Hoosier Posted February 8, 2012 Author Share Posted February 8, 2012 Quick and dirty outline of my current thinking. Not comfortable enough to put numbers on this yet. red: best chance of significant accumulations orange: significant accumulations possible yellow: light amounts at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Quick and dirty outline of my current thinking. Not comfortable enough to put numbers on this yet. red: best chance of significant accumulations orange: significant accumulations possible yellow: light amounts at best Yeah I'm with you on the too early for amounts but do like Gary as the spot right now If i were to venture out for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 12z EURO shows lake effect plume starting up in this area and working it way to Lake Co., IN. A definite NNE/NE wind favorability for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Too early for amounts if you ask me. I'm fine with amounts in discussions, naso much point and clicks. Anyways I like LOTs early range if only because amounts beyond that are so rare. Early IMBY call of 1.5", should see some nice cloud formations from the office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Back in the day when I followed these lake events extensively, it seemed that the models (short and med range) liked to place the band too far west more often than not. Not saying this will happen, but it's something to watch. Also, if we can get a nice little convergent zone going, then this event might put out some decent amounts. Michigan City 12/2004 was a prime example of a dumping caused by a tight convergent zone. I remember waiting all day for that band to shift west, and it never did as it was supposed to. Obviously I'm not saying this puppy will drop 2', but it's something worth watching as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Back in the day when I followed these lake events extensively, it seemed that the models (short and med range) liked to place the band too far west more often than not. Not saying this will happen, but it's something to watch. very true and if it weren't lake events on this side wouldn't be as rare as they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 New lake effect graphic put out by LOT: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 00z NAM has a nice 925 mb omega bullseye in Porter county at 57-60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Tom Skilling's RPM model is favoring a little further west along the Cook County shoreline, Lake (IN). Maybe some lake effect here early on. Mentioned 3-5" for the Cook County shore areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 Tom Skilling's RPM model is favoring a little further west along the Cook County shoreline, Lake (IN). Maybe some lake effect here early on. Mentioned 3-5" for the Cook County shore areas. Looks like the NAM favors Cook/western Lake IN early on but then it really cranks overnight just to the east of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I'm liking VPZ's chances. This is a pretty textbook mid-lake Jacque le Plume setup for a fairly prolonged period Friday night-Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 STL WRF favors SE. Cook, E. Will, Lake(IN), W. Porter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 STL WRF favors SE. Cook, E. Will, Lake(IN), W. Porter. Looks like it spits out over .5 qpf in northern Lake county Indiana. Band takes on a weird look later in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 Wonder what ratios will be. Lake effect is notorious for having high ratios, and given the temp/omega profiles, I would guess that 20:1 or better may occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 With temperatures in the 20s and colder at cloud level, I would expect high snow ratios on the order of 20:1. I can't see them being any lower then say 17:1. It doesn't look like a pixie dust type snow event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 One thing to keep in mind is that the higher resolution models, for some reason I don't quite understand, often set up the band a bit farther west than it ends up being with these mid-lake band events. A due N wind from sfc-700 hPa would scream Porter County to me personally...maybe eastern Lake... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Under a watch, should see some nice squalls in the loop but best action will be well southeast, Tony and Keener are spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 12z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 12z RGEM starting to see some great consensus for a high quality NW Indiana hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 starting to see some great consensus for a high quality NW Indiana hit. I'm really liking the area between US 41 in Lake county IN and the western half of Porter county. I-65 is almost in the middle. I think some 6-10" amounts are possible in that area, maybe locally higher if the band stalls out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I'm really liking the area between US 41 in Lake county IN and the western half of Porter county. I-65 is almost in the middle. I think some 6-10" amounts are possible in that area, maybe locally higher if the band stalls out. I don't think any kind of prolonged stall looks likely but since the band looks to be very healthy for a short time, extreme 2"+ rates per hour will probably materialize so, yeah double digits could happen. Semi OT, but it would be nice if LE watches could be done similar to the way severe/tornado warnings are, since 98% of the area in LOTs Illinois warned counties won't see anywhere near 6" amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I don't think any kind of prolonged stall looks likely but since the band looks to be very healthy for a short time, extreme 2"+ rates per hour will probably materialize so, yeah double digits could happen. Semi OT, but it would be nice if LE watches could be done similar to the way severe/tornado warnings are, since 98% of the area in LOTs Illinois warned counties won't see anywhere near 6" amounts. I agree, I'd love to see polygonal LES warnings, but I doubt we'll ever see it come to fruition. I think offices enjoy the wiggle room of blanket warnings in case bands shift. The worst part is when an office knows that the majority of a county will get 2-5" but a small edge will get 8"+ ... so out go the warnings for the entire county and forecasted amounts get lost in translation by the time the public gets them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 I don't think any kind of prolonged stall looks likely but since the band looks to be very healthy for a short time, extreme 2"+ rates per hour will probably materialize so, yeah double digits could happen. Semi OT, but it would be nice if LE watches could be done similar to the way severe/tornado warnings are, since 98% of the area in LOTs Illinois warned counties won't see anywhere near 6" amounts. Agree. I think the IN counties probably get upgraded at some point and it will be interesting to see what they do with the IL counties. An advisory might make more sense there since almost none of those areas are likely to approach warning criteria as you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 ARW has two long fetch lines (western line never reaches the shore) that quickly merges into a nearly full length monster than drills NW Indiana with decent penetration. NMM similar but no dual band situation...weaker band grazes cook county and quickly shifts east...again with great penetration. Not expecting much here, but this could be a classic clear skies to the west with full sun out one window and dark skies out over the lake out the other, which is always awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 keep in mind this seems to have a west bias in these events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 ARW has two long fetch lines (western line never reaches the shore) that quickly merges into a nearly full length monster than drills NW Indiana with decent penetration. NMM similar but no dual band situation...weaker band grazes cook county and quickly shifts east...again with great penetration. Not expecting much here, but this could be a classic clear skies to the west with full sun out one window and dark skies out over the lake out the other, which is always awesome. Looks like the band snakes back toward Chicago at 45 hours per the ARW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Looks like the band snakes back toward Chicago at 45 hours per the ARW. ignoring based on well known bias. the only time these seems to wobble west is during weaker flows when we see meso low formation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 Interesting to see the NMM targeting the state line since it tends to not be as far west as the ARW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Interesting to see the NMM targeting the state line since it tends to not be as far west as the ARW. I think the take away for now is that they both show healthy bands with nearly a full lake length fetch and the possibility for serious amounts, albeit hyper localized. gary still looks like a good spot to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.