Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Mix of boredom and desperation. im hoping for 30:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Latest from LWX: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Mix of boredom and desperation. That and its feb and it could be equivalent to 1/3 of our current seasonal total... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 http://www.spc.nssl....per/sref/plume/ Great link. Thanks for sharing. Funny thing, for Winchester, the mean temp went up about a degree from 9z to 15z, but the snow mean went up from about 1 to about 1.5 and the max went from 3 to about 3.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 i can't believe the analysis over .05" qpf differences dude, it's like the biggest event of the year and stuff. pins and needles man. lol I think at the end of the day we all know what to expect (well, at least the majority of us). One thing that is very important for setting expectations is remembering how these things have gone in the past. It's not a juicy and energetic vort. Just look at radar right now. There is nothing that can really "jazz it up" as Wes described earlier suspect nam runs. . It's not like it's going to all of a sudden drop .4"+ on us. There just nothing going on dynamically to support anything like that. The reality is somewhere around .25 best case. Not great surface temps and a limited period of good rates. Put this all together and most of us will be lucky to get more than 1.5" anywhere until you hit the more favored spots with some elevation and cooler temps to start. I think mby best case is 1". Of course I hope I'm wrong but setting realistic expectations is a good way to not get 5 posted or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Frankly, the 18Z GFS just looks like a little snizzle to me. I think this threat is pretty much toast if you expected more than a cartopper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Frankly, the 18Z GFS just looks like a little snizzle to me. I think this threat is pretty much toast if you expected more than a cartopper. I disagree. It looks like a classic elevation based situation. And would be my 2nd biggest of the season after October. If I can manage 3 inches out of this it would also put me at double digits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I disagree. It looks like a classic elevation based situation. And would be my 2nd biggest of the season after October. If I can manage 3 inches out of this it would also put me at double digits I was just talking about central MD and NoVA. I have no opinion on the boonies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I was just talking about central MD and NoVA. I have no opinion on the boonies. I could see us squeeze out 1" especially for you in Kingsville, granted mainly on the colder surfaces though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 im hoping for 30:1 ratios What is this a trend. Us old guys can't read it. 30000-1 raatios is that what you mean??????? If we get that and the temp drops 3 or 4 degrees lower than forecast and its ku city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I disagree. It looks like a classic elevation based situation. And would be my 2nd biggest of the season after October. If I can manage 3 inches out of this it would also put me at double digits 3" is a bit agressive imo but I do think your area will end up with one of the higher totals around these parts. westminster - manchester corridor will prob be the sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 looks like the CWG 1-2 is going to bust? It would be nice it you actually read the articles. Your trolling is getting worse as that was not our forecast. Your starting to become the new BB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 What is this a trend. Us old guys can't read it. 30000-1 raatios is that what you mean??????? If we get that and the temp drops 3 or 4 degrees lower than forecast and its ku city. The board software upgrade sucks. It always selects the x(squared) button and makes type small. So you're calling for a KU now. Cool! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I disagree. It looks like a classic elevation based situation. And would be my 2nd biggest of the season after October. If I can manage 3 inches out of this it would also put me at double digits Classic has been downgrades it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The board software upgrade sucks. It always selects the x(squared) button and makes type small. So you're calling for a KU now. Cool! Is that what I wrote? I couldn't read it when I wrote it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 It would be nice it you actually read the articles. Your trolling is getting worse as that was not our forecast. Your starting to become the new BB. Burn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 dude, it's like the biggest event of the year and stuff. pins and needles man. lol I think at the end of the day we all know what to expect (well, at least the majority of us). One thing that is very important for setting expectations is remembering how these things have gone in the past. It's not a juicy and energetic vort. Just look at radar right now. There is nothing that can really "jazz it up" as Wes described earlier suspect nam runs. . It's not like it's going to all of a sudden drop .4"+ on us. There just nothing going on dynamically to support anything like that. The reality is somewhere around .25 best case. Not great surface temps and a limited period of good rates. Put this all together and most of us will be lucky to get more than 1.5" anywhere until you hit the more favored spots with some elevation and cooler temps to start. I think mby best case is 1". Of course I hope I'm wrong but setting realistic expectations is a good way to not get 5 posted or something like that. It's cool but I think down to the .1" level you're running into forgivable error on the models. So, when you're debating .15" v .2" it's sorta difficult to say whether it's worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Burn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Is that what I wrote? I couldn't read it when I wrote it. I like your giddy snowstorm mood. It's gonna be a biggy! If not, you're in trouble... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I like your giddy snowstorm mood. It's gonna be a biggy! If not, you're in trouble... I'll be happy to see any white on the ground. I think you're right about the debates and worries about .05". for the models the differences are pretty small. I'd worry more about the temp differences though I could see them busting either side of the model forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I'll be happy to see any white on the ground. I think you're right about the debates and worries about .05". for the models the differences are pretty small. I'd worry more about the temp differences though I could see them busting either side of the model forecasts. I'm hoping we can get some to stick by sunsetish.. see how much is left to come at that point. GFS MOS is toasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I'll be happy to see any white on the ground. I think you're right about the debates and worries about .05". for the models the differences are pretty small. I'd worry more about the temp differences though I could see them busting either side of the model forecasts. I think the only good news about temps is that the models have repeatedly been running warm this season for those few locations that did manage to find themselves under a heavier bursts of snow, like on 1/9 and this past Saturday. It was a pleasant surprise for snow to stick on the road surfaces during daylight hours on 1/9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 00z will be telling At 00z, someone will post 6z will be telling And at 6z, sonmeone will post 12z will be telling This happens every friggen storm or nonevent. /Rant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Not liking the clouds gathering on the SW horizon here this early. Was hoping for some good radiational cooling this evening to take away some balmy air. 45/26 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Help!! I know this isn't the thread for board questions, but I'll get an answer here faster, then I'll delete it. All of a sudden, when I open the thread, it's hiding posts from everyone unless I "subscribe" and add them as a friend. Did I somehow screw up my settings or is my computer wacked or what? I'll delete this as soon as I know what's happening. Thanks somebody. When u clicked the menu bar at the top for models u clicked the subscribe option behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Thanks Grothar and Tracker. I deleted the post. The chance for snow has got me frazzled. On the bright side, I picked up a few new friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 It's cool but I think down to the .1" level you're running into forgivable error on the models. So, when you're debating .15" v .2" it's sorta difficult to say whether it's worth it. Reminds me of when you see guys zoom in on the 100HR GFS to look at the 850 zero line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Beautiful full moon and crisp sky this evening in advance of the pseudo event tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted February 8, 2012 Author Share Posted February 8, 2012 New lwx map gives almost everyone an inch and far western areas a nice swath of two inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Justin Berk's New Map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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