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Lake effect snow potential this weekend


Hoosier

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I would get in your car drive there... I would not be surprised to see 15 to 20 inch amounts!

The band has been slowly shifting around since it started organizing over NW IN 4-5 hours ago...if it can stall someone will see over a foot though if not 18"...it's tough to tell if/when a lake band will park.

We get hit with lake effect in NE OH pretty good at least once per winter, but I definitely would like to get into one of these long fetch bands some day soon...either a N-S band off of Michigan/Huron, a W-E band off of Superior/Ontario or a SW-NE band off of Erie.

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The band has been slowly shifting around since it started organizing over NW IN 4-5 hours ago...if it can stall someone will see over a foot though if not 18"...it's tough to tell if/when a lake band will park.

We get hit with lake effect in NE OH pretty good at least once per winter, but I definitely would like to get into one of these long fetch bands some day soon...either a N-S band off of Michigan/Huron, a W-E band off of Superior/Ontario or a SW-NE band off of Erie.

Your right looks to be shifting again back towards Gary...

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1125 PM BLIZZARD 2 W BURNS HARBOR 41.61N 87.17W

02/10/2012 PORTER IN PUBLIC

VISIBILITY LESS THAN ONE CAR LENGTH DUE TO HEAVY AND

EXTREME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW

1125 PM SNOW 2 W BURNS HARBOR 41.61N 87.16W

02/10/2012 E9.0 INCH PORTER IN PUBLIC

ESTIMATED SNOWFALL OF 8-10 INCHES...DIFFICULT TO TELL DUE

TO SEVERE DRIFTING. MOST OF THAT SNOW FELL IN THE PAST

2.5 HOURS

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LOT upgraded to a blizzard warning for Porter County...not too often you see that in a lake effect situation, usually reserved for very strong and semi-stationary bands with winds to boot...

...DANGEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORM TO SET UP TONIGHT OVER MAINLY

NORTHWEST INDIANA...

INZ002-111345-

/O.CAN.KLOT.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-120211T1500Z/

/O.NEW.KLOT.BZ.W.0001.120211T0545Z-120211T1500Z/

PORTER-

INCLUDING THE CITY OF...VALPARAISO

1145 PM CST FRI FEB 10 2012

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY...

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD

WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY. THE LAKE

EFFECT SNOW WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

* TIMING...AN INTENSE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO

AFFECT PORTIONS OF PORTER COUNTY OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY

MORNING HOURS SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO LAPORTE COUNTY

AND WEAKENING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES IS LIKELY

WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 18 INCHES EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY

ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTY. SNOWFALL RATES

WITHIN THE MOST INTENSE SNOW BANDS TONIGHT WILL APPROACH 4

INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. DUE TO THE LOCALIZED NATURE OF LAKE

EFFECT SNOW...ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY VARY SIGNIFICANTLY OVER

A SHORT DISTANCE.

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF CRIPPLINGLY INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES

AND WINDS GUSTING TO BETWEEN 35 AND 50 MPH WILL RESULT IN WHITE

OUT CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO ONLY 10 OR 20 FEET

AT TIMES. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS IF NOT NEARLY

IMPOSSIBLE AND THE INDIANA HIGHWAY PATROL IS SUGGESTING THAT

PEOPLE AVOID TRAVEL IF POSSIBLE.

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Gino Izzi's AFD to go along with the upgrade:

.DISCUSSION...

1150 PM CST

HAVE UPGRADED PORTER COUNTY TO A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE

REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AFTER MAKING NUMEROUS CALLS TO

LAW ENFORCEMENT AND PUBLIC ACROSS NORTHERN PORTER COUNTY REALIZED

THAT CONDITIONS WERE EVEN MORE SEVERE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

VISBILITIES HAVE BEEN REPORTED TO BE LESS THAN ONE CAR LENGTH AND

ONE PERSON WAS QUOTED AS SAYING THIS STORM MAKES LAST YEARS

BLIZZARD SEEM LIKE NOTHING. COMBINATION OF EXCELLATION OF WINDS

WITHIN THE CONVERGENCE BAND AND CONVECTIVELY MIXING DOWN WIND

GUSTS AM CONFIDENT THAT THE WIND SPEED AND VISIBILITY CRITERIA FOR

A BLIZZARD WILL BE MET. REPORTS OF 8-10 INCHES HAVING FALLEN SO

FAR WITH SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF INTENSE SNOW WITH RATES OF 2-4

INCHES PER HOUR EXPECTED. STORM TOTALS OF A FOOT AND A HALF STILL

LOOK LIKE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.

IN ADDITION...BURNS HARBOR JUST CAME IN WITH A 52 KT GUST AT 0521Z

UNDERNEATH THE INTENSE LES BAND. STILL THINK THERE IS A POSSIBILITY

OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE BAND AS WELL GIVEN

THE EXTREME LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY.

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son of a b*tch.

:violin:

pretty sure I'll take the blizzard over this 100 times out of a 100.

I probably would too (if I lived in Chicago) but being a bit of a lake effect snow nut, I'd be doing back flips right now if I lived in Porter County. Guess it depends on your perspective.

This band is obviously a beast. Strong convergence extends down the whole axis of the warm lake, the band has literally created its own mesoscale environment...

post-525-0-58223100-1328940823.png

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1225 AM HEAVY SNOW 4 E LINCOLN HILLS 41.46N 87.04W

02/11/2012 E4.0 INCH PORTER IN TRAINED SPOTTER

VISIBILITY IS DOWN TO ZERO...MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW

HAS FALLEN IN 20 MINUTES INCLUDING 1 INCH IN

APPROXIMATELY 5 MINUTES AT VALPARAISO UNIVERSITY.

The bold is why I would take this over any blizzard.

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The bold is why I would take this over any blizzard.

Totally agree! Absolutely love seeing bands such as these around the lakes. Buffalo receives several bands such as this during any given winter. The one during 2001 brought us 6 inches+ per hour snowfall rates for several hours. Receiving 82 inches of snow in 4 days. I would take any Lake effect snowstorm over any synoptic blizzard easily. Our biggest snowstorms are from lake effect, no synoptic storm even comes close to snowfall rates that are within lake effect snow. Wonder if anyone in that area will approach 2 feet when all is said and done!

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It was a real brief burst...we're hanging between 1/8 and 1/4 mi now...were definitely down to about 100 yards at one point.

What was flake size like in the band?

With the extreme lake induced instability in the lowest levels which due to the cold 850mb temps coincides with the DGZ, I'd imagine very high ratio dendrites falling but the winds are awfully strong.

1" in 5 mins is insane, either way.

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1010 AM HEAVY SNOW 2 SSE STEVENSVILLE 41.99N 86.51W

02/11/2012 M15.5 INCH BERRIEN MI COCORAHS

STORM TOTAL. 5.4 INCHES IN THE LAST 1 HOUR AND 40

MINUTES.

That's a pretty healthy total! Seemed like the band remained somewhat transient last night and didn't stall in one given area too long. I was expecting to see some 18" totals this morning, but that's pretty serious total!

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