weathafella Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Yeah and it sort of weakens it too as it moves OTS. I think what would happen, is that if we indeed have dualing vorts...it may lead to the low closer to us, producing a more narrow area of heavier QPF closer to the low. IOW, the circulation may not be strong or large enough to throw moisture back. Anyways, just talking out loud here. If the nrn stream stuff does indeed come in better on the euro, it obviously bodes well for the region as a whole. Me...I'm whispering.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 if you looked strictly at MSLP progs and QPF - the 12z GFS is not tooooo far off from the 00z euro run. it's stronger at the surface and gets its act together a bit sooner, but sensible outcome is quite close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 i'm stickin with 1-3 to i see 2 straight runs of euro givin us more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 We are going to need to see a better cosolidation of this system to get the precip further nw warpped into the storm or we are going to be left with a narrow band on that side with the bulk of the precip staying east, Its a step in the right direction and details still need to be worked out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I'm feeling this one. The worm has turned. Looks like we have chances early next week as well. Yeah me too. Good vibes thanks to the person who posted the Bruce Schweogler video yesterday...prompted me to go on youtube and watch about an hour of old news video like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 My guess here is that the Ukie comes west and stronger which may be an indicator to what the euro may do as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Yeah looks like the 12z GFS tries to get something going next Wednesday. Hopefully that in turn helps with the following systems not being so wet and warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 the euro has the dual vms as well...it's just not as strong with either surface reflection Right because they interfere with one another in trying to develop a surface reflection. This seems most likely but with a lean towards the nw system. Nam is almost guaranteed over developing the nw system as its crushing the other vort too fast. Jmho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 The GFS almost always attempts to jump low pressure out toward the GS or wherever the best pre-existing baroclinic zone is. So we get this dualish low look at 12Z, but it may abandon that and tuck the low further in on subsequent runs.' Looks great for SNE..maybe we can get a few inches back here yet. I'm not too worried about the separate vort maxes right now. It should be watched, but lets get the storm to form first. It may be the GFS doing some crap with separate pieces of energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 My guess here is that the Ukie comes west and stronger which may be an indicator to what the euro may do as well the ukie is pretty far east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 We are going to need to see a better cosolidation of this system to get the precip further nw warpped into the storm or we are going to be left with a narrow band on that side with the bulk of the precip staying east, Its a step in the right direction and details still need to be worked out this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 the ukie is pretty far east 12z today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 12z today? yeah. better view: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Seems early.... 12z today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 The last four runs of the GFS have shown a tendency to allow more phasing between the shortwave energy located in the over the CO/NM border and the northern stream energy partially associated with the polar vortex. The main problem has been a phase speed error in the shortwave making its way across the southern tier of the United States. Its moving faster than expected, which is allowing the energy associated with this shortwave to be captured by the trough associated with the polar vortex. This has pretty major implications. If we see much more amplification, the results could be explosive and depending on the downstream ridging, this could be focused closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 yeah. yuck, Well, If euro holds serve at this point would work out definitly for the eastern areas and you, With lighter snow to the west, Will know in a little more then an hour.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It might have jumped the low east/northeast at 60 hrs. If that's 6 hr precip increments there might be some in SNE in the 48-54 time frame. yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 yuck it really focuses on the southern / offshore low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 OOF! Crazy UKIE...sticking with trends and the EURO for the time being. Anyway, off for a run...what a day today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I'd say toss the Ukie..but now I am concerned the Euro shifts east because it usually follows the Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 You can see it wants to have a low more toward the G. of ME, southern NS at 60 hrs, but it jumped it all to the offshore low. But hey it's the UKMET ...kinda an erratic model. it really focuses on the southern / offshore low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 it really focuses on the southern / offshore low That could end up becoming an issue as we move along, I hope not but all the models seem to have it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I'd say toss the Ukie..but now I am concerned the Euro shifts east because it usually follows the Ukie Agree actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I say the Euro goes boom ..as Jerry said. SNE getting their second major snowstorm of the cold season...thats two more than ENY.... 3rd significant snowstorm for some people in CT who benefited from the January system. I'd say toss the Ukie..but now I am concerned the Euro shifts east because it usually follows the Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I'd say toss the Ukie..but now I am concerned the Euro shifts east because it usually follows the Ukie In a lot of instances, yes, But not always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 it really focuses on the southern / offshore low one concern of mine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 one concern of mine And with good reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Phil is right regarding the phase speed. If it's too fast, it's a further east low, but I'm not too concerned about that, as long as the nrn stream piece coming from the PV looks better with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 at least there is potential for the euro to go BOOM. prolly 1 in 5 or so but let's roll the dice again and get a phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Even if the UKMET was right.... you're good for several inches. Good spot to be for this event. one concern of mine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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