Baroclinic Zone Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Previous discussion. Continue any model/storm discussion here for the weekend threat. Keep it on topic. We let the last thread go in the ****ter. Banter, whining and bitching can go in the banter/obs thread. 12z runs today did not offer up any definitive answers. Looks like a general light snowfall but the possibility of a whiff is real too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 It'll be interesting to see how models further handle the location of the PV which will either allow the trough dig or allow energy to slide harmlessly OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Euro ensembles look like the op for the most part. It does seem like the outer precip shield would brush the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 New SREFs with a sizeable shift NW for 18z.. they still don't have SNE within the 0.1 contour however.. It was a pretty noticeable shift compared to 12z though Congrats Newfoundland on 18z Nam for first storm.. thing bombs out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 We'll still have to watch for potential of a localized inverted trough enhancement area...instability is pretty good and we have plenty of low level moisture to work with so its certainly possible we see some sort of enhancement where any LL convergence can set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 We'll still have to watch for potential of a localized inverted trough enhancement area...instability is pretty good and we have plenty of low level moisture to work with so its certainly possible we see some sort of enhancement where any LL convergence can set up. Seems like the MA might actually have a shot at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 We'll still have to watch for potential of a localized inverted trough enhancement area...instability is pretty good and we have plenty of low level moisture to work with so its certainly possible we see some sort of enhancement where any LL convergence can set up. So as of right now ..you like a general 1-3 for all of SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 So as of right now ..you like a general 1-3 for all of SNE? I think he means the potential is there for areas to get 1-3" if the euro works out like that. I agree as well, but it's not out of the question that we see a development further east and we are left with trying to get lucky with snow showers or an inv trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 So as of right now ..you like a general 1-3 for all of SNE? I don't know if I'd go 3" right now...but I think most people will get measurable out of it...whether its 0.6" or 2.6" I'm not sure yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 18z nam would suggest some light accumulations for part of the area. probably also have to watch to see what, if any, activity accompanies the arctic front later in the weekend. it's potent and has a good amount of PVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 18z nam would suggest some light accumulations for part of the area. probably also have to watch to see what, if any, activity accompanies the arctic front later in the weekend. it's potent and has a good amount of PVA. Sultan of Sandbag Windex event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 18z nam would suggest some light accumulations for part of the area. probably also have to watch to see what, if any, activity accompanies the arctic front later in the weekend. it's potent and has a good amount of PVA. verbatim seems like BL issues for most of SNE, at least initially on the 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Any squalls or snow showers could lead to a pretty quick freeze up, if it were to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 verbatim seems like BL issues for most of SNE, at least initially on the 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Sultan of Sandbag Windex event? would be nice the last one was complete phail. wintry weekend, hopefully we have cover to take the kids grand kids sledding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 verbatim seems like BL issues for most of SNE, at least initially on the 18z NAM yeah it'll depend on the evolution. some progs would definitely signal some liquid potentially at the onset...flipping over. that's a nuance that's hard to get specific on right now though. the euro would be a colder outcome with its solution. actually it even does a nice job of cooling the surface temps in response to heavier precip out here IMBY sat PM - while it has the main 35F isotherm way west up in NW MA it has a closed contour of 30-35F temps centered right over the Cape as it gets the heavier/steadier precip up and through the area during the afternoon - just shows how subtle things play into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 He did say verbatim. I assume you didn't actually view the maps. I wouldn't fret though...let's let the NAM get a clue synoptically first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I remember Will saying you look for the 35 degree isotherm on the Euro for snow..Looks like maybe just a coastal BL issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 yeah it'll depend on the evolution. some progs would definitely signal some liquid potentially at the onset...flipping over. that's a nuance that's hard to get specific on right now though. the euro would be a colder outcome with its solution. actually it even does a nice job of cooling the surface temps in response to heavier precip out here IMBY sat PM - while it has the main 35F isotherm way west up in NW MA it has a closed contour of 30-35F temps centered right over the Cape as it gets the heavier/steadier precip up and through the area during the afternoon - just shows how subtle things play into it. The band of snow accompanying the front and just behind it like the NAM had, does make sense to me. I guess several things are up in the air, but this had flash freeze all over it, if it did happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I remember Will saying you look for the 35 degree isotherm on the Euro for snow..Looks like maybe just a coastal BL issue well the 35F isotherm is out in NYS at 18z sat even on the euro. it's probably not a big deal but his point was valid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 The band of snow accompanying the front and just behind it like the NAM had, does make sense to me. I guess several things are up in the air, but this had flash freeze all over it, if it did happen. yeah you can even see the 2m temps crash on just about all products too. looks on some charts like the kind of thing where it starts as a mix or rain or very wet snow or whatnot with temps in the middle/high 30s and then suddenly plummets as the front sags through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 The wetbulb 0 heights are so low that nobody is going to see much liquid out of this...it might start as a few drops in the lower spots, but it would go to snow quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 The wetbulb 0 heights are so low that nobody is going to see much liquid out of this...it might start as a few drops in the lower spots, but it would go to snow quickly. Yup..only drops will be right near water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Yup..only drops will be right near water Those snow showers will just dump on Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 The wetbulb 0 heights are so low that nobody is going to see much liquid out of this...it might start as a few drops in the lower spots, but it would go to snow quickly. yeah I don't think anyone Is saying downpours or anything like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Those snow showers will just dump on Tolland. Not sure why you are so down on this. This is going to lay down a nice blanket of white over most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Yup..only drops will be right near water hopefully you get some snow out of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Those snow showers will just dump on Tolland. Im going with a Bruce Schwoegler 4-6" in the hills from squalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Im going with a Bruce Schwoegler 4-6" in the hills from squalls. I can see him now with that wand of his, drawing on the map how the flow is going to come down from NY State and dump on the "northern and western mountains"...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Not sure why you are so down on this. This is going to lay down a nice blanket of white over most of us. Honestly, I'm just bustin' your chops. I'm not going to be here, anyways. I'm not very excited about it personally, but I wouldn't rule out some weenie band from either an inv trough deal, or a band along and just behind the front. It just looks kind of meh to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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