mitchnick Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 keeps getting better http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F08%2F2012+00UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=700_rh_ht&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=024&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 eh it looks quite a bit like 18z at 500.. microanalyzing ftl http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F08%2F2012+00UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=sim_radar&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=024&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I'd stick with the mid-level vort, best snow will fall north of that track, regarding upper-level jets pay attention to the left exit region or the right entrance region. So, with the jet max depicted below, Martinsburg is affected by the left exit if I have the nomenclature correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=L i think it's just a little slower to push precip in and out even if 500 looks similar. 24 hour totals around us look lower than prior but it still ongoing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 surface still warmish would like to see it cooler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F08%2F2012+00UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p24&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=027&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I would be shocked if my forecast from NWS actually verified, everything that falls would have to be accumulating snow for this to have a chance to happen. Wednesday: Snow, mainly after 10am. High near 39. East wind between 3 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Wednesday Night: A chance of snow before 10pm. Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 28. North wind between 3 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=L similar look and max.. shifted north a bit tho from 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 similar look and max.. shifted north a bit tho from 18z Minute difference, i don't really think that max can be nailed down until game time, but the vort looked pretty good and some uvv's could help us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 So, with the jet max depicted below, Martinsburg is affected by the left exit if I have the nomenclature correct? it's a bit more broad than to say it affects a specific region...i don't have time to go into quasi-geostrophic theory (watching election results) but maybe some other time..it's a weak system that's the main takeaway,,,the more elevation the better, N and NW of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 similar look and max.. shifted north a bit tho from 18z this is probably the more accurate one, but not much different http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Paramℑ=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fnam%2F20120208%2F00%2Fnam_namer_030_precip_p24_l.gif&fcast=030&imagesurls=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p24&cycle=02%2F08%2F2012+00UTC&imageSize=L&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=114&nextImage=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 My thoughts on 'paper'. Definitely would like comments/criticisms. Still working to understand alot of the terrain in the western part of the LWX area. Anything under the 1" may have accum's but less than an one inch. Your elevation snows are probably a bit far east. The very western edge of Allegany County, Md is where that comes into play. Also your light pink 3" line would probably shift west to the eastern Allegany Co. line in a climo situation. Thanks for the effort. I miss members' forecast maps. We used to have a lot more of it back in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 this is probably the more accurate one, but not much different http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Paramℑ=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fnam%2F20120208%2F00%2Fnam_namer_030_precip_p24_l.gif&fcast=030&imagesurls=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p24&cycle=02%2F08%2F2012+00UTC&imageSize=L&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=114&nextImage=yes Were kinda close to the fail zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 yep, said it was warmish and this map is usually generous on snow, isn't it? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znamsnow_NE030.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 lwx must expect 10:1+ ratios and all liquid to accumulate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 lwx must expect 10:1+ ratios and all liquid to accumulate Apparently so, it would be nothing short of a miracle if it verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 yep, said it was warmish and this map is usually generous on snow, isn't it? http://raleighwx.ame...msnow_NE030.gif I'll take it, but only because I'm north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 yep, said it was warmish and this map is usually generous on snow, isn't it? http://raleighwx.ame...msnow_NE030.gif Just a degree or two could be big as far as accumulations. I'd think it difficult for a model to be so accurate wrt temps that you wouldn't have reasonable hope of it just maybe being that couple of degrees colder. Of course, it works in the other direction as well. I still say give us the precip, good rates, take our chances with temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I think if you set your expectations at a dusting with a few hours of moderate snow this event can deliver. It will be snowing well in the afternoon tomorrow. That is something at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Just a degree or two could be big as far as accumulations. I'd think it difficult for a model to be so accurate wrt temps that you wouldn't have reasonable hope of it just maybe being that couple of degrees colder. Of course, it works in the other direction as well. I still say give us the precip, good rates, take our chances with temps. Ditto, radiational cooling could do us a little favor overnight tonight and the rates could help us a bit with cold upper levels potentially being mixed down thanks to vertical velocities and decent rates, good rates evap cool the column, I agree give us as much qpf as we can squeeze out and go from there on the nowcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I'm in Philly this week, and they are calling for mainly rain here until tomorrow night. Less than an inch accumulation. How could we get less than DC? Berk's map would suggest 2-3 if you extrapolated... Need more than an inch in Philly to overcome the city-wide sheen of sludge and slime on paved surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Ditto, radiational cooling could do us a little favor overnight tonight and the rates could help us a bit with cold upper levels potentially being mixed down thanks to vertical velocities and decent rates, good rates evap cool the column, I agree give us as much qpf as we can squeeze out and go from there on the nowcast. i was 7 degrees colder Friday night at this time than I am tonight. I had nice rates and higher QPF on Saturday than expected tomorrow, not withstanding the good NAM run tonight. Afternoon temps are modeled tomorrow almost exactly as they verified Saturday. And I accumulated less than an inch. The profile is colder this time, so it will be interesting to measure what difference that makes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 i was 7 degrees colder Friday night at this time than I am tonight. I had nice rates and higher QPF on Saturday than expected tomorrow, not withstanding the good NAM run tonight. Afternoon temps are modeled tomorrow almost exactly as they verified Saturday. And I accumulated less than an inch. The profile is colder this time, so it will be interesting to measure what difference that makes. I don't think we can equate one with the other. I don't know about all levels, but this time the 850s are defintely colder. We may be warmer right now than Friday night, but we also had some broken sunshine Sat. morning so it may all end up about even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 So, with the jet max depicted below, Martinsburg is affected by the left exit if I have the nomenclature correct? Yes but left exit region is usually very broad hence it's poor for predicting exact heavy precip maxes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Updated AFD from LWX is pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Did I mention I work at KHGR. If not haha I get 2 inches and you only get 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I don't think we can equate one with the other. I don't know about all levels, but this time the 850s are defintely colder. We may be warmer right now than Friday night, but we also had some broken sunshine Sat. morning so it may all end up about even. If its 33 at the surface and snowing hard in the afternoon after a morning high of 41, I expect much the same result as Saturday. I don't think the snow will be colder or more apt to accumulate because its 3C colder 5000' feet up. But since I have no education in the science, I'll anxiously await my 1-3" tomorrow and enjoy learning what a difference colder temps aloft can make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 https://www.facebook...&type=1 honestly, I saw that already (w/o seeing it on JB facebook), but there are very, very few surface reports of precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 https://www.facebook...&type=1 he should be showing this map...look at all those sites reporting precip... http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/2012020802_metars_mgm.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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