BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 LWX going bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 LWX is probably overdone, once again, as is Berk. I'd honestly love to see 2", but I don't think it's happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Their usual late game over forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 LWX going bullish Pretty sad winter when we call an inch bullish. But you don't think we could pull an area wide inch excluding the pavement? Thickness isn't terrible, 850s look ok and the vort looks okay as modeled. surface is not great but only a shallow layer. QPF has marginally increased since yesterday. An inch west of 95 is not totally silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Justin Berk's New Map LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Their usual late game over forecast. Does anyone have a blank version of that LWX snow map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Pretty sad winter when we call an inch bullish. But you don't think we could pull an area wide inch excluding the pavement? Thickness isn't terrible, 850s look ok and the vort looks okay as modeled. surface is not great but only a shallow layer. QPF has marginally increased since yesterday. An inch west of 95 is not totally silly. I dont see an inch occuring that far south..overnight temps only drop to 35-40 there and wont get below 35 during the event...Not only it will probably start as rain south of DC, maybe even DC proper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Does anyone have a blank version of that LWX snow map? We don't need you to make a forecast map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 We don't need you to make a forecast map. He has the right to share his thoughts, as long as he backs them up with facts and logic. There's no need to put people down like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I'm in Philly this week, and they are calling for mainly rain here until tomorrow night. Less than an inch accumulation. How could we get less than DC? Berk's map would suggest 2-3 if you extrapolated... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I dont see an inch occuring that far south..overnight temps only drop to 35-40 there and wont get below 35 during the event...Not only it will probably start as rain south of DC, maybe even DC proper I kind of agree that far east but not necessarily south. I am sitting at 38 in west PW after coming home at 5 to a temp of 54. If I were making that map I would shave it back from SE back to the NW about 15 or 20 miles from the bottom of the 1 inch line based on the 18z models. I think if the 850s are modeled correctly the temps will end up a touch lower. I am just posting for conversation and am probably wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I really never look at the lwx snowfall maps. Are they automated computer output generated? They look like they are. If so, I don't think it's wise to use them as guidance with events like this. Sure it could easily snow the equivalent of an inch but by the time it's done melting on the warm ground and getting tortured by the blazing feb sun angle there will never be a measurable inch on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I'm in Philly this week, and they are calling for mainly rain here until tomorrow night. Less than an inch accumulation. How could we get less than DC? Berk's map would suggest 2-3 if you extrapolated... Extrapolating maps made by local mets to outside areas isn't a good idea. And yes, sometimes Philly gets less than DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I really never look at the lwx snowfall maps? Are they automated computer output generated? They look like they are. If so, I don't think it's wise to use them as guidance with events like this. Sure it could easily snow the equivalent of an inch but by the time it's done melting on the warm ground and getting tortured by the blazing feb sun angle there will never be a measurable inch on the ground. I guess like most events we'll be either surprised or disgusted....but it will be fun to track the snow, drink beer and post the play by play...to me that is the best part of winter and I wish we could do it more often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 this is my forecast.. im expecting a se trend and most of the snow to fall while passing dc lol- if your scale is in micometers you may even bust low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Justin Berk's New Map Move everything NW 10 miles and cut the accumulations in half. Follow the 850 mb vorticity...it weakens as it crosses the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 btw there's a blank map on the winter storm page if you look at the timeline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Move everything NW 10 miles and cut the accumulations in half. Follow the 850 mb vorticity...it weakens as it crosses the mountains. why are you tracking 850 mb vorticity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 thru 12 the nam is drier out west but the vort looks about the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 My thoughts on 'paper'. Definitely would like comments/criticisms. Still working to understand alot of the terrain in the western part of the LWX area. Anything under the 1" may have accum's but less than an one inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Nam thru 15 dry...dry. Random fail RSM was very good on ewall lol Edit: Run not good if you loved the NAM before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 why are you tracking 850 mb vorticity? I'm guessing that the best lifting mechanism is just north of the 850 mb low. Of course, with this system, it is more of an open wave. What do you think? Something tells me a meteorologist will suggest that the 300 mb jet max trying to carve a trough is the more specific lifting mechanism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 My thoughts on 'paper'. Definitely would like comments/criticisms. Still working to understand alot of the terrain in the western part of the LWX area. Anything under the 1" may have accum's but less than an one inch. Remove the 3" zone, and be mindful of the topography around Frederick, the Blue Ridge mts, and Carroll county. Otherwise it looks reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I'm guessing that the best lifting mechanism is just north of the 850 mb low. Of course, with this system, it is more of an open wave. What do you think? Something tells me a meteorologist will suggest that the 300 mb jet max trying to carve a trough is the more specific lifting mechanism. I'd stick with the mid-level vort, best snow will fall north of that track, regarding upper-level jets pay attention to the left exit region or the right entrance region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 vort track on 0z nam does look very good if you ask me, precip should at least be a bit more expansive around here. A good run vort wise at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 ooow,5 spot circle over DCA/BWI at 21 hrs http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F08%2F2012+00UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=700_rh_ht&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=021&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 it's slower with the precip around here it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 gunna be pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 ooow,5 spot circle over DCA/BWI at 21 hrs http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=L decent rate would be expected with that and UL snow growth. good sign mitch, and vort looks pretty good if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 eh it looks quite a bit like 18z at 500.. microanalyzing ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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