Chicago Storm Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 LOT LESW text for Lake and Porter Co's... SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES IS LIKELY WHERE THE HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OCCURS...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 18 INCHES POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN THE MOST INTENSE SNOW BAND LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS COULD EXCEED 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR. DUE TO THE LOCALIZED NATURE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...ACCUMULATIONS CAN AND OFTEN DO VARY SIGNIFICANTLY OVER VERY SHORT DISTANCES AND MANY AREAS IN LAKE COUNTY MAY END UP WITH LESS THAN 6 INCHES...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 EDIT: I almost forgot, final calls. IMBY 1.5", at the office 2.5" take it to da $$$ Riding this call, probably too high but it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Possible thunder mentioned by LOT as well in Porter Co. This LES event feels like it will deliver - a super long fetch (LOT mentioned all the way from Lk Sup), extreme instability, and 2-3" per hour rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Possible thunder mentioned by LOT as well in Porter Co. This LES event feels like it will deliver - a super long fetch (LOT mentioned all the way from Lk Sup), extreme instability, and 2-3" per hour rates. Good luck, it's been a while since a nice Valpo event. I would be pretty cool to be downtown in a highrise and see flashes out over the lake. For those on this side of the lake, the HRRR is giving some hope for our third largest snow of the season (which would be greater than 1" IMBY). EDIT: latest run brushes the far eastern portions of Cook with some disorganized LE before the real band gets going literally a mile or so off shore. Going to be heartbreakingly close for those of us right on the lake in Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 from Gino's AFD MUCH BIGGER STORY IS THE INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT THAT LOOKS TO BE SHAPING UP FOR TONIGHT OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. VERY COLD AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE UNSEASONABLY MILD LAKE (OFFSHORE LAKE SFC TEMPS 4-5C) WILL RESULT IN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. REALLY LOOKING LIKE A CLASSIC INTENSE SINGLE BAND SET-UP DEVELOPING BY MID-LATE EVENING AND LINGERING INTO VERY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. BOUNDARY LAYER STREAMLINES SHOW FULL FETCH DOWN THE LAKE ACTUALLY ORIGINATING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SNOW BAND. LAKE-850MB DELTA-T PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 20-23C OVERNIGHT WITH 700MB DELTA-T VALUES NEARING 30C AS EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISE TO OVER 12000FT. GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPES OVER 700 J/KG AND TEMPS AT THE EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS APPROACHING THE -30C WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO EVEN SEE SOME THUNDERSNOW DEVELOP AT THE HEIGHT OF THE EVENT TONIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL LIKELY REACH AT LEAST 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR WITH WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS EXPECTING TO MAKE TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS IF NOT OUTRIGHT IMPOSSIBLE. GAVE VERY SERIOUS CONSIDERATION TO GOING WITH A BLIZZARD WARNING RATHER THAN LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...BUT GFS HAS WINDS COMING DOWN QUICKER THAN THE WRF-NAM AND EVEN IF WRF-NAM VERIFIES NOT SURE THE STRICT 3 HOUR CRITERIA WILL BE MET. REGARDLESS...OF WHETHER STRICT CRITERIA IS OFFICIALLY MET...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE EXPERIENCED WITHIN THE INTENSE SNOW BAND LATE TONIGHT. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE...SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE VERY DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN IN LAKE EFFECT SITUATIONS. IF THE BAND OF +SN SITS IN ANY ONE LOCATION FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME THEN WOULDN'T TAKE MUCH IMAGINATION TO ENVISION SNOWFALL TOTALS OF AT LEAST 18 INCHES. MODELS SUGGEST THE BAND WILL PROBABLY BE MOBILE ENOUGH TO GENERALLY KEEP TOTALS IN THE 6-12 INCH RANGE...BUT OBVIOUSLY FORECAST CONFIDENCE ISNT PARTICULARLY HIGH. EXPECT THE BAND WILL MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH INLAND TO POSE A THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWS INTO JASPER AND POSSIBLY EVEN NE NEWTON COUNTY. HAVE ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY THERE THINKING THAT THE INTENSITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESSENED THAT FAR INLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 from Gino's AFD Seriously, all snow starved weenies need to get to NW Indiana now. Find a local joint hunker down and enjoy. Hopefully tony or keener get some pics or video of the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I plan on staying up as late as I can to watch this event. You'll have plenty of pics and video in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 HRRR showing lake superior connection for a full lake plus band, excellent inland penetration in Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Chase....bars....chase....bars This is going to be a tough decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Chase....bars....chase....bars This is going to be a tough decision. why not find a bar in the jackpot zone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 why not find a bar in the jackpot zone? That could be a very real choice. I wonder how the bars are around VU. Never really tried them out. At any rate, there is more credence to this event today than there was yesterday. I just want to be almost certain that somewhere will get double digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 That could be a very real choice. I wonder how the bars are around VU. Never really tried them out. At any rate, there is more credence to this event today than there was yesterday. I just want to be almost certain that somewhere will get double digits. You have some time, at least wait until some of the 12z hi res runs play out to see if they continue pushing things east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 hi res go east again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The 12z NAM4 develops the band over Lake & Porter Counties before strengthening the band and pushing it farther East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 If the 12z guidance is correct, IWX is going to need some type of LES product for at least La Porte County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 Looking at an initial target of Merrillville if I end up going out later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Looking at an initial target of Merrillville if I end up going out later. I myself haven't decided yet for sure either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Looking at an initial target of Merrillville if I end up going out later. Easy drive up I-65 into a near blizzard for you I hope if Gino's AFD works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 Easy drive up I-65 into a near blizzard for you I hope if Gino's AFD works out. Yep...very convenient. RUC/HRRR look like they are perhaps a little slower to move the band east than other hi-res runs. Minor variations and the fact that this hasn't taken shape yet make the exact final placement a little difficult but gut feeling is that the jackpot ends up somewhere between I-65 and IN-49. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Yep...very convenient. RUC/HRRR look like they are perhaps a little slower to move the band east than other hi-res runs. Minor variations and the fact that this hasn't taken shape yet make the exact final placement a little difficult but gut feeling is that the jackpot ends up somewhere between I-65 and IN-49. HRRR is an outlier at this point but has been consistent and is doing well with ongoing frontal passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 925 mb winds of 40 kts are being progged over the lake and nearshore areas. It will be interesting to see if that has any effect in slowing down the band organization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 few things keeping me from jumping full bore into going to IN later tonight. 1. can the band stall or does it move east slowly? 2. timing. 3. strong winds creating near blizzard conditions, my car isn't the greatest in the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 LES band coming right for Madison! Already in the northern part of the county. http://tempest.aos.wisc.edu/radar/swicompflash.html My first real LES band I think if it happens, we get some lake enhancement during snowstorms but the real deal is rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 925 mb winds of 40 kts are being progged over the lake and nearshore areas. It will be interesting to see if that has any effect in slowing down the band organization. Yeah the 15z RUC progging near 45kt winds at 925mb at 3z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 latest HRRR is definitely a hair west of previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 few things keeping me from jumping full bore into going to IN later tonight. 1. can the band stall or does it move east slowly? 2. timing. 3. strong winds creating near blizzard conditions, my car isn't the greatest in the snow. Neither is mine which makes for some white knuckle driving. This is probably one of those events where you don't want to be in an isolated spot if the worst comes to pass, hence my Merrillville pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 Anyone know what the HRRR track record is for LES events? I haven't used it enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 latest HRRR is definitely a hair west of previous runs. ultimate Alek tease Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 LES band coming right for Madison! Already in the northern part of the county. http://tempest.aos.w...icompflash.html My first real LES band I think if it happens, we get some lake enhancement during snowstorms but the real deal is rare. While there are lake effect elements on that loop, if you're talking about the band that I think you are...that's not lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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