Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 In a lot of instances, yes, But not always If the euro ens mean last night matched the op or was even west of the op..then I'd say game on..but if they were east of the op and then the Ukie goes east..then we're just looking at a light 2-4 inch event. I'm torn right now. There seems like a little room for it to come west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Phil is right regarding the phase speed. If it's too fast, it's a further east low, but I'm not too concerned about that, as long as the nrn stream piece coming from the PV looks better with time. what would need to happen to get the PV to back sw a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 If the euro ens mean last night matched the op or was even west of the op..then I'd say game on..but if they were east of the op and then the Ukie goes east..then we're just looking at a light 2-4 inch event. I'm torn right now. There seems like a little room for it to come west. Well it's your fault if you are disappointed. Expectations should not be high right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 If the euro ens mean last night matched the op or was even west of the op..then I'd say game on..but if they were east of the op and then the Ukie goes east..then we're just looking at a light 2-4 inch event. I'm torn right now. There seems like a little room for it to come west. Wow. an actually post from you not calling for feet for everyone. I'm impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 If the euro ens mean last night matched the op or was even west of the op..then I'd say game on..but if they were east of the op and then the Ukie goes east..then we're just looking at a light 2-4 inch event. I'm torn right now. There seems like a little room for it to come west. There is room, But its only so far, As long as we get a phase further south, Just that fact we would have a stronger low as it has trended that way by 4 mb will tug it west, The trough appears to be getting sharper as well which will help as well, Its going to come down to the timing of the phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 what would need to happen to get the PV to back sw a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It really is amazing the ups and downs that go on as a different model rolls in. The NAM comes in with a little snow bomb and everyone is up and talking about how this event will work. Then the GFS comes in and everyone talks about how the GFS is good, but we talk about how it is struggling with multiple centers. Then the UKIE comes in and everyone talks about how they are afraid that it might be right and how the storm might slide out to the east. If this forum were a roller coaster, it would be the most popular ride in the park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 what would need to happen to get the PV to back sw a bit? Well I don't think it's necessarily about the PV, but moreso the lobe of vorticity coming down from Canada. As long as we have enough ridging out west, it will help provide more meridional flow moving into the Plains. That in turn will help the energy dig. The strength of the energy is also important as it dives south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It really is amazing the ups and downs that go on as a different model rolls in. The NAM comes in with a little snow bomb and everyone is up and talking about how this event will work. Then the GFS comes in and everyone talks about how the GFS is good, but we talk about how it is struggling with multiple centers. Then the UKIE comes in and everyone talks about how they are afraid that it might be right and how the storm might slide out to the east. If this forum were a roller coaster, it would be the most popular ride in the park. Welcome to the world of a meteorologist. We are talking weather and the different outcomes here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 What a hit for the Cape on the GEFS. They look better than the GFS op because it's not as elongated with the low. Seems like they want the nrn stream goodness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Euro may be in between NAM and GFS. Western wall of precip FTW whoever gets it. I'd be shocked if that were not the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 it really focuses on the southern / offshore low NAM I believe is suffering some type of feedback/wave interference issue. It's not dramatically different than the other models but comes up with a pretty intense solution while looking totally odd at the surface at 48. GFS/UK/RGEM do not support the NW position of the low, I think it's an error. Not saying we won't see a compromise later on, but I think the Euro will fall heavily towards the rest of the suite. If I had to put out a forecast I'd totally ignore the NAM at this moment, doesn't mean it can't change in the coming 2 days, but right now it has no support and this is something it does sometimes (aside of the winter of blizzards where it did this from time to time and was right). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Well it's your fault if you are disappointed. Expectations should not be high right now. Right now everyonne should be expecting 2-4..with an upside of 3-6..anything less than 2-4 seems almost impossible at this point ..again depending on if the Euro comes west or goes East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 HI Blizz http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemble850mbTSLPUS060.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 That looks better than the op run. Would be a wild six hours for the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 gfs ens mean would be a rain to hvy wet snow bomb out here...with full on N gales. everything has that southern vort initiating dual LPs...just a matter of which ends up more dominant at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Right now everyonne should be expecting 2-4..with an upside of 3-6..anything less than 2-4 seems almost impossible at this point ..again depending on if the Euro comes west or goes East Again I agree. 2-4" seems like a good bet in most of central and eastern SNE. More if it comes west, which doesn't seem likely right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 That looks better than the op run. Would be a wild six hours for the Cape. Time for us to get something in the immediate Boston area though that solution would be ok for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 That looks better than the op run. Would be a wild six hours for the Cape. yeah even on the op it would be a nasty afternoon/evening. we'll see. i'm not a fan of seeing the ukmet blow up that offshore low given how every piece of guidance does try and develop it to some extent. looked like the ec ens had a little kink to the east too....hopefully the GFS is on the right path here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 NAM I believe is suffering some type of feedback/wave interference issue. It's not dramatically different than the other models but comes up with a pretty intense solution while looking totally odd at the surface at 48. GFS/UK/RGEM do not support the NW position of the low, I think it's an error. Not saying we won't see a compromise later on, but I think the Euro will fall heavily towards the rest of the suite. If I had to put out a forecast I'd totally ignore the NAM at this moment, doesn't mean it can't change in the coming 2 days, but right now it has no support and this is something it does sometimes (aside of the winter of blizzards where it did this from time to time and was right). It usually handles really tight lows best because they're more mesoscale in nature and that is where it trumps globals....the Jan 12 blizzard was a perfect example. Alot of us went ballz-to-wallz with the NAM despite that all globals, including the EURO, were relatively meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 NAM has you squarely in the jackpot 60 hours out. Doesn't that make you feel all warm and fuzzy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I agree 2-4 is a good call right now...maybe 3-6" on cc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I wish I could see the UKMET for 54 hours. The 60 hour plot which has qpf for the prior 6 hours has 0.25+ from 18Z Sat to 0Z Sunday from BOS south and east. I would think we'd do not all that badly as the low was blowing up and heading out under us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I agree 2-4 is a good call right now...maybe 3-6" on cc. Right. Anything over like 3-5" is totally weenie with the data we have. Most will atleast see 2-3" I think pending the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 king euro awaits with his unbiased might keeping weenies from Dc to Maine in Fright trends were our friends now uncle ukie has us wearing depends this met winter has been a joke these words need not be spoke to remind weenies of the disgust as skeptism from past misses hangs like rust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I wish I could see the UKMET for 54 hours. The 60 hour plot which has qpf for the prior 6 hours has 0.25+ from 18Z Sat to 0Z Sunday from BOS south and east. I would think we'd do not all that badly as the low was blowing up and heading out under us. 12 hr precip ending 00z sun is like .4" out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Still seems like Scooter thinks many see nothing but snow showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I agree 2-4 is a good call right now...maybe 3-6" on cc. Agreed. I'm going to put up a few inches for SE NH, with an option for more. I would like to see this system close off a little higher up. Otherwise, we're not getting the banding necessary for higher totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It's unreal how this winter started out west and nw of me with the halloweenie event, then n of me, and now seemingly south and se of me for the last couple of weeks. Now it will see to it that I pull a 2-spot in order to place my futility mark in great peril. Christ. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 12 hr precip ending 00z sun is like .4" out here. Yeah that 0.4 line is just NW of the canal I think. So my point is that total qpf should be pretty decent as it should be going pretty good from about 15-18Z and beyond for awhile. I mean by 12Z things are getting going with steady qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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