heavy_wx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 keep in mind this seems to have a west bias in these events A similar bias exists for single banded lake effect events over Lake Ontario where the WRF is often too far south with the band. One possible theory for this is that the model overestimates the frictional convergence along the southern shore of the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I remember how the Christmas 2010 lake effect ended up playing out. Lake Effect was supposed to hit SE Cook and Lake, IN, but ended up way north, in this area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 I remember how the Christmas 2010 lake effect ended up playing out. Lake Effect was supposed to hit SE Cook and Lake, IN, but ended up way north, in this area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 The setups are different but in terms of placement, this event reminds me a bit of 1/22/05. That one also started farther up the shore in IL before swinging eastward and hammering the state line area into Lake county IN. I doubt we'll see the extreme amounts (2 feet in Lake county) or inland penetration (a few inches as far south as Kentland) that one had. Maybe take a blend of 1/22/05 and 1/20/09 and you'll come up with a reasonable possibility for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Semi OT, but it would be nice if LE watches could be done similar to the way severe/tornado warnings are, since 98% of the area in LOTs Illinois warned counties won't see anywhere near 6" amounts. this. and i would add winter storm events to that too. cook co is probably the worst since the city is the main focus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 The setups are different but in terms of placement, this event reminds me a bit of 1/22/05. That one also started farther up the shore in IL before swinging eastward and hammering the state line area into Lake county IN. I doubt we'll see the extreme amounts (2 feet in Lake county) or inland penetration (a few inches as far south as Kentland) that one had. Maybe take a blend of 1/22/05 and 1/20/09 and you'll come up with a reasonable possibility for this event. Was there a winter storm in the area during the Jan '05 event? ... because I received a foot of snow between the 21st and 22nd! Winter storm warnings were issued here both days. Looks like the heaviest snow came late the 21st and early the 22nd for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Will probably be a wait and see thing tomorrow afternoon/evening if I and others head a bit east. Timing isn't great. Don't feel like being up in the middle of the night. Would take a good single band to get me over there. Joe you heading out for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Will probably be a wait and see thing tomorrow afternoon/evening if I and others head a bit east. Timing isn't great. Don't feel like being up in the middle of the night. Would take a good single band to get me over there. Joe you heading out for this? Take the day off, head over to the Casinos, not a bad idea. http://www.horseshoe...erty-home.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Take the day off, head over to the Casinos, not a bad idea. gotta work till 4 30, but thinking about going into IN tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 Was there a winter storm in the area during the Jan '05 event? ... because I received a foot of snow between the 21st and 22nd! Winter storm warnings were issued here both days. Looks like the heaviest snow came late the 21st and early the 22nd for here. Yes, the "super clipper" event that has been mentioned here. Then it transitioned into a lake effect event on the 22nd into the 23rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 Will probably be a wait and see thing tomorrow afternoon/evening if I and others head a bit east. Timing isn't great. Don't feel like being up in the middle of the night. Would take a good single band to get me over there. Joe you heading out for this? I'm thinking about heading out too depending on how it looks tomorrow. Been waiting for a good north flow event all winter and probably won't have ample additional opportunities. Only thing is the bad timing and I've also been battling a cold or something and haven't been feeling great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 i have dinner reservations tomorrow evening otherwise horseshoe for steaks, gambling and LE would be solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 A part of me wants to go out and experience this event. However, I'm not sold on it quite yet. I want some stronger signals that it will sit and dump. A band that is transient in nature will not be worth the trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Will probably be a wait and see thing tomorrow afternoon/evening if I and others head a bit east. Timing isn't great. Don't feel like being up in the middle of the night. Would take a good single band to get me over there. Joe you heading out for this? I have thought about it. (Given I have always wanted to experience real LES) My main issue is my vehicle is absolutely horrible in the snow. Secondary issue is i'm not off work until 7, but that's not too big of a deal given the main event will be after that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 A part of me wants to go out and experience this event. However, I'm not sold on it quite yet. I want some stronger signals that it will sit and dump. A band that is transient in nature will not be worth the trip. Agreed. I'm probably not going unless it looks like double digit amounts are likely/imminent, which probably means it will be a last minute call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 18z NAM has some pretty brisk low level flow. I don't remember it looking this strong on previous runs. That could push the jackpot area a few or several miles inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Should be interesting at work tomorrow night. I work on the south east side. If this at all brushes the shore line i can be seeing limited snow here where I live (near Midway) and much heavier snow near where I work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 point for tomorrow up to 1-3....on track for the bronze medal event of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 LOT bumped up totals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 LOT bumped up totals... 6" zone looks a lot like my map from this morning, probably too agressive on the western edge though but these things change like crazy so whatever EDIT: I almost forgot, final calls. IMBY 1.5", at the office 2.5" take it to da $$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 looks like LOT is going all in, for a rare Chicago true LE event. LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT IS LIKELY FOR THE CITY OF CHICAGO AND THE SOUTH SUBURBS AS WELL AS FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA FROM MIDDAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 6 INCHES FOR THE CITY ALONG THE LAKE AND ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SIDES AS WELL AS THE SOUTH SUBURBS...WITH UP TO TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS LAKE AND PORTER COUNTY OF NORTHWEST IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 Don't have enough confidence to extend the 6" amounts into downtown Chicago yet but this will need to be watched to see if the band hangs up longer than expected. purple: 6+ dark blue: 3-6" light blue: 1-3" I think the jackpot is likely to come from somewhere in the pink area. Believe the band may spend the most time there. Didn't pay as much attention to the lighter amounts on the eastern side since that is farther out in time and the band will probably be decaying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 EDIT: I almost forgot, final calls. IMBY 1.5", at the office 2.5" take it to da $$$ Ballsy. I'll expect a dusting from some passing snow showers and don't expect the main band to quite brush the lakeshore north of the loop. Maybe I'll be pleasantly surprised. These setups are always too fickle to raise my expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Ballsy. I'll expect a dusting from some passing snow showers and don't expect the main band to quite brush the lakeshore north of the loop. Maybe I'll be pleasantly surprised. These setups are always too fickle to raise my expectations. Probably wont make it much west of western. I'll probably hang out downtown for the evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 From Tom Skilling's facebook page: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 Probably wont make it much west of western. I'll probably hang out downtown for the evening Do you remember the last event to produce 6" of pure lake effect downtown? The event last winter produced the most snow north of the city IIRC. 1/20/09 came up a little short. 1/22/05 was enhanced for a while so the question is where the line is between enhancement and pure lake effect. Other than that I can't remember anything in recent times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 from the LOT watch * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...WHILE LAKE EFFECT SNOW CAN BE HIGHLY LOCALIZED...CURRENT FORECASTS ARE FOR TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES IN FAR NORTHEAST COOK COUNTY...4 TO 7 INCHES ACROSS DOWNTOWN CHICAGO AND THE SOUTH SUBURBS...WITH 5 TO 8 INCHES FROM THE FAR SOUTHEAST SIDE OF CHICAGO EAST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE AND PORTER COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST INDIANA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 from the LOT watch * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...WHILE LAKE EFFECT SNOW CAN BE HIGHLY LOCALIZED...CURRENT FORECASTS ARE FOR TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES IN FAR NORTHEAST COOK COUNTY...4 TO 7 INCHES ACROSS DOWNTOWN CHICAGO AND THE SOUTH SUBURBS...WITH 5 TO 8 INCHES FROM THE FAR SOUTHEAST SIDE OF CHICAGO EAST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE AND PORTER COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST INDIANA. LOT is really going for high amounts in all of eastern Cook County! Areas like Highland Park & Highwood in Lake County might do ok from this event too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Do you remember the last event to produce 6" of pure lake effect downtown? The event last winter produced the most snow north of the city IIRC. 1/20/09 came up a little short. 1/22/05 was enhanced for a while so the question is where the line is between enhancement and pure lake effect. Other than that I can't remember anything in recent times. That was my best pure LES event here with #2 being I believe the Feb 2010 event? not too sure, would have to look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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