A-L-E-K Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 ultimate Alek tease yep, like a 5 mile miss, as we were talking about yesterday, these kinds of LE events almost never happen on this side of the lake. damn thing is so close on the HRRR that the lighthouse jutting out from the beach may see a couple inches while my apartment a few hundred yards from the beach sees nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 While there are lake effect elements on that loop, if you're talking about the band that I think you are...that's not lake effect. I think you're right after thinking about it some more. Likely lake enhancement, but it seems to be part of the frontal structure. First LES cancel lol Ripping pretty good out there regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Snow since 10am has been a lot like pure lake effect, but I know it's not pure lake effect. Some lake effect moving into Oak Creek in Milwaukee County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 HRRR looks like the farthest west model with the RGEM a close second. Most others seem to move the band eastward a little faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 HRRR looks like the farthest west model with the RGEM a close second. Most others seem to move the band eastward a little faster. Yep, outliers, although i've been using the HRRR for trends since it updates rapidly and it has been shifting in baby steps west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 quick look at the last RUC is decent for Chicago but does move east once the main band really gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The RR is a nice hit for Lake and E. Porter counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The start of the plume for NW IN may be originating from that lake effect area north of Racine. Mostly 15dbz returns with a few specs of 20dbz so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 SN with nice dendrites now with the initial push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 RUC throws me a bone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 I'd like to see this verify. Jacque on steroids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 The trajectories become pretty favorable for some of the scraps to make it down to LAF overnight. Question is how robust the inland penetration is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 IWX has now put Berrien, LaPorte and Starke under a winter storm warning for 3-9 inches of snow and most of their northern counties under an advisory. Light snow now here at Dunlap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Early lake snow band grazing the shore and now producing some low end moderate snow over my place. Good luck to hoosier if he decides to chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 continuing to slowly ramp up, extreme SE Cook might make out ok. EDIT: starting to feel like a legit winter storm, surfaces now snow covered, wind picking up and high end mod snow falling. Probably getting close to 1.5" now, might bust low depending on how long this hangs on EDIT x2: looks like we are getting some bonus convergence as the last of the front related snows encounter the budding lake band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 continuing to slowly ramp up, extreme SE Cook might make out ok. EDIT: starting to feel like a legit winter storm, surfaces now snow covered, wind picking up and high end mod snow falling. Probably getting close to 1.5" now, might bust low depending on how long this hangs on EDIT x2: looks like we are getting some bonus convergence as the last of the front related snows encounter the budding lake band. LOT calling for 4-6" in southeast Cook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 LOT calling for 4-6" in southeast Cook. nice, they should make it easy. Really ripping here, monster flakes, great rates and the band is in its infancy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The trajectories become pretty favorable for some of the scraps to make it down to LAF overnight. Question is how robust the inland penetration is. 21z backup RUC has the band (not as intense of course as farther north) making it to LAF, if not a bit farther south. Matter of fact it's over us, or at least in the county, from 6 to 12z. Weenie solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 21z backup RUC has the band (not as intense of course as farther north) making it to LAF, if not a bit farther south. Matter of fact it's over us, or at least in the county, from 6 to 12z. Weenie solution. good luck, just getting scraped here but the band is much more intense than i had imagined. Inland penetration should be excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 21z backup RUC has the band (not as intense of course as farther north) making it to LAF, if not a bit farther south. Matter of fact it's over us, or at least in the county, from 6 to 12z. Weenie solution. Don't remember the exact event, but I remember one in which Lake/Newton/Porter/Jasper/Starke/St Joseph/Pulaski/Berrien counties were under Lake Effect Snow Warnings. Advisories surrounded this area and went all the way down to White County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 21z backup RUC has the band (not as intense of course as farther north) making it to LAF, if not a bit farther south. Matter of fact it's over us, or at least in the county, from 6 to 12z. Weenie solution. That would be very cool too see. Have not seen a decent band make it too far south in a number of years. Way back when ( 80s or 90s? ) i remember one coming off the lake that made it all the way into KY/TN. Had another that came off of Huron and managed to sneak across the apps all the way to the coast where i was. Anyways good luck with it everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 good luck, just getting scraped here but the band is much more intense than i had imagined. Inland penetration should be excellent. I think we're still in the lake enhanced stage of this event although there are signs of a band beginning to take shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I think we're still in the lake enhanced stage of this event although there are signs of a band beginning to take shape. there's def some enhancement going on as i mentioned above, but the lake band is pretty evident at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 That would be very cool too see. Have not seen a decent band make it too far south in a number of years. Way back when ( 80s or 90s? ) i remember one coming off the lake that made it all the way into KY/TN. Had another that came off of Huron and managed to sneak across the apps all the way to the coast where i was. Anyways good luck with it everyone. We actually got accumulating LES here in LAF with the December 12, 2010 event. Now it was a LE and LES combo overall, but there was probably 2" or so of "real" LES accumulation here. Very rare. But yeah I remember seeing bands make it pretty far south (KY, etc) before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Good agreement from short term guidance that the LES band will stall in the vicinity of the Lake/Porter county line from around 2-7 or 8z...before steadily drifting east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Gotta love how the single band is starting to form down the length of Lake Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Based on radar estimates...Portions of N. Porter Co have already picked up over 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Good agreement from short term guidance that the LES band will stall in the vicinity of the Lake/Porter county line from around 2-7 or 8z...before steadily drifting east. Probably a tad too far west...more likely gonna be Valpo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Probably a tad too far west...more likely gonna be Valpo. Indeed. Latest RUC keeps the band in the same general area through about 4AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Funny how everyone's attitude has changed now that there is snow! It has been a while, but it was worth the wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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