Baroclinic Zone Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Definitely better than 6z. NW, shaper trough, still a bit flat which prevents the thing from really going to town. There are some weird things going on...seems like typical GFS with lows near convective blobs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Elongated low, maybe feedback? Low se of BM with good precip getting into SNE at hr 54. Slides the southern vort well east of the benchmark... definitely not a quick phase but sharper trough to the west looks more consolidated which helps drop pressures off the coast. Not a great solution but better than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 GFS thru 54h still having trouble focusing on right piece of energy, elongates low initially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 One concern I have is if that southern piece shoots out ahead of the deepening trough and we miss the phase. Storm becomes a scraper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 i think that's in response to the southern vort late phase. Close to a good snowstorm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 winner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 i think that's in response to the southern vort Yeah that's what it is. Can't really decide what piece to like. It's the Cashman of models right now..not knowing what female vort to like. I think this is going to have a heck of a western wall of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 One concern I have is if that southern piece shoots out ahead of the deepening trough and we miss the phase. Storm becomes a scraper. Yeah exactly. At least you do get some snow though as the northern stream system strengthens and lowers pressure offshore. So not terrible but not great either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Elongated low, maybe feedback? Low se of BM with good precip getting into SNE at hr 54. Euro should give us the tip. I think nam may be more wrong here but we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Yeah that's what it is. Can't really decide what piece to like. It's the Cashman of models right now..not knowing what female vort to like. I think this is going to have a heck of a western wall of precip. Yeah agreed. Still gets 0.3" back to BDL. Definitely a big tick NW with precip from 6z. Would love to see what the Euro does. I have a sneaking suspicion it goes boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 GFS is a solid 3+ for us deprived eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I'm not too worried about the separate vort maxes right now. It should be watched, but lets get the storm to form first. It may be the GFS doing some crap with separate pieces of energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Still, it is a lot better than before, and seeing how it is the "first run" that has it doing something for NE, I think there will be a lot of shifting now with this solution. "Something" is going to happen though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I'm not too worried about the separate vort maxes right now. It should be watched, but lets get the storm to form first. It may be the GFS doing some crap with separate pieces of energy. If things are too flat with northern stream you can see how that southern vort will have a tough time rounding the corner for the phase. That said the trend with a sharper/more amplified/west northern stream makes me think we'll see more phase than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Euro may be in between NAM and GFS. Western wall of precip FTW whoever gets it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 Yeah exactly. At least you do get some snow though as the northern stream system strengthens and lowers pressure offshore. So not terrible but not great either. Yeah, I hope people don't confuse my thoughts. I'd hit the GFS solution 9 ways till Sunday. We are under 3 days lead time now and all the pieces of the puzzle are on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Yeah agreed. Still gets 0.3" back to BDL. Definitely a big tick NW with precip from 6z. Would love to see what the Euro does. I have a sneaking suspicion it goes boom. After seeing what has happened up to now, I think you may be right, Game on if it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 If things are too flat with northern stream you can see how that southern vort will have a tough time rounding the corner for the phase. That said the trend with a sharper/more amplified/west northern stream makes me think we'll see more phase than not. Yeah I'm rooting for the nrn stream to trend sharper overall, because that helps out two fold, as you mentioned. It's funny because a few days ago, we were talking about how models sometimes trend better with energy diving due south from Canada, once it gets sampled. Lo and behold, that's what is occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 not so worried about the GFS in that it does have the se bias and does it not do better with ns energy than ss? The trend appears to be our friend. Lets see what the Crazy Uncle, The Candiens are military have to say. Of course this is the biggest Euro run of our lives... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Weenie me all you want, it looks way better lol Being weenied is the official welcome to the board so... welcome! Agreed though - I like the look of this 12z GFS run. It keeps some of the N and S energy separate so I actually think it could be a bit better with a cleaner Northern and Southern stream phase - this is especially apparent to me at hr 54 and 60 with the double barrel low look under distinct 500 mb energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Damn it's close on the GFS. I think if it phases a little earlier with more energy developing in the northern stream pulling it close to the BM we're in store for something really exciting. But like Bob says if that southern piece shoots out to sea early, we're looking at a scraper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 the euro has the dual vms as well...it's just not as strong with either surface reflection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Damn it's close on the GFS. I think if it phases a little earlier with more energy developing in the northern stream pulling it close to the BM we're in store for something really exciting. But like Bob says if that southern piece shoots out to sea early, we're looking at a scraper. The srn stream stuff will have to be watched, but it also helps kick things off. If the euro contiues to improve, I wouldn't worry too much about it right now..especially if you're just keeping things in perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 GFS is a solid 3+ for us deprived eastern areas. Jerry, the way things are looking with the 12Z suite: Boston will see more snow in 10 hours of this storm than it did in the past 4 months combined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 the euro has the dual vms as well...it's just not as strong with either surface reflection Seems like it shears out the southern stream as the northern stream digs and goes to town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I'm not too worried about the separate vort maxes right now. It should be watched, but lets get the storm to form first. It may be the GFS doing some crap with separate pieces of energy. Big IF but the seeming common opinions is that if there is a more clean phase of the northern and southern energies it'll tighten up the thermal gradient and allow better inflow and more snow. And so long as the track is similar to what it shows now there wouldn't be p-type concerns it would more just be an improved amount of moisture being thrown into the system. FWIW the 12z NAM also kept the energies separate but the northern steam energy was a good deal more potent than the southern stream energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 the euro has the dual vms as well...it's just not as strong with either surface reflection Yeah and it sort of weakens it too as it moves OTS. I think what would happen, is that if we indeed have dualing vorts...it may lead to the low closer to us, producing a more narrow area of heavier QPF closer to the low. IOW, the circulation may not be strong or large enough to throw moisture back. Anyways, just talking out loud here. If the nrn stream stuff does indeed come in better on the euro, it obviously bodes well for the region as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Big trends today at 12z. Bring the EURO in a bit more NW and it's game fully on. FINALLY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Jerry, the way things are looking with the 12Z suite: Boston will see more snow in 10 hours of this storm than it did in the past 4 months combined. I'm feeling this one. The worm has turned. Looks like we have chances early next week as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.