Pac. It's in Idaho at 12z. It's been fairly well sampled. It will no doubt be better analyzed as it comes out of the Rockies tonight and in the morning, but we are unlikely to see major shifts, JMHO in speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 a near miss for our "promised period" this season due to some pos southern stream energy f'n things up seems about right for this winter. 1-2 region wide 2-4 for eastern mass ...perhaps 3-6 cape/islands will need to be watched as many have mentioned You need to bump all those totals 75 miles west or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 3-6" might be pushing it for now, but it has the potential in parts of ern areas. There is probably going to be a sharp gradient. There are still some key players that will have a say in this. 50 miles may mean 9" or 1.9". Gradient may wind up being a little strange with northern stream energy producing some QPF to the west... you can see models developing precip 00z-12z Saturday back west across NJ/NYC metro ahead of northern stream trough. May wind up seeing an odd sucker hole in the middle as the southern stream vort starts to go to town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 This isn't a case where' the later southern s/w is coming ashore in the Baja or off the Pac. It's in Idaho at 12z. It's been fairly well sampled. It will no doubt be better analyzed as it comes out of the Rockies tonight and in the morning, but we are unlikely to see major shifts, JMHO in speed. I'd like to see the northern stream crush that southern piece to shreds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Euro's going to give us a d6 snowstorm it seems. The torch idea is losing steam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Yeah..you were very careful about calling for big amounts last winter. i distinctly recall it. No biggie. So what is you call for this one? 2-4 for all excecpt coast? LOL, you are something else. I'd say it has a 1-3 look for you right now. Maybe 2-5 for BOS and someone to the south might get a bit more, but a small shift either way will have a big say as to what will happen. You have to understand, when things are quesitonable and a small difference will have an affect on snow amounts, it's not good to throw weenie amounts out and then backtrack. You look bad when that happens. I know this could be good, but there are things are not perfect and we went over them. I do like seeing how the western side of this low may have some heavier elements of precip. There is really strong frontogenesis that promotes the heavy precip. Bring that west, and then we're talking. However, we've been fooked before by the southern vort trying to pull this out last minute and robbing us of the low. It's a real interesting setuo because 50 miles means a hell of a lot here. Trying to figure that out when the main players are 2000 miles away is not easy. Like i said, the 00z runs will have the data in a better sampled area so lets hope it doesn't scoot east. The positve thing from saving us, is how the nrn stream energy came in better at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I'd like to see the northern stream crush that southern piece to shreds. It's worth noting the NAM sped up the southern s/w in a massive way from the 0z run. It was clueless on the 0z. The GFS wasn't as bad, but did speed it up slightly. The net result was somewhat less interference. We'll have to see how the 18z models handle it...the jump may represent some better coverage in the data at this init versus western Canada and we don't see much of an adjustment or it could be part of a trend. The Euro is rarely that much in error with features like this over mostly data rich areas...so it's hard to believe we lose the interference singal entirely...but who knows. Thing as of now we look fine, and overall in consensus there was a slightly better trend even if we discount the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Gradient may wind up being a little strange with northern stream energy producing some QPF to the west... you can see models developing precip 00z-12z Saturday back west across NJ/NYC metro ahead of northern stream trough. May wind up seeing an odd sucker hole in the middle as the southern stream vort starts to go to town. Sometimes you get that initial batch of precip forming west and then a sucker hole before the low develops and pivots precip west again, only further north. Either way, hopefully the ensembles are jsut as nice or nicer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Sometimes you get that initial batch of precip forming west and then a sucker hole before the low develops and pivots precip west again, only further north. Either way, hopefully the ensembles are jsut as nice or nicer. Not being a weenie here... but I could see a TOL/HFD sucker hole with that initial batch falling apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Every other season on record has failed to reach it, so that is a pretty astute observation on you part.....while you're at it, would you mind filling in for Will and calculating my odds in any given year of beating the 127.5" that '96 laid down...thnx, chief. lol well that was referencing this season....your record of futility has always been a long shot this year IMO. you seem to be routing for it like if it doesn't happen you somehow are screwed again. you seem grumpy today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Ray doesn't realize that reaching or not reaching futility has 0 effect on the following season. eg: Why not futility twice? Equal chances year to year but low probability in either year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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