Scuddz Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 https://www.facebook...&type=1 at least he's consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 https://www.facebook...&type=1 Convection can rob the cold sector. The Alabama Tstorms are intersting thoughshortrange bust there at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 First radar hallucination of the storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 https://www.facebook...&type=1 Doesn't he do this every storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 First radar hallucination of the storm! Randomly people are hallucinating saying its better than we thought what the eff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 First radar hallucination of the storm! Randomly people are hallucinating saying its better than we thought what the eff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Doesn't he do this every storm? For the most part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Just think what would happen if that area of precip near Virginia Beach around hour 27 on the 0Z NAM could influence our accumulation potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Doesn't he do this every storm? people like snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 If its 33 at the surface and snowing hard in the afternoon after a morning high of 41, I expect much the same result as Saturday. I don't think the snow will be colder or more apt to accumulate because its 3C colder 5000' feet up. But since I have no education in the science, I'll anxiously await my 1-3" tomorrow and enjoy learning what a difference colder temps aloft can make. I don't expect you'll have a morning high of 41. Even if you did, a few hours won't greatly influence any ground temps. Whatever they are right now, I'd think they'd be close to that when the snow starts. I don't know anything about the science of it either, but I don't know why ground temps would be warmer tomorrow than they were Saturday. I think the +/- 2 degrees from Sat could come into play, and 2 less would have made a big difference and might tomorrow. BTW, when the snow started at my house on Sat. it was an unbelievable 40 degrees. Within an hour it was 34 with snow on the ground. At MRB, your temp is supposed to be 35.7 at the time the precip starts, with a dewpoint of about 30, and all the levels above you below freezing. Again, I don't know, but any decent rate of precip is going to cool that temp down a couple of degrees, and I'd think that precip falling through layers of air that are all below freezing would tend to pull down at least some of that air. Now by 0z you're modeled to be almost at freezing. Models are off a couple of degrees, you're below freezing. I'd think that your snow would accumulate rather easily at those temps. Maybe if I'm way off on the reasoning, somebody will correct my errors. I guess that's a long winded way of saying I think you've got a chance at a decent snow, better than Saturday. The NAM also spits out 0.23 for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 people like snow If that area of moisture feed was legit and continued...would it really change things all that much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 people like snow What does that NJ/NYWeather (something like that) guy think about this storm? He always thought the models were missing something big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Nothing has really changed since this morning except the nam is a little warmer than the 12Z run and not quite as wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I don't expect you'll have a morning high of 41. Even if you did, a few hours won't greatly influence any ground temps. Whatever they are right now, I'd think they'd be close to that when the snow starts. I don't know anything about the science of it either, but I don't know why ground temps would be warmer tomorrow than they were Saturday. I think the +/- 2 degrees from Sat could come into play, and 2 less would have made a big difference and might tomorrow. BTW, when the snow started at my house on Sat. it was an unbelievable 40 degrees. Within an hour it was 34 with snow on the ground. At MRB, your temp is supposed to be 35.7 at the time the precip starts, with a dewpoint of about 30, and all the levels above you below freezing. Again, I don't know, but any decent rate of precip is going to cool that temp down a couple of degrees, and I'd think that precip falling through layers of air that are all below freezing would tend to pull down at least some of that air. Now by 0z you're modeled to be almost at freezing. Models are off a couple of degrees, you're below freezing. I'd think that your snow would accumulate rather easily at those temps. Maybe if I'm way off on the reasoning, somebody will correct my errors. I guess that's a long winded way of saying I think you've got a chance at a decent snow, better than Saturday. The NAM also spits out 0.23 for you. I had 0.25" on Saturday, but I lost some to rain at the onset. Your points are valid and I too am hoping for a snowier solution this time. Guess we'll see how it works out. I'd like to see some other models get wetter before I'd buy the NAM. BTW- I've managed to get to 31.5 now after a high of 52. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Anyone else having trouble with the CWG site. I get to it but then it is blank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I had 0.25" on Saturday, but I lost some to rain at the onset. Your points are valid and I too am hoping for a snowier solution this time. Guess we'll see how it works out. I'd like to see some other models get wetter before I'd buy the NAM. I had .28 liquid equiv. on Saturday and got an inch and change in snow but it was heavy for awhile, this despite temps around 40 degrees at the outset and only down to 34 by the time it ended... Somehow I don't think it will snow as hard tomorrow as it did on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Anyone else having trouble with the CWG site. I get to it but then it is blank. Nope it works fine for me, it must be something on your end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I had .28 liquid equiv. on Saturday and got an inch and change in snow but it was heavy for awhile, this despite temps around 40 degrees at the outset and only down to 34 by the time it ended... Somehow I don't think it will snow as hard tomorrow as it did on Saturday. I don't measure the precip, but a local weather station put my area at 0.24 for the weekend. I had precip from 3 pm sat to about 10 am sunday. It wasn't heavy the whole time, but it never stopped either (unless it did in the middle of the night). That's 19 hours worth. This is supposed to give (NAM) 0.2 or so in a 6 hour period tomorrow (my area). I would think it may snow harder tomorrow than it did Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Nope it works fine for me, it must be something on your end. Thanks, it's back up for me so I thinnk it was their end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 GFS not looking too good through 15 hours, dryer and a weaker vort, precip going north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Thanks to MN Transplant and my new toy, the SREF plumes have increased snow for every location I checked. For KOKV, me, it has a mean at about 2 inches, with a high approaching 4. It shows a little more for WV climo. It has a mean of about an inch for IAD, and about 0.5 for DC. It also shows a little snow for Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Anyone else having trouble with the CWG site. I get to it but then it is blank. that's the snow forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 phineas might score the coup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 GFS not looking too good through 15 hours, dryer and a weaker vort, precip going north. looks like cr@p if you ask me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 looks like cr@p if you ask me slower, that may be part of it on 2nd look, but still too warm for my liking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 phineas might score the coup I am looking for a dusting and a burst of moderate snow tomorrow as I look out my office window. That's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 the vort kinda splits.. throw it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 meh this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I am looking for a dusting and a burst of moderate snow tomorrow as I look jump out my office window. That's it. fixed to make the weenies feel love Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 the vort kinda splits.. throw it out can we really? I was thinking that doesn't make sense its not on any of the previous runs, it doesn't make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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