40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 GFS and UK are nuisance....GEM probably was, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 yeah even on the op it would be a nasty afternoon/evening. we'll see. i'm not a fan of seeing the ukmet blow up that offshore low given how every piece of guidance does try and develop it to some extent. looked like the ec ens had a little kink to the east too....hopefully the GFS is on the right path here though. Yeah all the models including the GEFS do have dual lows, so obviosuly you don't want the srn wave to take over. We'll probably have an idea with the EC coming out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It's unreal how this winter started out west and nw of me with the halloweenie event, then n of me, and now seemingly south and se of me for the last couple of weeks. Now it will see to it that I pull a 2-spot in order to place my futility mark in great peril. Christ. lol ur futility mark has always been in great peril IMO. it possible but a long shot and yes i know you were joking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Still seems like Scooter thinks many see nothing but snow showers When did he say that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It usually handles really tight lows best because they're more mesoscale in nature and that is where it trumps globals....the Jan 12 blizzard was a perfect example. Alot of us went ballz-to-wallz with the NAM despite that all globals, including the EURO, were relatively meh. The thing is if the systems time out a little better we'd have the s/w more NW to SSE stacked, and we could see the NAM situation play out. But it looks suspect to me as more than any other model it tends to make pretty wild adjustments in s/w speed at this range whereas the GFS et al tend to shift more subtly. The solutions aren't terribly far off and it's 2 days away. I just don't think we see a mega QPF jackpot over us and one 800 miles SSE with the second system...we either see the whole thing consolidate better, or we don't. Euro is usually much less prone to the wild swings, I expect it'll help clear the air and point us in the right direction. The UK/GFS/GEFS/NAM, presumably the GGEM are all decent hits, and right now that's all that matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 gfs ens mean would be a rain to hvy wet snow bomb out here...with full on N gales. everything has that southern vort initiating dual LPs...just a matter of which ends up more dominant at this point. agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Still seems like Scooter thinks many see nothing but snow showers Just anyone west of IJD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 When did he say that? Just by saying that folks shouldn't be getting excited about geeting snow yet. It's his way of saying he's not big on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Yeah that 0.4 line is just NW of the canal I think. So my point is that total qpf should be pretty decent as it should be going pretty good from about 15-18Z and beyond for awhile. I mean by 12Z things are getting going with steady qpf. yeah total ending 72 hr is .5 just nw of the canal...the .75 contour doesn't quite touch CHH....with the .25" line running from SE NH SW across C MA into W CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 ur futility mark has always been in great peril IMO. it possible but a long shot and yes i know you were joking Every other season on record has failed to reach it, so that is a pretty astute observation on you part.....while you're at it, would you mind filling in for Will and calculating my odds in any given year of beating the 127.5" that '96 laid down...thnx, chief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 When did he say that? Trolling FTL. The only thing I'm watching for is how the srn stream stuff helps or screws us, but if the euro look a little better than 00z, it's probably game on for some accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Impressive for us snow starved ones... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Impressive for us snow starved ones... That's not bad..... .5" contour back to about rt 128... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Just by saying that folks shouldn't be getting excited about geeting snow yet. It's his way of saying he's not big on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 The trends today have been favorable but this could still end up being a minor event if things don't go right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 Trolling FTL. The only thing I'm watching for is how the srn stream stuff helps or screws us, but if the euro look a little better than 00z, it's probably game on for some accumulation. 12z ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 CMC GFS OPesque Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 GEM is ugliest of all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Part of me wishes that srn crap just goes away. I'm not sure how much it helps out to begin with. The part that is of any consequence to us, is nrn stream anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 12z ggem wwwwooooooooosh eastern special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Impressive for us snow starved ones... Nice....50 back to KTOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I don't have much doubt that the EURO will be closer to the GFS, than the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Part of me wishes that srn crap just goes away. I'm not sure how much it helps out to begin with. The part that is of any consequence to us, is nrn stream anyways. Doesn't help at all, and it's not going away. We can only hope the timing changes. GGEM is what I expected based on the RGEM. Euro should be right in the middle of the non-nam spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 wwwwooooooooosh eastern special For you yes...though your area is probably too far north anyway regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Well 12Z has promise but the arbiter will rule in about 40 minutes. Still.....gotta appreciate the trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Canadian is nothing special, but a tigher QPF gradient with the western wall of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 For you yes...though your area is probably too far north anyway regardless Oh smack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Well 12Z has promise but the arbiter will rule in about 40 minutes. Still.....gotta appreciate the trends. If the 12z NAM was never run the trends are still very good. In the end we may see the NW solution play out, but if there's any model prone to wild s/w placement/strength swings particularly in the southern stream at this range...it's the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Oh smack He's getting might cocky for someone who's going to get an inch of fluff blown off his driveway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 For you yes...though your area is probably too far north anyway regardless Not really, I see snow from most of the models now, Anything west is bonus, Nam put down 8" here, So anything in between the nam and GFS gives me a few inches, I have no BL issues either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.